Hispanic Voters Shifting to Democrats

by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Mon Dec 10, 2007 at 04:59 PM CST

Some 57% of Hispanic registered voters now call themselves Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party -- meaning there is now a 34-percentage-point gap in partisan affiliation among Latinos. In July 2006, the same gap measured just 21 percentage points -- whereas back in 1999, it had been 33 percentage points.

Here are some of the importing bullet points.

• By 44% to 8%, Hispanic registered voters say the Democrats rather than the Republicans are the party with more concern for Latinos. However, a large slice of Latino registered voters (41%) say there is no difference between the parties.
• By 41% to 14%, Hispanic registered voters say the Democrats rather than the Republicans are the party doing the better job of dealing with illegal immigration. Some 26% say neither, and 12% say they don't know.
• Immigration has become a more important issue to Latinos since the last election. Some 79% of Hispanic registered voters now say it is an "extremely" or "very" important issue in the upcoming presidential race; up from 63% who said the same thing in June 2004. Immigration still ranks behind education, health care, the economy and crime, but it is the only issue that has risen so sharply in importance since 2004.
• Some 41% of Latino registered voters say the policies of the Bush Administration have been harmful to Hispanics, while just 16% say they have been helpful. Another third (33%) say they have had no particular effect.

Now, I know you're thinking. KT's going to point out how this relates to a certain U.S. Senate race in Texas. Wrong. I'm going to let Evan Smith of Texas Monthly do it instead.

Disengaged from actual voting decisions -- from an actual choice between actual candidates -- numbers of this kind can mean nothing. But I have a hard time seeing how they're not good news for an Hispanic Democrat running for the U.S. Senate against a Republican hard-liner on immigration in what's likely to be, even in Texas, a good Democratic year.