Everyone Needs to Calm the Hell Down About 2010

2010 Governor's race (0.00 / 0)

All of the good candidates are lining up to run for Senate where they have a chance. The usual suspects (Gene Kelly, Outlaw Josey Wales, etc.) will be running for governor where they a ghost of a chance. KBH whipped Barb with 64% of the vote. You can twist perception, reality won't budge.

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by: Bluefish @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 11:15:51 AM UTC

That 64% (0.00 / 0)

That 64% is very interesting and very revealing since obviously there were Democrats who voted for Two Hats Hutchison instead of Barbara Radnofsky. Draw your own conclusions but obviously there is still some prejudice at work in the party that is supposedly free of prejudice. The same thing happened in Harris County with regard to David Mincberg.  Some still believe everyone should stay in their place. And leave the party to the good old white Christian  boys in the backroom. As for "women voting for women" do Democratic women really believe that Kay Bailey Hutchison is "one of them?" She may wear two hats. Neither of them is Democratic.

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by: Baby Snooks @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 14:16:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's ok phillip (2.00 / 1)

The odds of vast numbers of real Democrats taking their political cues from a travel, restaurant, and bar review magazine are slim to none.

Face it: Perry's a tough campaigner. Hutchison will have to be as well. By the end of that Republican primary, Perry will be (accurately) assigned blame to ever real ill the State of Texas has been inflicted with over the years, and Hutchison will be (accurately) assigned blame for every national policy disaster under her watch in D.C. as well.

The eventual Republican nominee will emerge from his or her primary bruised and battered. The Democrats will have a credible nominee, and that person will have the funds necessary to compete.

Those chattering about writing off an important statewide race two years before it happens lack a fundamental understanding of the ever-shifting winds of electoral attitudes.

And while I don't think so, everything I've written above might be wrong. But if it is, it's coincidence, because nobody really knows. But guess what - anybody who thinks they know the opposite is blowing smoke too. Relax. We're in the ball game, and we should concede absolutely nothing.

LettersFromTexas.com

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by: Harold Cook @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 16:16:10 PM UTC

Reality won't budge (0.00 / 0)

So far two credible candidates have stepped forward to run for Senate (White and Sharp) that can raise money. So far zero candidates are running for governor. Maybe you know something the rest of us don't. Am I missing something from
the '94, '98, '02, '06 Governor races?  

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by: Bluefish @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 16:34:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Are you serious? (0.00 / 0)

The race is 23 months away! All the credible candidates? You think all that Texas has to offer is John Sharp and Bill White? Are we living in the 1980's?

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 17:14:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's partial news, but it's bad partial news (0.00 / 0)

Of course there's going to be a Democratic nominee for governor, and it may turn out to be somebody good. But we know for sure that the two biggest guns we have (White and Sharp) won't be in the race. We also know that a bunch of other candidates are making noise about running for senator, but nobody is saying anything about governor. That's very, very bad.

For the party, the governor's race is 10 times more important than the senate race, since the governor's race has coattails while the (stand-alone special election) senate race doesn't. A lousy senate candidate just means a lost senate election, something that would probably happen anyway. A lousy gubernatorial candidate would kill the Lege for the 2011 redistricting session.

A lot can happen in 23 months, but we're off to a rotten start.  

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by: LSadun @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 17:36:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

And I think (3.00 / 1)

Our expectations are way out of wack.

This will sound weird coming from a blogger -- but who cares if we're 23 months out? Are things decided this early? Is there anyone that will be raising serious money between now and six months from now, or doing any serious campaigning between now and six months from now, that we're somehow missing out on? Nope.

It's getting to the point where we have this 24-hour news cycle, and we always need something to talk about. There's nothing to talk about right now, so we've chosen to complain about something two years away from the day. That's ridiculous. One comment/post/story, fine. But that people are actually worried about this (and that the TX Monthly crew thinks this is a big deal) is ridiculous. Everyone "knew" this was Hillary's race in 2007. Look at where we are today.

There's a line from a great Steve Goodman song -- "I can't predict the future, and I can't change the past, but I know it will all make sense, if you love me in the present tense." It'd be a good one to listen to this holiday season.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 19:17:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is early but our track record has been pretty bad (5.00 / 1)

Phillip I agree that this is early but the speculation cycle has started and a lot of the posters are right, the two big guns have committed to the Senate race at this point. Besides we haven't exactly fielded the heavy hitters during the past two statewide cycles. Heck, Chris Bell couldn't even win his local race. Ever since Gov. Richards lost we have sucked at the top slot.

