Noriega Leads Democratic Primary Poll for Texas Senate

Correction... Noriega is coming in second (0.00 / 0)

This is a very high percentage of undecided voters, even higher than the percentage for Noriega. A lot of people who attended the only debate or listened to it online feel that McMurrey topped Noriega on the issues. And if you look again at the websites of McMurrey and Noriega, you'll see that the underdog has more clearly articulated his positions, and the front-runner doesn't go into the issues in much depth, not even with the issues that he seems to care most about. So please spell McMurrey's name right, and stop dismissing his effort as a "vanity campaign."

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by: MarkCamann @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:03:58 PM UTC

no, Noriega is first (0.00 / 0)

there is no bubble for 'undecided' on the ballot.

Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:47:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There's no bubble . . . (1.00 / 1)

But there ARE voters.

Noriega's own pollster today tried to dull expectations for Noriega's turnout by saying they expect a run-off.

Sounds like someone is running scared to me. (PLUS, Noriega is running TV spots -- which wouldn't happen if he didn't think he needed to worry about winning the primary.)

And you really think he can beat Cornyn given that he can't win the primary out-right?

McMurrey has already run a better campaign than Noriega. Noriega has proven he can't run an effective campaign.

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by: Triangulation of Death @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 23:04:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It was obvious (0.00 / 0)

That McMurrey topped Noriega at the debate.

No one can deny that.

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by: Triangulation of Death @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 23:11:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

unfriggin' believable (2.50 / 2)

who are these people who keep supporting Gene Kelly? Have young/first time voters even heard of the actor Gene Kelly?  Singing in the Rain was almost 60 years ago and he's been dead for 12 years.  Are the old repeat voters so clueless that they'll vote for the same empty name time and time again without figuring out the ruse?

I think there's got to be people out there who actually are voting in sound mind and body for Gene Kelly.  Maybe they like his dogged persistence.  Maybe it's his boyishly good looks.  Or maybe they just like messin' with us. year after year. election after election.

sigh

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:16:36 PM UTC

Oh just send them this URL (5.00 / 1)

www.genekellyforsenate.com

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by: sonia @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:19:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It IS young people (5.00 / 1)

Look at the crosstabs. Voters ages 18-29 actually pick Kelly as the LEADING candidate, 30%-22% over Noriega. It's the older voters who are smart and/or take voting seriously - Noriega's support gets larger with as you go up in each age bracket.

The notion that young people are pure and idealistic is bullshit. A few of them are, but most of them are dumbasses. (And with that statement, I just earned my membership in the crusty old curmudgeon club. Damn, and I don't even turn 40 for another six months.)

Too weird to be a Texan, too Texan to live anywhere else.

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by: ernesttubb @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 02:47:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Barack/Kelly '08!!!!!!!!!!!!! (0.00 / 0)

:)

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 02:59:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

42% undecided is pretty high this late in the process (3.00 / 2)

What I actually think has happened is that the whole contested presidential primary has taken every available minute in the minds of the voters.  They're scrambling to get caught up now on other races.  

Case in point I had two friends contact me yesterday about who to vote for in local races. They didn't want to rely on just the Austin Chronicle.  And both had gotten the mailer from The Austin Progressive Coalition which of course endorsed Rick Noriega.

They're moving to making a decision soon.  Both were voting today.  Last day to early vote!

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by: sonia @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:18:13 PM UTC

Inquiring minds win out over endorsements (3.00 / 1)

It's great to see people making up their own minds instead of relying just on newspapers and interest groups.

And I might be unpoopular for pointing this out, but a part (however small) of Gene Kelly's vote might be coming from people doing their own research by looking at the League of Women Voters guide.

This time, Gene Kelly managed to pass himself off in the League of Women Voters guide as a marginally credible candidate. It's a far cry from his 2006 questionnaire, in which he protested that candidates shouldn't have to state their opinion on every issue (what a goon!).

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by: MarkCamann @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:29:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ah, thanks (2.00 / 1)

I didn't know he was actually returning questionnaires.  I thought he just filed and did nothing else.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:32:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Vanity Campaign? (3.00 / 2)

Only rich guys run vanity campaigns.  McMurrey is driving all over this state to talk about the issues with people, and has won a lot of them over.  How can the only guy with real positions on the issues be running a vanity campaign?  I don't think you even know what that means.  

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by: Jeff Versteeg @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 22:51:46 PM UTC

"Only guy with real positions"? (0.00 / 0)

What fantasy land do you reside in?
Look, I like Ray, he seems like a good guy and a sincere one.
But there's a difference between a 'good guy' and a 'serious and viable candidate'. And whoever "Triangulation of Death" is, do wake up and realize that 32% = 4 x 8%.

