| So I've run through all the campaign finance reports for the reported candidates for office. Mike Levy, while much rumored, hasn't filed to run, and Oak Hill resident Sandy Baldrige is saying she wants to run against Bill Spelman, but no action to actually follow up those claims on the finance front. In any case, below are a couple of different measures of how you can compare the candidates. Incumbents running for re-election to their own offices are in bold.
Cash on Hand
The only thing order-wise that changes if you sort by total funds raised during the period is that incumbent Sheryl Cole moves from 4th to 2nd and incumbent Mike Martinez moves from 2nd to 4th.
Overall: I was mostly right in what I've said to friends that I doubted anyone would end up having more than $25,000. I was wrong about Carole Strayhorn but I didn't think she would end up deciding to run. And while Chris Riley didn't end up with more than $25,000 cash on hand, he did raise more than $25,000 so congrats to him.
Mayor: Overall, I'm a little surprised to see Brewster's fundraising more on par with that of the Place 1 candidates and lagging behind that of Carole. Of course, that could just be because his main fundraiser isn't until later this month, but still, it makes the argument against Leffingwell rather irrelevant (that his delay in getting in will put him far behind in the money race). The Draft Lee PAC certainly is not acting as a real shadow campaign in terms of fundraising, but remember, it cannot transfer funds to Lee's Mayoral account once he files so there is no use in building up tens of thousands of dollars on it that would have to be spent independently of the official campaign. Of course, I also think that Strayhorn and Levy could spent lots of money and get far fewer votes than McCracken and Leffingwell so it could just all be a wash. This report tells us very little in the Mayor's race.
Place 1: My ballpark guess in this race was that the fundraising order would be Riley, Cavazos, then Cofer with totals around $20k, $15k, and then $10k. Both Chris Riley and Rick Cofer exceeded those expectations by a reasonable amount and in the end, they indeed are separated by no more than $10,000. Cofer was the last candidate in this race to announce, and with only 2 weeks to fundraise with Christmas killing about a week of that, nearly tieing Cavazos is worthy of note. I should clarify this point as all 3 candidates filed in the 2nd week of December. What I was trying to get at was that Chris was actively exploring this race and making calls months before he filed (I got an early call when I was in the Strama office before the November election) and Perla was actively talking about it in November, whereas I know Cofer didn't make the decision to run until the first week of December, shortly before he filed because he texted me about it.
Does this report create a frontrunner? I don't know. Last year, in the open Place 4 race, the first report went Morrison, Galindo, Cravey with $21k, $14k, and $12k. Randi Shade led incumbent Jennifer Kim $69k to $44k. Of course all of those were running earlier and in this period, the fundraising period was truncated by a presidential election, late filing, and a bad economy (even though the max contribution limit has increased from $300 to $350).
But if convention wisdom must be set, than I figure it's Cofer and Cavazos competing more with each other to secure a spot in a runoff with Chris Riley.
Place 5: This is all about Bill Spelman. Which is pretty easy to say since there is no sign of his "declared" regional opponent as of yet from Oak Hill. A lot of the same caveats apply as in the Place 5 race (Bill filed with about 3 weeks to fundraise) and it's a hard sell to get people to give you money when (at the time) there was no opponent. So this could end up like the Leffingwell-Meeker race in 2008. Lots of bluster from the 2nd tier candidate, but probably not a whole lot of electoral action with a healthy win.
Other Places: Mike Martinez doesn't have a declared opponent. Sam Osemene is running against Sheryl (he ran for Place 4 against Morrison/Galindo/Cravey last year) but he hasn't filed any report as he appointed his treasurer in January; but if he runs like last time, he won't be a factor other than a repository of votes for people who don't want to vote for Sheryl.
Here are some other interesting breakdowns.
Disclosure: I am listed as having donated $300 of in-kind website development services to the Spelman campaign. |
