Texas Democrats, Post Primary Storm

Will these new voters come back in November? (0.00 / 0)

That's the big question.

---

by: TheUNTEdge @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 19:58:33 PM UTC

Terrific post (3.00 / 1)

I agree with Glenn. I neglected in my first post to talk about the Rep. England switch, the Rep. Barrett pick-up, or the fact that Rep. Rose, Rep. Lucio, and others no longer support Craddick.

The tides are in our favor -- it's a new day, and a bright one. And as we say goodbye to some (hopefully, not all) of our national readers, it's going to be our job to really dig deep and make the change in TX we saw yesterday lasting.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

---

by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 20:00:41 PM UTC

Low-information voters (0.00 / 0)

(1) "New"? Ha! You'll have to pry the rabbit ears out of my cold, old, yard-sign-pounding, phone-bank-dialing, push-card-pushing hands. Not like the kids leave me any time to watch that dreck anyway. Why would I pay for it? But don't be messing with my wi-fi. ;-)

(2) We all know that broadcast, narrowcast, and WTF-cast is necessary because its fast and cheap, but we know also that the real secret to connecting to any and every voter, is to do it up close, not from a distance. Years of academic studies and experience have shown us in labor that direct in-person contact with our members is not only the the most effective way to convince them of the wisdom of our endorsements, it also does a bang up job of building our unions over the long term. How do you reach new or old high- or low-information voters, bring them back this November (because they won't just "come" back), and for elections and struggles to come? Happy hour in the front yard. BBQ in the back yard. Beers at the neighborhood bar. Cleaning up the schoolyard. Setting the example of a caring involved neighbor, co-worker, or classmate who is informed and ready to share knowledge but who's equally ready to listen. Understanding that the Democrats next door who voted for the other one did so for their own good reasons. Remembering that the Republicans across the street are the first people you go to when you feel like you're gonna hit your kid.

Uh oh. I'm starting to sound like that guy I didn't vote for!

Ted Melina Raab - Austin, TX

---

by: tmelinaraab @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 20:33:25 PM UTC

Senate ranting (0.00 / 0)

Noreiga did better on election day than he did in early voting. Kelly did worse on election day than he did in early voting.

Noreiga's percentage was over 70% in 7 counties, over 60% in 26 counties, over 50% in 49 counties, between 40% and 50% in 43 counties, between 30% and 40% in 59 counties, between 20% and 30% in 53 counties, under 20% in 47 counties

Gene Kelly won a majority in 13 counties, between 40% and 50% in 53 counties, between 30% and 40% in 90 counties, between 20% and 30% in 68 counties, and under 20% in 27 counties

McMurrey's best showing was 33% in Briscoe county (the only county he won). He won over 30% in 2 counties, between 20% and 30% in 85 counties, between 10% and 20% in 133 counties and under 10% in 31 counties.

Rhett Smith's showing was 29 counties (over 20%), 169 counties (10% to 20%) and 53 counties (under 10%).

In the top 25 counties (1,620,200 votes): Noreiga 55, Kelly 25, McMurrey 11, Smith 9

In the other counties (543,651 votes): Noreiga 38, Kelly 32, McMurrey 17, Smith 13

Noreiga won 127 counties, Kelly won 122 counties, McMurrey won 1 county, one county was a draw, and three counties didn't hold a primary. (Noreiga won 18 of 25 big counties, Kelly won 115 of 229 small counties)

The big counties which went to Kelly: Galveston, Jefferson, Brazoria, Montgomery, McLennan, Bell, Orange.

So in general, it's a disturbingly huge protest/apathy vote. Noreiga losing multiple counties which border Harris county is also not a very good sign (granted, neither are his showings in Dallas and Harris counties).

But it would be interesting to compare showings for Gene Kelly between 2006 and 2008. Since Kelly's 2006 showing included a lot of very good showings in South Texas, which obviously flipped hard to Noreiga. But quite a few counties which went Radnofsky in March 2006 went for Kelly.

