| It's official. I am tired of reading that Republicans have an advantage in low turnout or special elections.
The facts simply do not support the bold claim.
Since 2005, Democrats have won or over performed in nearly every special election in Texas.
The obvious and best example of this is House District 97. In the December, "low turnout" special election, Dan Barrett won. In the November general election, Dan Barrett lost. Barrett saw a 10 point erosion in his numbers while Shelton saw a nearly 8 point gain.
House District 97 Special Election
Dan Barrett (D) - 52.18%
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 47.81%
House District 97 General Election
Mark M. Shelton (R) - 55.33%
Dan Barrett (D) - 42.75%
Nothing changed. Barrett was out spent in both elections. Shelton was cozy to Craddick in both elections. The only major difference is the turnout numbers. Barrett won the low turnout election, Shelton won the high turnout election.
It may seem like an overstatement, but looking back to 2005 the Republican special election not only appears to be a fallacy, it appears to be nonexistent.
2006 was a very good year for Democrats who ran in supposedly Republican favored special elections.
U. S. Representative District 23
Henry Bonilla (R) - 45.71%
Ciro D. Rodriguez (D) - 54.28%
State Representative District 48
Ben Bentzin (R) - 42.38%
Donna Howard (D) - 57.61%
In 2006, Democrats won every special election they ran in with the exception of House District 29. House District 29 hasn't elected a Democrat since 2000 and no Democrat has received more than Tom Uher did in 2002 when he got 42.59% of the vote after 9/11. Before that, Uher represented a totally different district than what is now HD-29. Before the census and redistricting, Uher's district was a democratically favorable district, and since, it has been carved in a way to help elect over 100 Republicans in Texas (as was Tom DeLay's goal at the time).
You have to go back to February 2005 to see a special election contest where a Republican had a definitive win.
State Representative District 121
Paul Silbert (I) - 3.09%
Rose Spector (D) - 33.58%
Glen S. Starnes (R) - 1.38%
Joe Straus (R) - 61.93%
As Kuff wrote in 2005, House District 121 was and continues to be a Republican district. House District 121 in northeast San Antonio and stretched from Olmos Park northeast to Windcrest and north past Loop 1604.
Although Spector lost, she still did better than the Democratic challenger did against Elizabeth Ames Jones in 2000.
State Representative District 121
Elizabeth Ames Jones (R) - 68.24%
Michael G. Zapper (D) - 28.68%
J. (Jay) Moore (L) - 3.07%
While it didn't win us the seat, Democrats saw a nearly 5 point increase during the 2005 special election. In a competitive race, a 5 point swing would be the difference between victory and defeat.
In fact this phenomenon extends beyond urban districts. On February 17, 2004, Democrats were only 3.5 points away from winning the rural Senate District 1 in a special election.
State Senator, District 1 (Unexpired)
Kevin Eltife (R) - 51.86%
Paul Sadler (D) - 48.13%
The truth is, Democrats do well in special elections. The reasons differ. The politics and finances differ from year to year and campaign to campaign, but the empirical data remains consistent.
As we move rapidly towards December 16, it is more important than ever for us to elect Congressman Chris Bell. The data shows it will only get harder.
(for more information about the Senate District 17 special election click here.) |