The next election is in 2010 and the fundraising needs to start pretty soon. Statewide races unfortunately don't have the limits that the federal or most cities impose. If KBH does stick to her guns and jump to the gubernatorial race then that's a big hill to climb.

I'm looking down the list and not seeing any heavy hitters that could take on a KBH or the Hairdo. One good point that someone made is that if KBH does jump that opens up another seat that could create the filibuster proof Senate after Franken's victory. I'm not sure the Rs want to risk that so KBH may stay in seat for a cycle.

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by: RBearSAT @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:25:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

the "two biggest guns we have"? (0.00 / 0)

Both are relatively strong candidates (particularly White), but I wouldn't rule out the possibility that there are a few Texas Democrats who could do better.

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by: David Mauro @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:21:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Names, names (0.00 / 0)

David/Phillip who are they? I'm not sure who would be good statewide. Most of our guys other than White or Sharp are local heroes that don't play the statewide circuit very well.

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by: RBearSAT @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:27:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I named three of them (0.00 / 0)

Watson. Van de Putte. Edwards.

They all have more than "local" name ID. They all would be good statewide. They all can play the statewide circuit incredibly well. Edwards works great everywhere, especially in the moderate middle of the state. Van de Putte will dominate in new growth areas (where the moderates are) and has the firepower to deliver real change. Watson has the charisma and the money to make it happen.

And no -- they don't need to announce now just for those people to be credible. We've got at least the session.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:40:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

VDP is a non-starter (5.00 / 1)

Many comments in other entries about VDP. She's good locally but that's about it. Only die-hard Ds really know about her. Go poll your moderate Bubbas and see if they even know about her.

Watson possibly but I think he'd be another Chris Bell. Edwards I'll give you if he does run but I believe he'll stay put and secure that seat which would most likely go R if he leaves.

You know I think part of the reason we seem to lose at the statewide level is we don't get out of the house enough. By house I mean the safe D spots. In a year when we could have kicked butt with Noriega running against Bush's lapdog with Obama at the top of the ticket we lost that race soundly. So give me a playbook that's any different. I think that's why a lot of people are calling this race early. They aren't seeing any different playbook other than what we've rolled out every year.

BTW, in your down blog comment go read some polling data. The data I've seen and the moderates I've talked to like her, definitely more than the Hairdo. With lines like "politicians from the past peddling old ideas that are a part of the problem today" it's no wonder we lose every time. Look I'm ready to get serious on this but I need to see some serious new ideas before I have the confidence. I think that's why you see the comments you do in this blog entry. We're not seeing anything that's giving us confidence. It's like we keep trotting out the old Christmas decorations every year because it's traditional and we're Democrats. Take a cue from Ford, GM and Chrysler. The old ideas may need some rework.

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by: RBearSAT @ Tue Dec 23, 2008 at 00:30:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Edwards maybe, but not Watson or LVP (5.00 / 2)

Kirk Watson is a great state senator, and would make a great governor, but he's not that strong a statewide candidate. He'd be instantly pegged as an "Austin liberal", and that plays really badly in most of the state. As for coattails, his running would be great for Valinda Bolton and Diana Maldonado, but not very good for anybody running more than 30 miles from the capitol building. Better for him to stay in the State Senate.

LVP has been discussed elsewhere.

Chet Edwards would be a strong candidate, but is there any evidence that he is interested?

Look, there are candidates out there, and we're not limited to White and Sharp. But when you desperately need a strong candidate to lead the ticket and the two most obvious names take themselves out of contention, it's bad news. A lot can happen in 23 months, but the odds of our taking back the Texas House in 2010 are a lot longer than they were a week ago.

Some people suggest that KBH won't run for governor for fear of giving the Dems a 60th Senate seat. Do you really think she cares that much?! She wants to come home, and she wants to be governor, and nothing that Mike McConnell or (RSCC chair) John Cornyn can say will change that.

Finally, I never suggested that KBH is invincible. Just the opposite. With a strong candidate and a lot of luck (like a brutal GOP primary and a good job by Obama), we could win the governorship and we could bring out enough voters to win the Texas House. Which is why it's so frustrating to see potential candidates abandon the effort to go after a hopeless senate seat.  

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by: LSadun @ Tue Dec 23, 2008 at 03:37:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Start acting like Democrats instead of commentators (5.00 / 1)

I agree with completely Phil and Harold Cook. In fact, none of you know that Sharp or White won't run for Governor. They've done the paperwork for the Senate because it takes a long time ot raise money under federal limits, but they could transfer all that federal money to a state race.

