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GOP Poll Signals Warning for Texas Republicans


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Wed Dec 03, 2008 at 00:47 AM CST


Jason Embry of the Statesman pointed this out to me and he's right that we'll probably see more dribs and drabs of this poll as it leaks its way out. Be sure to read the whole thing but here are some select pieces.

By Hill Research Consultants, a GOP polling firm based in The Woodlands. The statewide poll of 636 active Texas voters was conducted in mid-November.

Issues:

29% Economy/business
16% Employment/jobs
12% Education
10% Illegal immigration

And, surprisingly, way down on the list is the Trans Texas Corridor at 1 percent.

That means 45% of respondents put the economy and jobs as the top issues. I wonder where Voter ID laws ranked, lol.

Overall job approval of Republicans in state government:

45% Approve
50% Disapprove

Have Republicans performed well enough to deserve re-election?

32% GOP deserves re-election
54% Give Democrats a chance

I think that's it is real telling that now it is in the hands of Democrats to see if they can perform, though that is still largely tempered by the fact that Democrats don't control anything in Texas government. So if stuff "fails" again this session, it's still going to be viewed as being at then hands of the GOP.

The poll divides the Texas electorate into the following segments:

21% Enduring Republicans
10% Emerging Republicans
25% Critical Middle
17% Emerging Democrats
27% Enduring Democrats

Wow, 31% on the Republican side to 44% on the Democratic side. That is quite the shift. We don't know how that is really defined, but it matches the shift in self described Party ID that's happening in Texas as well.

Be sure to read the rest of the details here. There are some favorable/unfavorable numbers for Ann Richards, LBJ, and Chuck Norris of all people.  

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They forgot to mention the 39% (0.00 / 0)
Apparently they polled the 39% who voted for Rick Perry. I suspect the economy, illegal immigration, and the TTC are way up there on the list of concerns of most Republicans in that order and at way higher percentages than this poll indicates. As for Chuck Norris, was that meant to be a joke or just an indication that Republicans like their men, and their politicans, rough and tough? If the latter, then the percentages are all wrong obviously since most of the Texas Republicans fit the Chuck Norris image. Even Kay Bailey Hutchison has begun to act a little more butch when waving her pom-poms around while doing her cheers for corruption.

There's no such thing as a kinder, gentler Republican these days. As indicated by the "firewall" of Saxby Chambliss.  A "firewall" many believe was put up by Sarah Palin campaigning for him in Georgia.

Polls are polls.  And increasingly questionable in Texas.  


Snooks, why *so* skeptical? (0.00 / 0)
Really. Why? What other polls are you unhappy with? All polls?

I think this is really interesting. I too share some of Snooks' skepticism re. the actual % of Ds in Texas. However the crucial number is the "critical middle." 25%.

Makes you think.

I have this pet theory that I've been dragging out for over two years now about the 2006 governor race showing us the actual party breakdown of the state. 40% R (39% for the precise among you), 30% D, 30% I. Will read the poll. Does seem unlikely that there's been a 10 point swing in two years.


The "Independents" (0.00 / 0)
I think those are the ones the polls really can't gauge because people who are "Independent" still identify with one of the two parties and so will by habit say Republican or Democrat. There really isn't an Independent Party.

The state may be at least 50% Republican judging from various races in the recent election. And yet only 39% percent voted for Rick Perry in 2006.  So you can assume there were at least 11% who were "Republican" by party association but "Independent" when given an option.  Of course we don't know whether they voted for Strayhorn, Friedman, or Bell. We just know they didn't vote for Perry.

Polls are random samplings. There are so many variables involved that the margins of error can be much larger than what the pollster believes.  It's hit and miss in my opinion. Of late more hit than miss. That doesn't make them reliable in my opinion.  



[ Parent ]
What? (0.00 / 0)
"There are so many variables involved that the margins of error can be much larger than what the pollster believes."

No.

Margins of error are mathematical realities of the given analysis. You may think the analysis is wrong -- there are always arguments to be made that the selection of the population or the sampling of the population could be wrong -- but that's one thing. But the margins of error are realities of the analysis. The input may be flawed, but the MoE -- by definition -- is an accurate statistical representation of the analysis (whether it is flawed or not).

/Also, if it's more hit than miss it would be more reliable, not less.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.


[ Parent ]
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