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A Tease on the IVR Polling in Texas: Obama Building Momentum


by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas

Thu Jan 31, 2008 at 09:00 AM CST


From our IVR poller, in a comment:
A preview of the first post-Edwards poll in Texas has Obama gaining more than Clinton. I don't think this is Obama getting most of Edwards' support as most of his improvement is in areas where Edwards did poorly. The Jan 10 poll had Obama almost tied with Clinton among Latino males. In this poll, they are tied, and Obama has also made significant gains among Latino women who had previously been Clinton's strongest supporters. Edwards had very little support in the Latino and African American demographics, so Obama's gains must have come from Clinton.

Age-wise, Obama did 28 points better among voters under 40, while Clinton did 28 points better among voters 60+. Middle aged folks were evenly split.

Mike Gravel tripled his support to 3%!

I've got some more calls to make tomorrow, so no hard numbers, but I'd estimate that Obama has picked up better than twice as many votes as Clinton. I'd say she had most likely dropped support prior to picking up some from Edwards.

We'll obviously let you know as soon as full numbers are out.
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