Open Thread - Texas Coattails

Major coattails (0.00 / 0)

By the time November rolls around, the Republican party will be in even more disarray.  

If it is Obama or Edwards, coupled with Adrian Garcia running for Sheriff, Rick Noriega running for Senate, Chief Bradford running against Chuck Rosenthal or Leitner (I think a court won't let Rosenthal off of the ballot), Mincberg running for County Judge, a full slate of judges, Loren Jackson running for District Clerk, and Diane Trautman running for Tax Assessor Collector, and Vince Ryan for County Judge, then I really like Democrats' chances of turning Harris County bluer than blue.  

Look at the opposition.  No one is going to pour out for John Cornyn or Paul Bettencourt.  No one is going to run through walls for Ed Emmet or Charles Bacarisse.  I can't imagine anyone getting excited about Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney or John "my moment passed in 2000" McCain.

If it's Hillary Clinton, it'll be tougher, but still very winnable for Dems in Harris County.

As the Democratic candidate for the 151st Civil District Court, I sure hope so, at least.

Mike Engelhart

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by: mengelhart @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 02:41:56 AM UTC

John Edwards has the coattails (3.00 / 1)

He leads on most of the head-to-head matches.

Another time, I will post longer about this topic, but Edwards declared today he is in the long haul, beyond Feb 5th, so don't give up on his candidacy, even if Obama is ahead at the moment.  

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by: Benny @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:06:51 AM UTC

A good ad by John Edwards in NH (3.00 / 1)

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

And this note from Blue NH: http://www.bluehampshire.com/s...

Today John Edwards had an amazing group of guests to talk about health care concerns.  Look here.

Molly Ivins would appreciate those families' concerns--and would suggest to us to support the most progressive candidate, not the ones with the most money or glitz.

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by: Benny @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:13:37 AM UTC

You're smokin' that Austin skunk weed (0.00 / 0)

I love Edwards message. And if he's still in it when we get to vote, he'll have mine. But he won't survive a third place finish in New Hampshire. Not with the money he has and the money he won't have after that result. Like Hillary, he's up against a phenom.

Anyone who caught the speech Obama made after winning Iowa vs the speeches HRC or Edwrds made saw the difference. You felt you were watching someone, well, Presidential, or at least the closest thing this side of the "West Wing" to it.

And if that's the case, then we'll really find out how different a state this is these days come November.

I actually think at this point Obama on the ballot would put the fear of God into Texas Republicans who thought they could demagogue HRC to lots of down-the-ballot victories. Dare I say - Obama might be Tom Craddick's greatest threat at this point.

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by: stacksucker @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 04:39:35 AM UTC

Edwards has the longest tails. Ideologically, I'm no fan (0.00 / 0)

and he's no longer viable, but I think Richardson would have had the second longest.

Obama has coattails, but not too much.

Hillary is ballot poison.

I'd love to see Edwards head our ticket, but we could survive an Obama candidacy.  Hillary would sink our ticket across the state in close races.

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by: StopCornyn @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:09:55 AM UTC

What's wrong with Hillary? (0.00 / 0)

Could someone explain why Hillary would be ballot poison.  I think she's the best qualified to be President

I believe the role of government is to protect our private rights and enable our collective responsibilities.

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by: lirwin @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 07:20:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's an example: I've seen 1 Hillary bumoer sticker; I've seen 3 (0.00 / 0)

Anyone But Hillary bumper stickers.

Hillary unites the Republican base in a way that Giuliani, Romney, McCain, or Huckabee never could.  I can name a dozen Republicans who will likely not bother to show up to vote for Giuliani or Romney -- but they likely would show up to vote against Hillary.

She's just too divisive.

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by: StopCornyn @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 09:24:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Only Believe Half of What You See/Hear (0.00 / 0)

The only candidate whose national poll numbers are close to reliable are Hillary's.  The public has been more transparent in their like/dislike of Hillary.  

Obama's going to have a substantial number of voters who expressed their willingness to support him over the phone but would have a change of heart in the booth.  

Edwards gets us slaughtered for being a trial lawyer...sorry but that's still red meat for many Texans and would especially hurt Noriega.  

We can count Hillary's numbers...and perhaps even insulate those downballot races from her liabilities.  Not so with the other two because we don't have an accurate picture of people's TRUE feelings towards them.

