| In Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign has been spending a substantial amount of time and money, Obama has maintained a lead as large as 14 points and Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading the state 52.5%-41.5%. Generally speaking if a candidate is poll above fifty percent it is difficult for the opponent to have a realistic chance of winning; not only is McCain going to have to shave off 2.5% of Obama's lead but all of the 6% of undecided will have to break for McCain. This means that in order for McCain to win you are talking about a 9 point swing in one week.
However, in Ohio where the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama leading 49.1%-43.3% McCain still has a significant chance of winning the state. With 8% of the electorate still undecided if the votes break at upwards of 70% in Ohio towards McCain, as MSNBC Political Director Chuck Todd suggest, then Ohio can be in reach for McCain. However, McCain's polling numbers have been trending down in Ohio over the last week while Obama's polling numbers have remained strong.
In Florida the Real Clear Politics poll average has Obama only leading 48.6%-45.1%, and if 70% of the undecided voters break for McCain he could win Florida. However, in the last week McCain's numbers have been trending down in Florida while Obama's have been trending up. What is the most significant thing about Ohio and Florida is that McCain must win both to have a realistic chance of reaching 270 electoral votes.
The problem with McInturff analysis and even Todd's take is that this election is not a prototypically election by any stretch of the imagination, and in fact November 4th could change much of political theory. Also, one must take into account that the polls could be actually showing Obama's numbers lower than they actual are. Pollsters tend to use a model their polls in a way that could be outdated. Last month there were reports about a Pew Research Center study which concluded that "growing population of cell-only users from public opinion polls may slightly skew the results." Also, pollsters tend not to consider people who have not voted in the last two election cycles as likely voters, and in this election there may well be a record amount of new voters.
Reid Wilson of Real Clear Politics called the memo "infotainment;" Chuck Todd characterization of the memo was to "improve the morale of the party." Perhaps if the GOP and Republican voters really want a moral boost they should check out Bill O'Reilly's electoral map at Fox News. That map has to be one of the most ridiculous pieces of electoral analysis; Obama is actually behind McCain in the electoral count 189-183. States where Obama has large double digit leads like Oregon, Iowa, and Michigan, O'Reilly has listed as "toss-up." Whether or not Bill O'Reilly is actually in touch with reality is a toss-up.
Politics and Social Thought
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