| STATE OF THE RACE: Lean Bell (Pick-up for D)
Candidate Page: Chris Bell
District Map: Click here to view a district map for SD-17
Click here to return to the Burnt Orange Political Report home page. Senate District 17 has proved to be one of the most politically compelling stories of the election cycle. It all began with a series of deals, broken promises, and half-truths that centered around the coordinated exist of incumbent State Senator Kyle Janek (R). The scramble among Republicans to replace Janek has caused considerable bad blood in the conservative community. Consider, for example, this excerpt from a post by Paul Burka (whose account of the bad blood in the race is an excellent primer in order to understand what exactly is going on among Republicans in the district): To say that the race to fill the Houston-area state Senate seat being vacated by Kyle Janek has heated up is an understatement. Melted down is more like it.[...] The real heat in this race is generated by what amounts to a Republican primary between Furse and Huffman for the right to take on Bell in a runoff. Janek has aroused some resentment by trying to handpick his successor. First he embraced former Houston oiler and TV commentator Spencer Tillman, only to find at the last minute that Tillman did not live in the district. Then he turned to Furse. This was too much for Jim Hotze, a former SREC member for District 17, who wrote a long article detailing Janek’s maneuvers for the Texas Conservative Review, an online newsletter edited by Gary Polland, whom Janek defeated to win his Senate seat.
Burka goes on to detail the exchange between the candidates. Go read the post, if you haven't already. Meanwhile, Bell is doing well in the polls. He has over 40% support while Republican challengers are scrambling around the low teens between 8 and 12 points. Should the race go into a runoff (which is likely), Bell's high name ID and the bad blood amongst Republicans could provide a path to victory for Democrats. Another Democrat, Stephanie Simmons, is running after successfully employing Republican Speaker Tom Craddick's parliamentarian Ron Wilson to ensure she stayed on the ballot. Questions still surround who is funding her race -- whether or not she is a stalking horse for Republicans to depress Bell's Democrat base turnout -- since D. Davenport Ron Wilson is her biggest public supporter. We will have more details on Republicans in the race in the coming days. Bell has high name ID, which is a major positive for him in the race. For now, we categorize the race as "Lean Bell" since we expect he'll easily have the most votes on November 4. In the coming weeks, we hope to have more quantitative information to show you why he could even win outright on Election Day. Here are some links to previous coverage of the race on Burnt Orange Report: |