Even if McMurrey had a chance in hell of beating Rick Noriega - and he doesn't - he'll be a bug on Cornyn's windshield come November. If you can't raise money, you can't win a Senate seat - period. And no amount of debating and being a sincere progressive is gonna change that for Ray. If he was 'serious', he'd have started small and built some sort of record as an effective and respected public servant first.  

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by: Robert Ryland @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 02:51:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

BTW (1.00 / 2)

You're pretty late on this.

And if you actually examine the poll, I think you'll see how unreliable it is.

But I don't want to ask too much of you.

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by: Triangulation of Death @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 23:18:31 PM UTC

Layout weirdness (0.00 / 0)

I wish people wouldn't use long titles in their website posts. It screws up our layout when they feed into the leftblogs feed on the bottom left column.

GRRRRRR. Should be gone in the next 10 minutes though when it refreshes.  

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Fri Feb 29, 2008 at 23:35:25 PM UTC

sorry (0.00 / 0)

What are the character limits?

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by: sonia @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 00:21:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

no it wasn't you (0.00 / 0)

It was someone else's blog with a longtitlethathadnobreaksinit.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 05:20:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

That sucks. McMurrey is getting beat by a dead dancer! (1.50 / 2)

Maybe McMurrey should demand that Kelly disclose his dancing records.

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by: johncoby @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 03:39:44 AM UTC

it's fun to laugh and all (2.00 / 1)

but none of the above is beating Noriega.  I seriously hope these new voters pick up a newspaper or look for a yard sign or something.  This is when people pushing cards become incredibly valuable.

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by: Joe @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 03:44:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry, read that wrong (0.00 / 0)

"Undecided" not "none of the above"

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by: Joe @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 03:45:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is unfair (3.00 / 1)

to call McMurrey a "vanity" candidate.  While I intern for and support Noriega, I do think McMurrey is a decent candidate who I think would be a good choice for something like state representative.  He is running to get his voice out there, and I have no problem with it.

I do hope it doesn't end in a run off, and that fewer are dumb enough as in this poll to vote for Gene Kelly.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

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by: Timothy @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 06:11:17 AM UTC

different take (3.00 / 1)

Noriega wins without a runoff.

5 months ago I tested Noriega's name ID in a large, south texas district: 38.

Not too hot, right? But actually it is, here's why: the poll was taken while Watts and Noriega were both still in the race (Watts' name ID was 39), but before Noriega started doing anything. His base name ID was better than 1 in 3.

Admitedly Noriega hasn't exactly barnstormed the state on a biplane with a bullhorn throwing money out the window, but he has traveled extensively and earned substantial media coverage in isolated markets. He sat at my table at the Mr. South Texas luncheon last week and had a huge list of places he was going when he left there.

But having a base that is Houston where you are popular and have run multiple times (AND your wife just ran successfully on a city-wide ballot)ain't a bad thing.

Furthermore, in a race where candidates haven't heard a lot from any of the candidates, Hispanic voters in South Texas, the RGV and El Paso are more inclined to vote for a Hispanic surname (ala Victor Morales '96).

Noriega is correct to spend money on paid communications, but the true test of his ability to win in November will be how much he invests in the shoe leather budget. Has he traveled enough? And has that travel touched the right folks? And, as a state rep...did he maximize his earned media coverage in the largest media market in the state?

There is a strong case, in retrospect, to be made that Noriega should have agreed to debate mcmurrey in each of the top 6 media markets. There is also somewhat of a lesson to be learned for other office holders: communicate constantly to as wide a universe as possible...because you never know when you'll need it.

I can't remember the last time Texas decided a US Senate primary without a runoff, so it is kinda par for the course.

But I do think Noriega pulls it out with a bare majority, 53%. Coming into the new year, Noriega was on target to match Kirk's 02 funds raised. The cap on federal campaigns back then was $1,000 per person per cycle and we had soft money vs. now at $2,300 pp per cycle and no soft money.

Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 17:59:58 PM UTC

I think you're right on this (0.00 / 0)

Noriega's people saw debates as an opportunity to lose ground to McMurrey when they should have saw them as an opportunity to earn some media.  As of now, it doesn't look like they have enough money to defeat Cornyn strictly on paid media.

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Sun Mar 02, 2008 at 03:18:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gene Freaking Kelley on a pogo stick! (0.00 / 0)

When will this man stop making us look like fools by perpetually running for office!

Gene, do us all a favor: get a new hobby...golf? crossword puzzles? please.

"A time comes when silence is betrayal." Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr.

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by: liberaldemdave @ Sat Mar 01, 2008 at 19:11:07 PM UTC