More good news in the Texas 10th Congressional District. In a recent poll conducted by Goodwin Simon Victoria Research, CD-10 is now very much in play.
Our recent poll results indicate that voters in Texas' 10th Congressional District may be willing to head in a different direction in 2008. Democratic candidate Larry Joe Doherty has a compelling personal narrative, incumbent Republican Mike McCaul is vulnerable because he has failed to make any meaningful connection with his constituents, and Democrats have a real chance to take this district in November.
This poll shows that the initial trial heat for Republican incumbent Mike McCaul gets only 43% of the vote and Democratic challenger gets 34% of the vote (down 9%). The main point here is that McCaul fails to get even close to the 50% plus 1 benchmark. In a generic Dem vs. Rep the Democrats gets 41% and Republicans get 45%. This indicates two points, one McCaul underperforms the straight Republican ID which means McCaul is actually underperforming the straight Republican ticket and two, LJD will see a huge bounce among both Democrats and Republicans once he begins outreach.
The poll also indicates that Doherty could move voters rapidly if they have the opportunity to hear his message.
After hearing one positive statement about Doherty and nothing critical of McCaul, voters are quickly able to reevaluate the congressional race, preferring Doherty over McCaul by 46% to 38%. After hearing considerable information about both candidates voters prefer Larry Joe Doherty by a 50% to 36% margin over McCaul. This again underscores how potentially fluid this electorate is.
The other scary point is how negative CD-10 feels about native son, President George W. Bush.
Bush's job rating is 70% negative here (in Texas) and 69% of C.D. 10 voters think the country is seriously off on the wrong track.
These numbers are good news for Democrats in Austin, Houston, and the counties in between. What we need to remember though is McCaul is independently wealthy and has strong family ties to the Clear Channel conglomeration. If LJD can't get both small and large donations, this will be a hard race to win.
To read the full polling memo, click here. The 400-person survey of likely voters in the 10th Congressional District was conducted May 27-31.
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