| The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is using a full court press on the Republican Party this cycle.
A recent Roll Call article focuses on two races we have had our eyes on for a long time- Larry Joe Doherty vs. Mike McCaul and Mike Skelly vs. John Culberson.
Roll Call over simplifies to the two races saying:
Culberson's 7th district encompasses much of Houston's western suburbs and is among the most conservative in a state that remains a Republican stronghold. But Culberson's opponent, businessman Michael Skelly, has attempted to position himself as a conservative Democrat and has vowed to spend $1 million of his own money on the race. As of June 30, he had nearly doubled the incumbent in cash on hand.
McCaul's 10th district, stretching from greater Houston's solidly conservative Harris County in the east to the Austin region's Democratic-leaning Travis County in the west, has the potential to be politically problematic for Republicans.
The Republican Party and President Bush are incredibly unpopular (even in Texas), and both McCaul and Culberson like to highlight their close ties and friendships with this administration. The Republican's are losing control of the Texas House. They are losing more down ballot races than ever before. Their most vocal advocated tell voters their economic woes are all in their head.
Democrats on the other hand are better funded than they have been in nearly a decade. There is more passion and focus on the Democratic Party than there has been in years.
Maybe that is why "Republican operatives who follow Texas Congressional races concede that neither the 7th district nor the 10th will be the easy ride they've been for the Republicans since being redrawn in 2003 as part of the redistricting of Lone Star State House seats engineered by then-House Majority Leader Tom DeLay (R-Texas)."
While Julie Shutley, the spokes person for the National Republican Congressional Committee argues that McCain helps McCaul and Culberson, I am at a loss to figure out how. Barack Obama received more votes in the primary than John Kerry or Al Gore received in the 2004 or 2000 general election. We have more candidates running down ballot in both districts, which will encourage Independents and disenfranchised Republicans to vote for one or more Democrat and prevent them from voting straight ticket.
"Even in Texas, one of the reddest states in the country, people are fed up," DCCC spokeswoman Kyra Jennings said. "Combine this desire for change with the strong campaigns both Michael Skelly and Larry Joe Doherty are running, and it offers Democrats unique opportunities in Texas this year."
[...]
But Skelly's team believes a district whose economy relies heavily on the energy industry will respond favorably to a candidate with his background, and they predict that fiscal conservatives disappointed with Congress' record on spending and the deficit could help him win an unexpected victory. Skelly, on cable television with his second ad, is already courting voters; Culberson intends to wait until after Labor Day to launch his air war.
At the end of that sentence, read, "Skelly is already on TV because he has the money, support, and network to be able too... Culberson doesn't so he is forced to leave Skelly on TV by himself."
While CD-07 is decidedly moderate or leans conservative, the 10th district is one of the Tom DeLay fajita strip districts. It is a "classic gerrymander" district drawn up as a "majority Republican seat by cobbling together a collection of conservative-leaning rural counties and anchoring them on either side by portions of growing counties."
The district is less Republican today than it was yesterday and is probably the most rapidly trending seat in Texas.
Doherty's optimism is [anchored in] the increasing number of Democratic voters in Travis County, which is a liberal enclave in an otherwise sea of red, and the fact that McCaul's Democratic opponent in 2006 garnered 40 percent of the vote while being outspent by the incumbent $1.1 million to $65,000.
Doherty's strategy is to court moderate voters who are most interested in a change in Washington, D.C., while maximizing turnout in Travis County and working for a split in the rural counties. His campaign believes McCaul has not developed a close relationship with his constituents, and it plans to exploit that. McCaul's campaign vehemently denies that contention.
Again Roll Call gets it wrong. Travis County is not a island of blue in a sea of red anymore. Hays County, Williamson County and Bastrop County are all purple counties turning rapidly blue. People are fed up with Tom Craddick's pay to play model and Tom DeLay's unconstitutional Republican protection plan. Texans understand that the do nothing Culberson and Mike McCaul, the son-in-law to Clear Channel mogul Lowry Mays, don't represent them.
While Roll Call thinks it can't be done, it is clear that together, we can win two more congressional seats in Texas. |
