| Ed. Note: The following 2,200+ word post took tremendous research & time to write. Please take the time to read it carefully. -- KT & Matt Using fact-based reporting and research, we can document that there are at least 74 opponents to Speaker Craddick, that his absolute ceiling of support is 63, and that there are at least 13 "toss-up" Members who have refused to commit to anyone so far.
Tom Craddick is John McCain at this point. Barring a miracle, the math is absolutely there for change. Right now, we're just waiting to see who will bring change. I've researched news stories on all 150 Members of the Texas House, looked at last year's Speaker's vote, re-watched the Haggerty walk-off, and studied the primary and general election results from 2008. It's amazing how original research can crystallize the picture: - There are 74 "public" opponents of Craddick.
- There are 63 "public" supporters of Craddick -- this is his ceiling.
- There are 13 "public" toss-up Members who are undecided.
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Executive Summary We have reached the tipping point for the end of Tom Craddick's reign as Speaker. All we're waiting for is the last brave group of Members to declare they won't support him, and we can officially move on to determining who should be next in line.
Based entirely on public statements and the latest public records, Tom Craddick would have to secure every single past supporter that hasn't abandoned him yet (his 63-person ceiling) and convert every single undeclared Member to his side in order for him to retain his Speakership. Given that reality, Rep. Jim Dunnam's statement last week seems pretty accurate: "Stick a fork in Tom Craddick. It's over." Rep. Jim Dunnam, 11/5/08. (Source)
Here's why Tom Craddick's reign as Speaker is over: - The numbers just aren't there. As I'll detail below -- complete with sources and everything -- there are 74 public opponents to Tom Craddick. Additionally, there are at least 13 publicly "toss-up" Members that have not declared whether they support Craddick or not, though most have indicated they do not want a return of Tom Craddick's style of leadership.
That means there is an easy path to 80 (if you evenly split the "toss-up" Members) for no support of Craddick.
- The likelihood that Speaker Craddick would retain all 63 "public" supporters is ridiculous. Because there is no recent "public" information on who those 63 Members may or may not support, I give them all to Speaker Craddick. But doing so is extremely generous -- it is much, much more likely that he has only 1/2 or, at best, 2/3 of that support.
Many of our readers -- both Democrat and Republican elected officials, as well as lobbyists and consultants -- can look through that list of 63 and see several names you don't believe will support Craddick again, or are on the fence and are just waiting on the next 1-2 Members to publicly declare they won't support Craddick.
- The momentum just isn't there. Speaker Craddick created a false sense of "momentum" with the official tally of the HD 105 race with Rep. Linda Harper Brown. Keeping that race in his column changed nothing; all it did was make it much more likely that a Democrat would not be elected Speaker. But Craddick himself is just as likely to not be re-elected today as he was one week ago -- when we learned that, under his reign as Speaker, Republicans lost another net of 3 seats.
It is time for Democrats and Republicans to elect a new Speaker. It must be one who embraces the idea that the status quo must change, that all Members are equal, that what happened in the past is the past, and that Members should be allowed to vote for the important issues that matter to their districts. ------------------------------------
Why Public Sources Matter A brief note as to why I use public sources: because I believe in responsible journalism. I know that may shatter some of your perceptions of bloggers, but I absolutely believe in responsible journalism. I am angered when I read news analysis that fails to do any research -- primarily because it leads to false stories like this one:
Legislative win gives House edge to GOP, Craddick
With a crowded field of candidates and no clear alternative to Republican House Speaker Tom Craddick, the narrow 76-74 majority appears to give momentum back to Craddick in the volatile speaker's race — and all but guarantees the next speaker will not be a Democrat. -- Associated Press ( Source)
There's no momentum for Craddick. It's just that everyone in the press is listening to arguments/rumors from the people who are spinning them, and no one is willing to do the required leg work and research. Well, I did it. Here's how I came to my totals: - Started with the 80-68 split on the Geren amendment
- Adjusted totals based on public statements in May 2007
- Adjusted totals based on the "Haggerty walk-off roll call" vote
- Adjusted totals based on the primary election results and candidates' stated support
- Adjusted totals based on the general election results and candidates' stated support
- Finally, I researched quotes in recent news stories, and tallied
I've given you the "top-line" numbers. If you want to see the list of names, click "There's More" to read below the fold: |
The 74 Craddick Opponents This is pretty easy. From the latest Monday Morning Memo of the Texas House Democratic Caucus: 64 - that's the D number for anyone wanting to know. It's not a huge secret; there are 64 in hand. All rumors to the contrary and simply unfounded. Our unity is something to take pride in, making us the largest bloc in the House. Last week, we know that 68 House Democrats met in their caucus meeting. 64 of them -- as that Memo says -- signed pledge cards to not support Tom Craddick. I'd like to point out that those 64 pledge opponents are more than the ceiling of 63 Craddick supporters I outline below. That memo from the Democratic House Caucus is sufficient documentation to say there are 64 House Democrats opposed to Craddick as Speaker. I can "document" all but 2 of those 64: | 48 Democrats Remain from Last Session That Voted Against Craddick | | Allen, Alma A | Farias, Joe | Hopson, Chuck
| Pickett, Joe
| | Alonzo, Roberto | Farrar, Jessica Cristina | Howard, Donna
| Pierson, Paula
| | Anchia, Rafael | Frost, Stephen | Leibowitz, David
| Quintanilla, Chente
| | Bolton, Valinda | Gallego, Pete | Mallory Caraway, Barbara
| Raymond, Richard
| | Burnam, Lon | Gonzales, Veronica | Martinez Fischer, Trey
| Ritter, Allan
| | Castro, Joaquin | Gonzalez Toureilles, Yvonne | Martinez, Armando
| Rodriguez, Eddie
| Cohen, Ellen | Heflin, Joe | McReynolds, Jim
| Strama, Mark
| | Coleman, Garnet F. | Hernandez, Ana E. | Menendez, Jose
| Thompson, Senfronia
| | Davis, Yvonne | Herrero, Abel | Naishtat, Elliott
| Vaught, Allen
| | Dunnam, Jim | Hochberg, Scott | Oliveira, Rene
| Veasey, Marc
| | Eiland, Craig | Hodge, Terri | Olivo, Dora
| Villarreal, Mike
| | Farabee, David | Homer, Mark | Ortiz, Solomon Jr.
