The newly founded Texas Poll Watch has some scary numbers coming out of incumbent Juan Garcia's district.
Texas Poll Watch conducted a poll of likely voters in Texas House District 32 from June 12, 2008 through June 15, 2008. The sample size is 560. The margin of error is 4.7%.
Todd Hunter - R 46.38%
Juan Garcia (I) - D 38.06%
Lenard Nelson - LIB 5.05%
Undecided 10.02%
Hunter's county-by-county lead ranges from nearly 13-points in both Nueces and San Patricio counties to 8-points in Aransas County. Garcia leads only in Calhoun County by 15-points.
Hunter leads Garcia by over 18-points with non-Hispanic voters, but Garcia leads Hunter by over 17-points with Hispanic voters.
The campaign is just getting going, so these are probably baseline numbers in a district that probably wrestles with 40-45% democratic performance (DPI). These aren't entirely shocking, but do indicate we need to take this race very seriously.
Good news is, Hunter has proven he is a bad campaigner time and time and time again. In addition, the March 4 presidential primary has identified thousands of new Democratic voters for the Garcia campaign to reach out to.
Bad news is this will be another expensive race and the Republicans have already proven they will lie in order to win. Which means Juan's positive message of reform and change will have to have the resources it needs to resonate among HD-32 voters. In addition, nobody is sure how many of those new voters will come out again.
This race also shows us we can't take anything for granted as Democrats.
As always, we will keep our eyes close to this race. |
