| Over the next eleven months, we at Burnt Orange Report are committed to doing our best to provide insight and analysis on the upcoming election season, particularly in regards to the Texas House. Obviously, there is a lot to be learned from all the races. But now that filings are in, here is (what I hope) to be an accurate breakdown of filings for the Texas House, based on county websites, the TDP and Texas GOP websites, and (because I'm dumb and looked there last) Capitol Inside's scorecard:
Incumbent Democrats challenged in primary (non-open seats): 10
Rep. Dora Olivo, Rep. Kino Flores, Rep. Aaron Pena, Rep. Juan Escobar, Rep. Dawnna Dukes, Rep. Paul Moreno, Rep. Kevin Bailey, Rep. Borris Miles, Rep. Garnet Coleman, and Rep. Jessica Farrar.
Of these 9, only 4 were ever considered "Craddick D's": Flores, Pena, Dukes, and Bailey. Rep. Borris Miles will be facing off against former legislator and cheerleading-hater Rep. Al Edwards.
Incumbent Republicans challenged in primary (non-open seats): 15
Rep. Betty Brown, Rep. Byron Cook, Rep. Charlie Howard, Rep. Charles Anderson, Rep. Phil King, Rep. Nathan Macias, Rep. Pat Haggerty, Rep. Buddy West, Rep. Bill Zedler, Rep. Charlie Geren, Rep. Thomas Latham, Rep. Joe Crabb, Rep. John Davis, Rep. Corbin Van Arsdale, and Rep. Gary Elkins.
So for all those who think Democrats spend too much time going after each other in primaries, just look at these two lists -- Republicans are much worse. At a quick glance, Rep. Betty Brown faces a tough race (she barely beat Wade Gent, her challenger, in last year's primary). Rep. Cook and Rep. Haggerty both face strong opponents who are strongly supportive of Craddick. And Joe Tison is running against Rep. Phil King, who is an ex-mayor and ex-superintendent.
Democratic Seats Challenged by Republicans (Including Open Seats): 32
This number includes two open seats (detailed below), as well as two seats where a Democrat also faces a primary opponent (Rep. Farrar and Rep. Olivo). Democrats will face several tough races to hold seats, including protecting our two pick-ups from 2007 (Barrett and England).
Republican Seats Challenged by Democrats (Including Open Seats): 38
This number includes 5 open seats (detailed below), as well as ten seats where a Republican also faces a primary opponent (compared to only 2 for Democrats). There are numerous potential races to watch here, and we will go into much, much more detail as the political season continues.
Democratic Open Seats Up for Grabs: 2
- In HD 17 (Rep. Robby Cook), two Democrats will face off against Republican Kleinschmidt, who narrowly lost to Cook in '06. This is a key race to watch for House Democrats.
- In HD 145 (Rep. Rick Noriega), two Democrats -- including Houston City Councilwoman Carol Alvarado -- are lined up to fill Noriega's open seat. The primary winner will more than likely fill this open spot.
Republican Open Seats Up for Grabs: 5- HD 29 (Rep. Mike O'Day) - 3 Republican challengers and Democrat Kevin Murphy, whose candidacy we announced yesterday here on BOR.
- HD 52 (Rep. Mike Krusee) - 4 Republicans are squaring off in a primary to figure out who will lose to Diana Maldonado.
- HD 55 (Rep. Diane Delisi) - 4 Republican challengers will go through the primary process before facing Democrat Samuel Murphy.
- HD 112 (Rep. Fred Hill) - 3 Republican challengers enter the primary race with Democrat Sanrda VuLe.
- HD 144 (Rep. Robert Talton) - 3 Republicans will battle to see who will run against Democrat Joel Redmond.
I'll take another look at filings over the weekend to see if I missed anything. Let us know which races you are watching. |