| Vo, Hubert
|
We then have those that "flipped" by the end of session: - Rep. Norma Chavez (#49) - Source
- Rep. Joe Deshotel (#50) - Source
- Rep. Eddie Lucio III (#51) - Source
- Rep. Patrick Rose (#52) - Source
We then had Republican Rep. Kirk England switch parties (#53) because of Craddick's leadership: "After one session in the House, I found that the Republican leadership in Austin had no tolerance for the values and priorities of the folks I represent," England said in a statement released Wednesday. "That is why [Thursday] at 10 a.m., I will announce my intention to seek re-election to the Texas House as a Democrat."
There was then those Democrats who won in the primary -- either seats held by Craddick opponents, or defeating Craddick opponents: - Rep.-elect Carol Alvarado (#54) - replaced Rep. Rick Noriega (D)
- Rep.-elect Roland Gutierrez (#55) - replaced Craddick supporter Rep. Robert Puente (D), who retired
- Rep.-elect Armando Walle (#56) - replaced Craddick supporter Rep. Kevin Bailey (D)
We then have 6 new Democrats elected in the general election: - Rep.-elect Carol Kent (#57) replaced Craddick supporter Rep. Tony Goolsby (R)
- Rep.-elect Kristi Thibaut (#58) replaced Craddick supporter Rep. Jim Murphy (R)
- Rep.-elect Chris Turner (#59) replaced Craddick supporter Rep. Bill Zedler (R)
- Rep.-elect Diana Maldonado (#60) replaced Craddick opponent Rep. Mike Krusee (R)
- Rep.-elect Robert Miklos (#61) replaced Craddick opponent Rep. Thomas Latham (R)
- Rep.-elect Joe Moody (#62) replaced Craddick opponent Rep. Pat Haggerty (R)
I can't source the final two Democrats, but it is public knowledge that there are 2 more Democrats that have signed a pledge card to not elect Craddick again. My best guess is that Rep.-elect Marissa Marquez (#63), who has never spoken well of Craddick, and Rep. Tracy King (#64), who attended a TexBlog PAC event, are the other two. Quick Update: In today's Statesman, King says he is uncommitted. That still doesn't change the 64 pledged for Democrats...but documentation is documentation.