---

by: RBH @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 20:44:07 PM UTC

Not protest (0.00 / 0)

I don't imagine any protest votes going against Rick Noriega.  A good chunk of the McMurrey voters voted for him because they thought he was the better candidate, but I doubt anyone voted for Smith or Kelly for that reason.  

Noriega still has a lot to do for name recognition, but winning tonight without a runoff was a good sign.

"Let us tenderly and kindly cherish therefore, the means of knowledge. Let us dare to read, think, speak, and write."  -  John Adams

---

by: Michael Hurta @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 21:10:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good post (0.00 / 0)

I would add to your tactical point that they are more likely to watch Comedy Central than any political show.

Logic and an open mind are more useful than common sense.

---

by: othniel @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 21:15:11 PM UTC

Look at the down-ballot races (3.00 / 1)

The new voters didn't just vote for President and walk out. Most of them voted the entire ballot. In my precinct, about 85% voted for tax assessor, and the majority even voted for county chair!  They may be under-informed (as every vote for Gene Kelly proves), but they're not uninterested. They will be back in November.  

---

by: LSadun @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 21:52:57 PM UTC

More of them (0.00 / 0)

My youngest son in an unusual position.  He turns 18 in September and is foaming at the mouth to vote, more than a tad upset he will be stuck with choices made by his elders in the primaries.  How many are out there in that category?

Logic and an open mind are more useful than common sense.

---

by: othniel @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 23:37:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Turning 18 after primary (0.00 / 0)

(1) Make sure he registers in July (17 years and 10 months, Texas Election Code Sec. 13.001).

(2) Anyone who can't vote, for whatever reason, can still have an impact on the election, especially a primary, that is larger than that made by most folks who are eligible. Dragging to the polls one person who wouldn't otherwise have voted puts you in front of the 2/3 of registered Texans who didn't vote in either primary this year.

(3) Make damn sure he votes right . . . I mean LEFT! ;-)

Ted Melina Raab - Austin, TX

---

by: tmelinaraab @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 23:39:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, they are engaged (0.00 / 0)

Let me make it clear: to whatever degree some of lacked information, it is the fault of those who have had the information but not made it available. The great thing is, making it available seems to be a driving force behind much of what everyone here is doing.

---

by: Glenn Smith @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 00:34:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

1.1 Millions at the Caucuses (3.00 / 1)

I was an Obama precinct captain, and the thing that I loved was that the sign-in sheets to the caucuses made voters write down a phone number, valid residence, and email.  These are 1.1 million engaged Democrats.  We had lawyers, doctors, janitors, cooks, and union men at my caucus.  All Democrats.  These are the people we can use to build that farm team Burka always talks about.  And we know where they sleep!

In addition, on a personal level, I got to meet some great fellow Democrats and we're planning to stay in touch, organize some events, etc.

---

by: patknapp @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 22:06:35 PM UTC

Union Members, please. (0.00 / 0)

Surely not all the Union folk were male?

Logic and an open mind are more useful than common sense.

---

by: othniel @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 23:39:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haha - you're very correct (0.00 / 0)

Nice catch, there were union women as well. The UFCW and Machinists are champions.  Apologies for the mischaracterization.

---

by: patknapp @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 04:19:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

We've always been here (0.00 / 0)

I'm still upset that Glenn Smith was part of the waste in which Tony Sanchez likely spent upward of $100 million of his own money to run for governor and Texas Democrats have nothing to show for it. (http://www.texasobserver.org/article.php?aid=1161)

Texas had a great slate of candidates but Sanchez focused on swing voters without ever going after base voters. In less than a month with less money 1.1 million people were organized to engage in a caucus.

The Sanchez campaign had an intricate database with literally more information they could use and tried using a failed campaign technology, palm pilots, to capture bad information. A big reason for this failure was the oversight and the inexperience of running a modern day campaign. You might say Young attempted to use technology with his formulated database but the application is still the issue.

