TX exit poll: Clinton 41, Obama 38

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Other 17% (presumably Edwards, Dodd, Richardson, and other presidential candidates who have suspended campaigns but remain on the Texas ballot) and Undecided 4%.This outfit — People Calling People/Texas Voyager (.pdf, scroll to bottom) — used an automated interactive call to 408 respondents, self-declared Democrats who have already voted in the March 4 primary.  The MoE is 4.85%, and calls were conducted between 6 and 9 p.m. on the evenings of February 26 and 27.

So it's a dead heat.

Neither Kuffner nor BOR, the real gurus for these sorts of numbers, appear to have blogged this yet so opinions as to validity, integrity and so on I'll leave to them and similar experts as to whether or not this is good data.

It seems to contradict the supposition that the “surge x 10″ of early voting is driven by the Obama campaign.  I suppose we will have to wait and see.

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6 Comments

  1. Phew
    Glad to hear that these folks are fly by night.  It would be interesting if a real polling outfit did some exit polls on early voting.

    • Rasmussen and Survey USA did
      The Feb 24 Rasmussen poll had Clinton up by 1 overall, but said that among the early voters (29% of the sample), Obama had a big lead. (They didn't say how big.) SUSA said that Obama was ahead by 4, but that the early vote (25% of the sample) favored Clinton 51-46. Today's Rasmussen poll has Obama up by 4, but doesn't discuss the early vote. Who's right is anybody's guess.  

      • Clarification of other = 17%
        Voters frequently decline to state their preference to pollsters–either automated or live.  Such early voters chose the “otherwise” option in our automated poll.  

        -Ron Turner, People Calling People

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