The other big block is the 10 "Anyone but Craddick" (ABC) Republicans: That's 74 public opponents of Tom Craddick; and none of those are flipping. ------------------------------------
The 13 "Toss-Ups" Now we must look at the 13 Members -- Democrats and Republicans -- that have not publicly indicated their support or oppopsition to Speaker Craddick. I will also comment briefly on each one: | | Representative | Source
| Comment | #1
| Rep. Dawnna Dukes (D)
| Statesman Editorial | Rep. Dukes doesn't want to lose her Chair position; every challenger to Craddick is promising to restore seniority to the Appropriations Committee, so she and Rep. Dutton would actually keep their seats
| | #2 | Rep. Harold Dutton (D)
| Statesman | Not committed, though said he "might support Craddick" since it may be the easiest way for Democrats to regain control of the House | | #3 | Rep.-elect Allen Fletcher (R)
| Burka Post
| Fletcher defeated Craddick supporter Van Arsdale in the primary, and has publicly aligned himself with anti-Craddick positions; supported by Dan Patrick, would probably support a strong conservative
| #4
| Rep. Helen Giddings (D)
| DMN Blog Post
| DMN post states that she's meeting with Democrat leaders about who to support for Speaker; definitely still up in the air
| #5
| Rep. Ryan Guillen (D)
| DMN story
| Stated he is undecided; had major headaches having to vote with Craddick on Appropriations last session (Source)
| #6
| Rep. Mike Hamilton (R)
| Houston Chronicle
| Stated he is "undecided" on 11/11/08
| #7
| Rep. Patricia Harless (R)
| H. Chron;
R Blog
| "Refuses to discuss the Speaker's race with anyone" though she had rescinded her pledge to Craddick two years ago when she thought he wouldn't win
| #8
| Rep. Ruth McClendon (D)
| S.A. Express-News
| Indicated she would support a Democrat if there is a Democrat majority; at least has considered other potential candidates
| #9
| Rep.-elect Doug Miller (R)
| New Braunfels
| Refused to state publicly who he supported when he defeated staunch Craddick & Leininger Republican Nathan Macias in the primary
| #10
| Rep. Aaron Pena (D)
| Pena's Blog
| Coy, as always, on his website; though he thought a new Speaker would be clear "within moments" of the polls closing, and he correctly predicted a +3 gain for Democrats
| #11
| Rep. Burt Solomons (R)
| DMN | As House Rules Chairman, publicly disagreed with Speaker Craddick on his ruling on the House rules in May; cannot be counted by either side yet
| | #12 | Rep. Sylvester Turner (D)
| Ethics Commission
| A delcared candidate for Speaker, wisely said, "its a sad dog that won't wag its own tail;" most powerful of the swing Democrats
| #13
| Rep. Tara Rios Ybarra (D)
| No Declaration | Strongly supported by Texans for Lawsuit Reform
|
Quick Update: In today's Statesman, King says he is uncommitted. That still doesn't change the 64 pledged for Democrats...but documentation is documentation. And that means that one of the Democrats above has signed the pledge of 64 to not support Craddick...so there are still 13 "toss-ups."
Remember -- every single one of these 13 "swing votes" would have to side with Speaker Craddick in order for him to be re-elected Speaker. If you think that is as unlikely as I do, then you understand how unlikely it is that Speaker Craddick will be re-elected. ------------------------------------
The 63 Craddick Supporters Despite my best efforts, I do not have many connections inside the Republican caucus. There are many rumors, though, that Speaker Craddick has no more than 30-40 of these past supporters pledged to him. I have no idea how many of these supporters are still supporters; feel free to leave tips in the comments, or e-mail me directly if you have any information. But at the utmost, best-case scenario for Speaker Craddick, this is his ceiling of support, and in any case, it's the most any responsible journalist could credit to Craddick: Anderson, Doc
| Crownover, Myra
| Hunter, Todd | Patrick, Diane
| Aycock, Jimmie Don
| Darby, Drew
| Isett, Carl
| Paxton, Ken
| Berman, Leo
| Davis, John
| Jackson, Jim
| Phillips, Larry
| Bohac, Dwayne
| Driver, Joe
| King, Phil
| Riddle, Debbie
| Bonnen, Dennis
| Edwards, Al (D)
| King, Susan
| Sheffield, Ralph
| Branch, Dan
| Eissler, Rob
| Kleinschmidt, Tim
| Shelton, Mark
| Brown, Betty
| Flores, Kino (D)
| Kolkhorst, Lois
| Smith, Todd
| Brown, Fred
| Flynn, Dan
| Laubenberg, Jodie
| Smith, Wayne
| Button, Angie Chen
| Gattis, Dan
| Legler, Ken
| Smithee, John
| Callegari, Bill
| Hancock, Kelly
| Lewis, Tryon
| Swinford, David
| Chisum, Warren
| Hardcastle, Rick
| Madden, Jerry | Taylor, Larry
| Christian, Wayne
| Harper-Brown, Linda
| Miller, Sid
| Truitt, Vicki
| | Corte Jr., Frank | Hartnett, Will
| Morrison, Geanie
| Weber, Randy
| Crabb, Joe
| Hilderbran, Harvey
| Orr, Rob
| Woolley, Beverly
| Craddick, Tom
| Howard, Charlie
| Otto, John | Zerwas, John
| Creighton, Brandon
| Hughes, Bryan
| Parker, Tan
| |
A few notes on all of these Members: - The ones in bold are the 13 that were announced in the latest Craddick supporter letter, plus Craddick.
- Two Democrats are on this list: Rep. Kino Flores (source) & Rep. Al Edwards (source). Though Rep. Flores' recent trouble could force him to vacate his seat -- only time will tell.
- Of all of these returning Members, only two have "switched" from opposing Craddick to now supporting Craddick: Rep. Bryan Hughes (source) and Rep. Todd Smith (source). Why is that important? Because in the 18 months since May 2007, Craddick has only brought two Republicans over to his side; how does anyone suspect he'll bring over every other "toss-up" and not lose any more supporters?
Those are the facts. Those are the numbers. I will update them going forward as we learn more information. Please discuss in the comments. |
