| The Texas primaries come closer and closer to us--daily. Only one day of voting remains anywhere else in the country before Texas officially casts all of its ballots, and that day, the 19th, also happens to be the day people will start early voting in the Lone Star State.
Here at the Burnt Orange Report we parade the slogan "Our Eyes Are Upon You, Texas," but Senators Clinton and Obama could easily claim the same phrase right now. In our great state, they both seem to be pulling out all the stops they think useful. The reason everyone might be watching Texas probably has a lot to do with the importance pundits are putting on March 4 combined with the small amount of numbers that are actually available to us.
James Carville: She’s behind. Make no mistake. If she loses either Texas or Ohio, this thing is done. Texas and Ohio. Ohio's big, but there is a major difference between the two states. According to Pollster.com's graphs , one can see that in Ohio, Senator Clinton has been leading and is only continuing so with an upward trend in the polls. Meanwhile, in Texas, although we seem to mostly be limited to IVR, Obama seems to be gaining on the former First Lady. Additionally, KT's analysis shows that with the most recent poll, Obama might even be winning the delegate race. In an ARG poll, he is actually LEADING THE ENTIRE THING. Another interesting note: on the InTrade Prediction Markets, Clinton leads Obama significantly in the Ohio bidding, but Obama's price for the Texas primaries is actually higher than Clinton's, with his stock here being about 2 points (out of 100) more.
So it is with good reason. All their eyes really are upon us. Below the fold we will discuss, given that, the different routes the candidates are taking. |
A Needed Victory
Let's take a look first at Senator Clinton. Because this seems that this is one of her "do or die" states, her focus on Texas might appear more drastic. For example, instead of focusing on the primaries this coming week, she spent the night of last Tuesday in El Paso courting the Texas Hispanic vote. Her strength in California was largely with the Hispanic population, and she hopes to win Texas the same way. The campaign has even imported Averell "Ace" Smith, the man who led her to victory in California, to run the Texas charge. Apparently he is good enough to be likened to an ace pitcher on a baseball staff.
The Clinton Campaign also began running television advertisements in Texas before Senator Obama. Even though Ms. Clinton seems to have a fundraising disadvantage at this point, the plan is to have a "fundraiser a day to keep the nomination in play" and keep her ads running well in Texas. Texas is a big market, and if Obama can reach saturation level -- it would certainly help if she does, too; even if the affordability is less plausible.
And while most of the direct Clinton focus is in Texas, there seems to be a secondary plan that she hopes will lead her to victory on the 4th. That's Wisconsin. As recently as February 7 she has led in polls there, and since Obama tends to overachieve in Public Opinion surveys, there is no reason to think this state isn't in play. A win in Wisconsin would be a significant stopper to help slow the Obama-momentum, and her campaign is so confident in that idea that she released the first ever Obama v. Clinton negative advertisement. No matter who you are, you don't want to go into Texas against a major winning streak, and with that ad, and she is resorting to new strategies to stop it...
Trying to Finish her Off
Although Texas isn't a must-win state for Obama like it now seems to be for his opponent, it doesn't mean he isn't trying just as hard. He would love a knock-out punch before Pennsylvania and, more importantly, before the Convention. He might be weaker in Pennsylvania than both Ohio and Texas, and a Convention fight surely means a nasty episode if not an entire election loss.
Especially if he wins Wisconsin, Texas will represent his first opportunity since New Hampshire for any sort of knock-out punch. He missed the opportunity then, and I'm sure his staffers are upset about it enough to infinitely enjoy a Lone Star vindication. That said, though; he strategically started the post-Potomic days in Wisconsin. While Hilary was in El Paso Tuesday evening, Barack was giving his victory speech in that state. He even responded quickly to Clinton's attack ad with one of his own. A win in Wisconsin (and presumptively in the other primaries that day) would mean a 10-state winning streak. 10 is a magic number in our culture, and the momentum to come of it would be spectacular. Momentum probably represents one of the Obama keys to victory in Texas (and Ohio), so a Wisconsin victory might be vital to finishing the game early in March.
Moreover, via Phillip's three main points, the Obama campaign is doing something in Texas that it hasn't done much of before. Obama has performed well in Caucuses, and Obama has performed well in metropolitan areas. However, Obama did not do much Hispanic courting before this state. The campaign claims it won't "cede one inch of the Hispanic vote to anybody" and even put his field headquarters in San Antonio to prove it.
And Obama's done one other thing that might be as intriguing as Clinton beginning a possible string of attack ads, even if the move was more subtle. Since Tuesday, Mr. Obama has spoken with policy as much as he has spoken of change. This might be more of an overall campaign move than a Texas move, but he is starting to show significant substance to go with that change...
Let's Get Ready to Rumble
Since Tuesday, things have already been captivating to watch from a state where everything is bigger, with a usual exception of elections. Now the elections in Texas might be bigger, too. Whether you already support a candidate or whether you are still pondering a decision -- the coming weeks will certainly be some of the most riveting in recent memory for Texas Democrats. |
