(Bumped. This came out last Friday afternoon so many of our weekday readers may have missed it. - promoted by Karl-Thomas Musselman)
Earlier I promoted a post regarding some poll results in the Austin City Council races conducted by the Capital Area Asian American Democrats (consider making a donation to them to cover the cost of the poll like I did). I received word that the results were slightly off as they were the raw numbers prior to being weighted to the electorate.
I have posted the official poll results below. The changes are marginal but do reflect a lower level of undecided voters across the board and Robin Cravey swaps positions with Jennifer Gale in Place 4.
Here are the actual poll results.
 IVR Polls surveyed 517 likely City Council voters on April 16. The survey's margin of error is +/- 4.3%.
Place 1
Lee Leffingwell 37.5%
Jason Meeker 13.7%
Allen Demling 3.9%
Undecided 44.9%
Place 3
Randi Shade 26.4%
Jennifer Kim 24.9%
Ken Weiss 11.3%
Undecided 37.4%
Place 4
Cid Galindo 11.9%
Laura Morrison 10.3%
Robin Cravey 10.2%
Jennifer Gale 8.0%
Ken Vasseau 4.8%
Sam Osemene 4.8%
Undecided 50.0%
We don't usually have an opportunity to see a poll like this so what does it tell us? First off, according to the pollster, these respondents are those who self-identified themselves as planning to vote in the city elections, so the undecideds, while high, are not inflated by unlikely voters.
That said- it's clear that these races are very fluid and voter contact via TV, Radio, and Mail will play a large role in the next 3 weeks.
In Place 1, Leffingwell clearly has an established lead with Meeker having to work to get beyond his base if he's to have any chance. This concurs with the wideheld assumption that Leffingwell is headed to victory without a runoff.
In Place 3, a statistical tie exists and while always predicted to be a hard fought race, I wouldn't have guessed that Shade would have had this level of support prior to entering the paid media phase of the campaign (which against an incumbent is a place she's probably happy to be in). Still, it's anyone game, but unless Kim or Shade is able to boost their margins, they'll be going head to head until the June runoff and a long campaign and smaller electorate could shift the electoral dynamics.
In Place 4, it is clear that the lack of an incumbent has the race wide open for whom is going to face off in a June runoff. Morrison, having won the lion's share of endorsements and some of the city's better consultants, does not have the poll numbers to back up what many had perceived to be frontrunner status. There is a clear separation of the field in this place with Gale providing the dividing line of those who are contenders and those who are not; Gale, of course, being in a class of her own.
Also, people may have underestimated the power that a Hispanic surname has, even in city elections (note- he has done some tv already). Combine that with a candidate likely to pick up the moderate to center-right city voters, and we may be dealing with a battle between Morrison and Cravey for which progressive will get to take on Cid Galindo in a runoff. Still, the race has the most undecided voters and is wide open so there is a reasonable chance that we get a Morrison-Cravey runoff that makes Austin lefties a little less anxious.
Share your own thoughts in the comments. The poll script is in the extended entry. |
