| The Hutchison Effect
First, Lets not look beyond the very next election. Should Kay truly make a run for governor and I believe that she will, Texas will be subject to what I call the Hutchison Effect. Kay’s strong coattails could maintain, if not increase Republican majorities down ballot and slow any discussion around “battleground” chatter for at least two or more election cycles. There’s sound reasoning behind the rumor that Houston Mayor Bill White will run for anything opposite of what Kay Bailey Hutchison runs for. Smart man.
Regardless of what we Democrats think of Hutchison she is immensely popular across this state. She has the potential to dig into just about every major electorate bracket that is measured, and even the ones’ we felt we made gains in this cycle. Female candidates have been doing very well on the ballot the past few election cycles in Texas, whether with an R or a D at the end of their name. Kay at the top of the ticket would create really strong coattails for Republican candidates, especially any female candidates, in 2010.
Moreover, because of the Hutchison Effect that also means that Democrats will need to seriously consider a defensive posture; protecting what gains we made in 2008, and maintaining what we already have. I don't see much room for going on offense unless it is a district like HD-105 in Irving, or unless we field strong female candidates of our own in potential pick-up areas. If that is to be the case, then Annie's List get ready.
The Obama Effect
Third, yes, 2008 was an incredible election with record turnout, and sure there were huge increases in minority and youth voting throughout the state. I'm calling this the Obama Effect. But unlike the Hutchison Effect, there is a positive side and negative side to the Obama one.
The positive side of the Obama Effect was exactly what I just said--the huge gains in minority and youth voting throughout the state. That tremendous uptick for Democratic support was easily seen in the results from Tarrant County on November 4th. Both Senate-elect Wendy Davis, and House-elect Chris Turner benefited from the huge swell of new voters and overall increase in Democratic turnout. Each of their districts represented territories that were trending Democrat but 2008 accelerated that trend dramatically.
The negative side of the Obama Effect is quite the opposite of a Democratic voter surge; in fact, it is a Republican one. Again, take Tarrant County for example. House District 97 with Dan Barrett saw an increase in straight Republican voting. You also saw this in precincts in Northeast Tarrant County where organizations like the Mid-Cities Democrats were trudging through precincts supporting down ballot candidates, including Wendy Davis. The huge surge of straight Republican voting in these territories doomed any chances for Dan Barrett of winning in 97, and any chances for Democratic candidates in territories like Northeast Tarrant County. Outside of coming close to Brimer in some precincts encompassing Senate District 10 in the Northeast, Davis lost them all. The negative side of the Obama Effect was fueled by race, general fear of potential Democratic policies, a dash of intolerance, and topped with a bit of "I like Sarah Palin" too. No amount of work, and there was a lot of it, could have countered that Effect.
My Point?
Although Obama won't be on the ballot in 2010, we still could have an Obama Effect depending on how his first few years in office pan out. If Obama does well and quells any fear amongst the negative electorate about a black man serving as president, and his policies take root and have a positive impact, we could see a much smaller version of the positive side of the Obama Effect occur. If that is the case, it could be what neutralizes the Hutchison Effect and allows Democrats to continue and be competitive in 2010. That 2012 battleground projection just might be a bit more attainable, but between you and I, not likely. Frankly, I agree with MSNBC’s Chuck Todd and his analysis on the potential for Texas as a battleground state.
However, if Obama slips up out of the gate, like Bill Clinton in 1993, and his policies are not well received by the electorate as a whole, then we could see the negative side of the Obama Effect occur and a repeat of not only the 1994 Republican Revolution nationally, but couple that with the Hutchison Effect in Texas in 2010, and Democrats could be set back several election cycles. Hence the need to consider a strong defensive posture this coming cycle.
The Moral of this Story, you ask?
We in Texas can't necessarily control what happens in Washington D.C., but we can control what happens in our cities, counties, and state. In an off election year like 2009, Democrats must run and/or support progressive-minded candidates for City Council and any Board races within our sphere of territorial influence. We change the political foundations and overall political ideology of where politics affects us the most, and especially where the negative impact of the Obama Effect was most evident. We lay a progressive-minded foundation that will take root and grow in our communities and neutralize our opponent's advantage, or expand ours. Root out conservative ideology at the lowest level of government. We build a farm system of potential future candidates in case the negative side of the Obama Effect hits and we have to plan for future Party growth after the Hutchison Effect dissipates in 2010. Or, we build a farm system of potential future candidates in case the positive side of the Obama Effect hits and we have to plan for future Party growth after the Hutchison Effect has been neutralized in 2010. We'll be ready to go on offense once we weather 2010. Like we are told to do in preparation for Severe Weather season in Texas, I'm asking Democrats to prepare themselves for the election season ahead. If we want to reach the point that the Lone Star State is considered a battleground again then we can't look past the next election, and we must plan and get to work right now this cycle if we wish to ever attain battleground status in Texas. |
