| Election Day for the Texas primary is one week away, and Senator Hillary Clinton’s campaign is staking the survival of her candidacy on winning the states of Ohio and Texas. Her ability to win Texas rests largely in her ability to turn out Hispanic Democrats – a demographic that helped deliver the State of California for her on Super Tuesday. Last Wednesday, February 20, Sergio Bendixen visited the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University (where I am currently studying) to discuss polling and the Hispanic vote. Though he couldn't speak about the specific strategies of the Clinton campaign in Texas, he did agree to a brief interview for Burnt Orange Report. Bendixen has been a leading expert in the field of Hispanic polling for more than twenty years, and is currently President of his own public opinion research, management, and communications consulting firm, Bendixen & Associates. He has worked as the chief pollster for each of the four major Spanish-language television stations, including Univision and Telemundo. Here is my interview, along with some facts, figures, and examples he presented to my media and politics class: Phillip Martin: What caused the “sleeping giant” that is the Hispanic electorate to wake up? Sergio Bendixen: The main reason both in the 1990’s and in the last two or three years that Hispanics have started voting has to do with the demagogic reactionary way in which immigration was being talked about. Millions of Hispanics felt that if they did not become citizens and start voting that life would become difficult for them in America, and the anti-immigrant movement could get to the point where they would be asked to leave. Example 1: Bill O'Reilly, May 29, 2007 (from Crooks and Liars) Bill O'Reilly: But do you understand what the New York Times wants, and the far-left want? They want to break down the white, Christian, male power structure, which you're a part, and so am I, and they want to bring in millions of foreign nationals to basically break down the structure that we have.
Example 2: Michael Savage, July 5, 2007 (from MediaMatters) Then there's the story of college students who are fasting out here in the Bay Area. They're illegal aliens and they want green cards simply because they're students. I don't understand what -- how this two and two adds up. I would say, let them fast until they starve to death, then that solves the problem. Because then we won't have a problem about giving them green cards because they're illegal aliens; they don't belong here to begin with.
Martin: How do Democrats keep Hispanics in their electoral column for years to come? Bendixen: Hispanics learned a big lesson in 2000 and 2004 when they fell for the Bush “hugs and kisses strategy.” Now, I think, they’ve learned that the important things that effect their life –the economy, their access to good health care, financing for their public schools, a fair immigration policy – are much more important than having someone talk to you in Spanish or wave the Mexican flag in their commercials [as President Bush did in previous elections]. This has caused them to return to the Democratic Party. The Democrats, however, must deliver on these issues. Whoever wins the primary must pass universal health care, must pass immigration reforms, and must end the war in Iraq. If they do that they will keep the Hispanic voters and maybe even gain some more. | Breakdown of Hispanic Vote by Political Party in Recent United States Elections | | Year | Democrat | Republican | | 1996 | 73% | 21% | | 2000 | 62% | 35% | | 2004 | 58% | 40% | | 2006 | 69% | 30% | | 2008* | 75% | 25% | | Source: Bendixen & Associates. *Projected figures. |
Martin: Senator Clinton performed well with Hispanics in California. Do you see any tangible differences between California Hispanics and Texas Hispanics? Bendixen. I think that Texas Hispanic voters are a lot more interested in the military, in how we treat the soldiers that come back from Iraq and Afghanistan, and I think they are less interested in immigration policy than Hispanic voters in California. That has a lot to do with the makeup of the electorate in those two states. Almost one-half of Hispanics in California are immigrants, compared to only 18% in Texas. Phillip's note: In his class presentation, Mr. Bendixen noted that there are two large segments of Hispanics -- those who are English-language dominant (AZ, TX, NM, CO, NV), and those who are Spanish-language dominant (CA, NY, FL).
Martin: Is the alleged generational split among Hispanics real, or over-hyped? Bendixen: I would say it’s a lesser split than maybe among the general population where we are seeing huge numbers of young people getting involved in the process to support both candidates. Among Hispanics you see some of that, but to a lesser extent. The big differential is that between the immigrant voter and that of the native born voter. Phillip's note: In his class presentation, Mr. Bendixen noted that it normally takes 10-15 years for new immigrants to become assimilated to the point where they become active members of the voting electorate. That's why, after the 1986 amnesty act, we saw Hispanic electorate participation jump in1996 and 2000. As demographics shift in the national census, we tend to think that explains the increase in Hispanic turnout -- when really you have to look at what may have happened 10-15 years ago to see if there's any true "electoral shifts" due to an immigration policy.
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