Historically it was possibly the most wasteful campaign ever. It has scared very qualified candidate and it's even more obvious in drying up fundraising that has dried up for state wide candidates. Smith, Young, Fero, Archer and Shipley all are to blame for this and it's reinforced by the statement "It is the proverbial thunder over the hill. Democrats are back. Everywhere."

These Democrats have been there in the inner city, the valley and west Texas but the campaign had it's on campaign plan that obviously benefited nobody.

There was almost an entire month to create and execute a plan after Wisconsin and nothing was done, again.

---

by: frhetoric @ Wed Mar 05, 2008 at 23:49:34 PM UTC

Wow (0.00 / 0)

What a random, unprovoked attack. And if you haven't learned that the #1 person to be upset with the Sanchez race was Sanchez himself, then you've spent 6 years wasting your time on a meaningless grudge.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

---

by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 00:57:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's not an attack first of all (0.00 / 0)

What part of my message was an attack. If laying out an argument that there's no infrastructure left from the Sanchez campaign and that time should not have been a factor for organizing Texas after Wisconsin, I think you're mistaken.

There are only a handful of consultants that continuously consult on state wide races for Texas Democrats with the same results. It's not that there are not more experienced candidates for the jobs it's a matter of connections and egos.

Unless your connected with trial lawyers, the fund, or the democratic legislative caucus you're not running or consulting on anything.

Do I have a plan that would get a Texas Democratic elected, absolutely. Will that plan ever be implemented, eventually.

You can't blame Sanchez. He hired these people to consult him on his campaign. I still have a CD made for Hispanics that includes 8 songs with a comment from Sanchez between songs about Tony in Spanish. Where did that idea originate can I get copy of the White, Asian and African American versions? If it's his idea you stop him from wasting money.

Fundraising is set back at least another two years maybe then we can gain the trust of Texas contributors to stop giving to candidates outside of Texas.

I'm sure Bill White is kicking himself for not running instead of Bell for Governor. We missed another opportunity but you can't blame him for succumbing to the "Sanchez Effect".

---

by: frhetoric @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 01:44:02 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

wow (3.00 / 1)

For 6 years you've carried a chip on your shoulder for not getting an account?  After 6 years you let loose in an anonymous comment on a blog?

As Perry said during that campaign, it's time to move on down the road.  Lessons were learned and the rest of the party has grown and evolved, Dallas has flipped with Houston close behind and even with last night's results the Texas House is closer than ever.

No wonder you aren't getting hired, you keep trying to fight the Tony Sanchez campaign from 2002 while the rest of the state is looking forward to 2008 and 2010.

---

by: Joe @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 02:02:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Last response (maybe) (0.00 / 0)

Dallas is cyclical look at the trends. Dallas did quite a bit in '04 and I don't want to belittle what was done there. They did a great job with the resources they were given they're a great example of qualified operatives.

If you that pursing an account in Texas through a blog is your interpretation of this blog that's wrong. Instead I've spent my time in Kansas, Pennsylvania and Florida winning marginal districts and a governors race. You can't enrich your skills if you don't expose your self to different demographics.

With the exception of Florida those states get it. They invest in there field organizing two years out. If get to know the people your investment pays off on election day. The election '00 shows that for example Hispanics and African Americans can't be just be expected to come out every time just because.  

Texas is very top heavy with chiefs with antiquated methods. Targeting, analyzing numbers and spending money is not rocket science it's the execution that makes the difference.

Blogs have never been my thing. I joined only recently a few other blogs because it opens the dialog for change and the potential to organize. You can make references to a grudge but if there's anything I've said in previous post that has changed in Texas point it out to me.

I'm working on another degree to enrich some of my skills to help future Democratic candidacies. If you give people controlled tools and a "mission" you get ten fold your investment. I hope to have a technological product out in the next two years that integrates some of Travis County's successful programs, MoveOn's '04 model, and  
some new technology free.

I think I've killed this post to death.

---

by: frhetoric @ Thu Mar 06, 2008 at 03:09:22 AM UTC

[ Parent ]