Fact is, there may not even be a Senate race until 2012, against Kay or some other tired old Republican parroting the same ideological caca that got us in this mess in Washington and Austin. We barely finished 2008 and some of you are "deciding" our fate for 2010, over a year before the filing deadline. In politics, that can be two or three lifetimes. As Harold said, Perry will spend that year laying the blame on Kay, justifiably, for all the mess she helped get us into in D.C., and we should join him. Kay will lay it on Perry for the mess he made in Texas, and we should join her.

I challenge all of you to quit sitting behind a keyboard acting like a talking head or commentator and start acting like Democratic messengers. It's not about being smart by predicting what will happen, it's about making something happen. It's about winning instead of whining. Let's use the internet to communicate our message, which is really simple.

Both Rick and Kay are Republican politicains from the past peddling old ideas that are part of the problem today. We'll have a candidate, and it will be a Democrat prepared to bring people together to solve problems. And if we do our work, it could be one of the two folks who are talking about the Senate or maybe even someone better.

For heaven's sake, instead of following the commentators, let's remember how to win and lead public opinion for a change. That would make for a very Happy New Year.    

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by: Ed Martin @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 22:04:30 PM UTC

You're totally correct, but you forgot one thing (2.00 / 1)

Bloggers are commentators.  It's what they do.  Many are activists also but right now, they are bloggers and commentators, with no campaigns or legislation sessions in progress.  

Once the Lege and Congress gear up, no doubt there will be more productive topics of conversation.  But Christmas season is, recreationally speaking, silly season.  You don't believe me, go turn on any network TV show tonight, or check out the movies in the theaters.  Bilgewater, all of it.  

So I'd cut the bloggers some slack, but I am certainly noting who is foolish enough to think 2010 is already coming down to the wire.  While I have no confidence that a major Democrat will run for governor, I would not bet against it either.  But strangely, somehow, no matter who runs and who gets elected, the world keeps turning.  That will do for now.

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by: Dale Napier @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 22:44:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We're just doing what you're supposed (3.50 / 2)

Ed we're just doing what the section is labeled for - Comments. Sheesh, you don't think these people will be on the streets when we get a good candidate? That's the point of these commentaries. The Rs have started lining up and we're just looking around for who we'd line up. The pickins' are pretty slim in my mind against a KBH or the Hairdo.

You are right that White or Sharp may move over to the gubernatorial race but so far they've lined up for the Senate. We're not even sure KBH will actually run. Franken's win might scare her into staying put.

BTW are you implying that we didn't have a candidate the past several races? In other words, what's different about this year than years past? KBH sells well to moderates. I challenge you to quit quoting the party line and let's talk some critical stuff here. I think we're a little more grown-up here and take the tough talk.

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by: RBearSAT @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:34:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

KBH sells really well to moderates... (0.00 / 0)

...when every Democrat acts like she is unbeatable.

Just saying.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Mon Dec 22, 2008 at 23:38:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Districts Matter (0.00 / 0)

I realize that this is early, but if there is one thing that I have learned about politics over the last decade, it's that districts matter.  The 2010 election will determine who draws the new maps, and two of our top candidates seem to have to committed to running for a position that has nothing to do with drawing those maps.  So I'm not flipping out, but I would have preferred either Sharp or White to have run for governor or lieutenant governor.  

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by: blank @ Tue Dec 23, 2008 at 02:01:04 AM UTC

Maybe a few more are wondering (0.00 / 0)

Charles Kuffner posted a pretty good analysis (granted, his last on this for a while) about the race. He quoted an article in the Chronicle by R.G Ratcliffe that provided more meat to the issue. In the article VPD even has doubts if KBH comes out on top.

"If people knew it was going to be a Rick Perry, you'd see folks willing to put their name forward," Van de Putte said. "People understand in a general election that Kay Bailey Hutchison is such an intense brand, it's hard to get market share on that one."

Look I love Leticia as my state senator. She's been fantastic in the Texas state senate and always fights for what's right. You couldn't ask for a better state senator. But outside of San Antonio, South Texas, the Coastal Bend,  and the D hotspots she's not the name everyone is looking for.

Now I've also seen what Kuffner states in that Sessions is asking KBH to sit a spell and wait this one out. If that happens then we could see the big boys jump to the other race. I'm not a KBH fan but honestly we just can't wish her star power away by just saying she's vulnerable. It doesn't work that way.

Those kind of comments remind me about the joke regarding the IBM salesman on his honeymoon. All he could do was just pat the bed and say how good it was going to be.

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by: RBearSAT @ Tue Dec 23, 2008 at 02:46:21 AM UTC