| The campaigns between Democrats and Republicans are over (at least for another year). The campaign focus to run toward the center or demonize the other party ended Tuesday but there are still campaigns on the horizon.
Across the state campaigns for city council and mayor are gearing up, and once the holiday cheer fades the spotlight will shine a little brighter on these men and women.
Here is a little holiday guide to what we already know about some key races.
Back in July, David discussed the future San Antonio Mayor's race. Super popular Mayor, Phil Hardberger is term limited, which usually creates the political climate apt for a lot of candidates to get in one race (just think U.S. Senate race if Kay Bailey steps down).
David wrote almost 5 months ago that Julián Castro, Diane Cibrian and Fernando Reyes were all eyeing the race.
Speculation was almost proven right. To date, PR consultant Trish DeBerry, Former Councilman Julian Castro, and Councilwoman Diane Cibrian have all entered the race.
Julian Castro is the favorite in this race.
Castro first ran in 2005 and lost by about 3,000 votes after being down over 10,000 in Early Vote. Castro closed the margin, ran a tough campaign, and made a strong case for his vision for the city and his qualification.
Beyond campaign experience, Castro is the only candidate with a website and the site includes video endorsements from San Antonio State Senator Leticia Van de Putte and Henry Cisneros. Two high profile endorsements in a low turnout election.
For more information about San Antonio politics and San Antonio races, visit Dig Deeper Texas and check out their fine work or the aptly titled San Antonio Mayor Blog.
While the race for Mayor of San Antonio seems cut and dry, the races in Austin seem to be crowded and confusing.
By statute, city council places 2, 5, 6, and the Mayor's office are all up and voters will have to cast a vote in all of them. In addition to these , place 1 may be vacated by Lee Leffingwell if he chooses to run for Mayor. This will create an interesting dynamic since the only two people not running and not on the ballot are newly elected council members Laura Morrison and Randi Shade.
While place 2 and 6 are on the ballot, no serious candidates have emerged to take on either Mike Martinez or Sheryl Cole.
In the place 5 race, Brewster McCracken's current seat, only one candidate has emerged, former city council member and current UT Professor, Bill Spelman.
Spelman already appears to have a large and diverse coalition of supporters surrounding him. It is hard to imagine any candidates trying to challenge Spelman and its even harder to imagine Spelman losing.
While places 2, 5, and 6 already seem to have front-runners, place 1 and the race for Mayor are totally up in the air.
The irony to this is, place 1 isn't on the ballot unless Lee Leffingwell decides to vacate it and run for Mayor and unless Lee runs for Mayor, a lot of candidates won't have a place to run.
Let's start with the assumption Lee Leffingwell runs for Mayor (as is suspected), then the place 1 race looks like it will be Chris Riley, Perla Cavazos, Rick Cofer, and Kathy Tovo. Not quite as easy to manage as the place 5 race, but still interesting.
As of today, only Chris Riley and Rick Cofer have websites.
This race nearly guarantees a runoff. With four candidates who draw from 4 distinct, unique bases it hard to see how anyone will win this in the first round. It also means endorsements and supporters will have a massive impact. Not to mention the always-important fundraising numbers. Unlike any other race, this one is wide open.
Of course, the campaign for place 1 hinges entirely on who runs for Mayor.
Already in the race is Brewster McCracken. Carole Strayhorn is "exploring" as is Mike Levy. That leaves Lee Leffingwell who is being "drafted" by Austinites but is likely in.
Even in the exploring phase, Strayhorn's past is hurting her. It's hard to see how Strayhorn wins even with a small, more conservative electorate. As KT once pointed out, looking at her Governors bid, her base is 21% of the general election vote. This electorate will be closer to 50,000 people and even with a smaller voting population its hard to see how Strayhorn gets to 50% plus 1.
Especially with Mayor Pro Tem McCracken running and former Texas Monthly editor Mike Levy.
While the field is predictably crowded, it is also diverse. No two candidates appear to have similar backgrounds or messages. Leffingwell and McCracken get close, but their priorities in the council have differed. Leffingwell has been an environmental leader and Brewster has focused on women's issues. It's an over simplification, but shows the contrast in policy priorities.
If Facebook groups and supporter lists are any indication on who the front runners are, this race is between Leffingwell and McCracken.
All in all, the city council races look to be very interesting this year. |