Yosef

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by: Yosef @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:33:00 AM UTC

agreed (3.00 / 1)

This is the main reason I've been hesitant to commit to Obama -- he's just too much of an unknown.  I don't really know what to expect from him given that he's only been on the national stage 3-4 years.  A lot of independents and some repubs are taking a flyer on him now, but will they stick with him in November after nine months of Republican demonization (I've already seen a few of the talking points that are going to be floated)?  It's definitely a risk.

That being said, the other two have the weaknesses you mentioned above, so it's not like the choice is clear.  If I had to vote tomorrow, I'd probably vote Obama and hope McCain isn't the Republican nominee (the experience differential there would be stark -- he's probably the only R who could win).

Regarding coattails, Edwards would have the best (Southern Democrat), Hillary the worst, and Obama would probably be neutral, depending on how successful the Repubs are in defining him on their terms. I think the trial lawyer label would hurt Edwards, but not much more than the Democrat label will.  Given the malpractice reform passed a few years ago, is it possible the issue has receded in salience among the voters?

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by: Kedron Touvell @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:49:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Nah... the numbers don't support it anymore... (0.00 / 0)

the old Trial Lawyer saw don't work no more, as an East Texas resident I know recently put it. For one thing, costs haven't come down even since tort reform, they've gone up. And trust me, folks are noticing it. They're also hearing about people not being able to get a dime in medmal cases. It's resonating and the majority of people in this state don't want to hear a damn thing about the horrible trial lawyers.

In fact, the one of the many groups more hated in East Texas right now than a trial lawyer are the Republican's. Namely, Cornyn and CradDICK.

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by: McBlogger @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 19:35:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hillary would be bad (0.00 / 0)

she would motivate too many people to come out and vote against here who would also vote downballot Republican.  Obama would be the opposite, if he can prove himself to overcome people's doubts about his experience.  Richardson would have been great, especially for the Hispanic vote, but he doesn't really have a chance at this point.

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

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by: Timothy @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:33:47 AM UTC

Too Pollyanna (0.00 / 0)

Richardson is great but he would have a lot of explaining to do from his mishaps while Sec of Energy...

The R's have a reason to get motivated over any of the Big 3...sure if it's Obama they'll say its his experience but that doesn't hold in comparison to the "experience" of W and they elected him (twice).  It's not really Obama's experience that concerns them...

Winning back the White House and Texas won't be a cake walk and although I think all of our candidates would be great (Biden included/Kucinich excluded) everything changes this summer. We can't look at Nov. through the Pollyanna shaded glasses we have on now.

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by: Yosef @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:51:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually (0.00 / 0)

Actually, Texas isn't a coat-tail state.  The top of the ticket will probably lose here but we may still see some incremental gains in certain counties throughout the state

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by: Yosef @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 05:58:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Agreed (0.00 / 0)

If you look at the resume's of Lincoln when he entered office and Obama, they are very similar!

I definitely that we shouldn't be over-confident or cocky.  The Democrats in Congress have not done very well.  There is no guarantee that the election will go great for us.  

"I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually."- James A. Baldwin

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by: Timothy @ Mon Jan 07, 2008 at 06:29:17 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

On the wings of Obama (0.00 / 0)

First, Hillary is poison to down ballot Dems in red states.  The passion she instills far surpasses any passion the Rep. will have for ANY nominee.  We can all take a deep sigh of relief though, as she is done.  Sure, there is a possibilty of a comeback, but mark my word, it will be Obama.  I agree McCain is the worst case senario though.

Second, having just witnessed(and caucused for) Obama in Iowa I say with much confidence that he will be a national change maker.  He has the ability that few, if any, politicians have.  That is the ability to bring in large numbers of new voters.  The numbers in Iowa were like nothing the state had ever seen before.  A large youth vote(in an old state), double the participation of 4 years ago and a lot of new non-voters coming out.  All were driven overwhelmingly by Obama.  I believe we will see similar numbers in NH tommorrow.  He is the real deal.  Whether he will be the real deal as president is tbd.  But as far as a candidate he would be a God-send to Dems in marginal districts in Texas.  This is particularly because this is such an apethetic state, ripe for an awakening.

Third, I know that people down here are far from the Presidential goings-on, but I look forward to watching the convertion as this thing moves forward.  The man is a force of nature and has the oppurtunity and ability to turn American politics upside down.  Say hello to the new leader of the Democratic Party.

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by: BJazz @ Tue Jan 08, 2008 at 05:48:36 AM UTC