| Senator Barack Obama is considering sending some money to various national Democratic organizations to help elect more Democrats in down ballot races. There has been tremendous urging for some time -- both here on BOR and, more directly, by the Texas Democratic Party -- for money to be directed to Texas. There are obvious advantages to the money going into our U.S. Senate and Congressional races -- Rick Noriega, Larry Joe Doherty (TX-10) and Michael Skelley (TX-7). The only thing preventing those three candidates from coming to the verge of victory is financial parity. Though Skelley has run an incredible race and is very well-funded, money that can be spent on GOTV efforts in his district help our down-ballot races tremendously. In fact, the money could help us in the Texas House the most. Here's why: If We Win More Races, We Can Elect a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House Simply put, Texas House Democrats picked all the low-hanging fruit some time ago. We're deep into the orchard now, and the more money, the larger GOTV plans we can run across the state. Going back to what I wrote in the first Burnt Orange Political Report, I have to stress how large of a challenge Texas Democrats are facing this cycle: The Texas House districts were drawn to elect nearly 100 Republicans. Five years ago, House Republicans led the chamber 88-62. Today, that lead has dwindled to 79-71 -- and without too much imagination, we may yet see Texas Democrats retake the Texas House. It will take serious work, though. Texas Democrats are running in deeply Republican districts across the state. That's a sign of how terribly the Republican brand of governing -- led by House Speaker Tom Craddick -- has failed Texas families over the past five years...House Democrats will gain net seats this cycle -- the question is just, how many.
If Democrats can net four seats this cycle -- which would be a tremendous accomplishment no one should sneer at -- then the Texas House will be a tie, 75-75, and in all likelihood we will have to settle for a "compromise" Republican or Democrat for Speaker of the House. While a compromise is an improvement over Speaker Tom Craddick, it could leave us with that compromise candidate in 2011, when the redistricting plans would need to be passed. No Republican, period, will ever let us pass a fair redistricting plan out of the Texas House; to believe otherwise is just plain stupid. And I don't feel confident in either of the two "compromise" TX House Democrat members that are often floated as potential candidates for Speaker in the event that it's very close. (And I pray that we net 5-6 seats so I don't have to write those posts, but if we have to, we will...) Besides, if we want to win a redistricting fight in 2010, then we need a smart negotiator who can argue from a position of strength. If we can protect all of our incumbents, win a few of the open seats and win a few challenge races, then we can elect -- to use the term of "Orange to Blue" framing -- a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House. Here's the three things a Better Democrat as Speaker of the House accomplishes (click "There's More"): |
