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Tx-Sen: Noriega, Watts, Cornyn 3rd Quarter Numbers


by: Sarah White

Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 08:45 AM CDT


Ed. note: In other 3rd quarter news -- for those who missed Matt's story earlier -- Rep. Mike McCaul (TX-10) is in debt. Read more by clicking here. -- Phillip

From the El Paso Times (thanks to Off the Kuff):

Noriega raised about $508,000 from individuals, not including refunded contributions, for next year's elections. Watts pulled in about $443,000, Federal Election Commission reports showed.

Both hope to challenge Republican Sen. John Cornyn, who will seek a second six-year term. He collected $1.3 million from individual contributors.

"It definitely creates the question whether his first report was kind of a gimmick and really whether he was going to be a self-funded campaign," James Aldrete, Noriega's campaign manager, said of Watts' fundraising.

Watts reported raising $1.1 million in June, when he launched his campaign. In September, he loaned $3.7 million to his primary campaign and vowed to dedicate future contributions to challenging Cornyn.

Kim Devlin, a spokeswoman for Watts, said there was no gimmick. She said about two-thirds of Watts' donors contributed $100 or less each, showing he has true support from everyday voters.

"Mikal's support from a broad spectrum of Texans means we will be able to run an aggressive campaign that hits on all cylinders all over the state."

Here's what we know from the 3rd quarter numbers:

1) Cornyn has lots and lots of money (duh).
2) Watts loans lots and lots of money to himself (duh).
3) Noriega raised more in individual donations than Watts (wow).

I say "wow" because Noriega is working from a much smaller base of supporters (presumably) than Watts, as Watts has hosted and attended prominent fundraisers across the state. I'm certain that Noriega's contributions from the netroots are what pushed him over the edge (and what accounts for his higher percentage of out-of-state contributions).

In any case -- raising over $500k is a great deal from either candidate. Not including Watts' personal checkbook, well over $1 million has been raised to beat Senator Cornyn over a year away from the election. This statewide challenge is already more serious statewide efforts from Democrats in the past.

**Update**Hadn't read the papers before I wrote this, but it looks like R.G. Ratcliffe of the Houston Chronicle agrees that Noriega is doing well. From his column, which is titled, "Wealth may not be enough for Watts in Senate race":

Finance reports filed Monday show San Antonio lawyer Mikal Watts is the wealthiest candidate in the race for the U.S. Senate, but in a heavily Hispanic Democratic primary that money may not give him a huge advantage over state Rep. Rick Noriega of Houston.

The Hispanic voter turnout in Texas still is not heavy enough to have a major impact on a general election, but in the Democratic primary, Latinos make up as much as 35 percent of the vote. And their vote in the past has favored candidates of the same ethnicity.

During the 2002 Democratic U.S. Senate runoff, Dallas Mayor Ron Kirk spent $2 million and had the support of the Democratic Party establishment. Kirk won, but one-time Senate nominee Victor Morales captured 40 percent of the vote while spending just $8,763.

I wrote once that money wasn't as important for Watts as issues were, and that he needed to do better to develop his issues and persona. Fair enough?
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Thanks for the update Sarah (0.00 / 0)
I agree with Ratcliffe, the primary is going to be the key.

If we exclude candidate loans to their campaigns, does anyone have a (0.00 / 0)
comparison of

- how many individual donors have donated to each campaign,

- how much those individuals have donated to each campaign, and

- what percentage of those individual donations has come from Texans versus out-of-state for each candidate?


out-of-state (0.00 / 0)
A) not sure

B) Noriega: $508,000.....Noriega: $443,000...Cornyn: $1.3 million. Those are all 3rd quarter numbers

C) Noriega: 84.7% were from out of state....Watts: 92% were from out-of-state

Those numbers were all from the El Paso Times article that was linked at the start of this post, FYI.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.


[ Parent ]
let's try that again (0.00 / 0)
Individuals: Noriega: $508,000.....NoriegaWatts: $443,000...Cornyn: $1.3 million.

In State: Noriega: 84.7% were from out of state in state....Watts: 92% were from out-of-state in state.


[ Parent ]
Sorry (0.00 / 0)
I was trying to answer this question in class...which is probably not the best idea. :)

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
You say "Noriega: 84.7% were from out of state....Watts: 92% were (0.00 / 0)
from out-of-state."

I think you mean "from Texas" in both contexts. 

I read the El Paso article.  Do you know what's the deal about the "returned contributions" mentioned in the article?

When I get a free moment, I may try to figure out the total number of individual donors identified by both campaigns (without limiting it to the 3Q because I'm particularly curious about how many of Watts' 3Q donors were previously listed among the 800 donors on his report from the first 30 days of his campaign when Watts raised the $1.1 million which preceded his 3Q totals).


[ Parent ]
in general (0.00 / 0)
"returned contributions" sometimes occur when a contributor exceeds the cap ($2,300 per election {primary, general} or if a contributor wasn't eligible (u.s. citizen, over 18), or was a bounced check/denied charge.

It wasn't apparent to me what the article was referring to. Maybe someone else caught it?

Please refer to KT's signature.


[ Parent ]
Wow (0.00 / 0)
This is REALLY amazing and encouraging news!!!  One needn't look hard to see that Noriega has managed to gain amazing traction here in Texas and once the out of state money DOES start coming will become unstopable! :) 

colin and McBlogger have some 'splainin to do (0.00 / 0)
  Here's what I mean. 
  First, when Noriega put out the word Oct. 2 that he'd raised $570K (including a $50K self loan), colin declared "...the number is a joke....the Noriega supporters that were so vocal and so strident that he was the next big thing have fallen silent....the $570K is a huge letdown for Noriega supporters....listen to the silence."  Now Watts posts 3Q totals that are even LOWER -- only $443K (plus a $127K donation from himself).  Whassup, colin?
  Second, the insider McBlogger assured us Cornyn was out of gas.  "Not a single person on this thread has ANY clue what Cornyn is about to go through in terms of fundraising.  Business has already begun to turn the tap off....what you don't know is that traditional funders here in TX have shut off money to him and to the party....he's HATED in the business community and they are the ones who write the checks for the Republican party."  How does that square with $1.7 million raised in the quarter, McBlogger?
  And finally, here's a mystery first spotted by Vince.  Noriega's camp announced Oct. 2 they'd raised $570K.  Watts obviously wanted to match the $570K, so he wrote himself a precise $127,000 check.  But any check written after Sept. 30 is illegal!  How did he know on Sept. 30 what Noriega was going to announce on Oct. 2? 

Noriega announced his total Oct. 1 (0.00 / 0)
a Monday. The deadline was Sept. 30th which was a Sunday when the banks where closed.

Did Watts write the check on Sunday and leave off the amount until Monday, not write the check until Monday and put Sunday's date on it or did he just have a great hunch of what amount he needed to tie Rick?

Watts' $443,000 from individual donors, which 1/3 of them gave less than $100, is an impressive number compared to Noriega's considering that Watts did not have the huge end of the quarter donation drive that Noriega had or the fact that a lot of people stated that Watts had no grassroots support at all.

Those fund raising numbers are cute to talk about but the real numbers that cannot be discounted are these:

Cash on hand:
Watts - $ 8,304,414
Noriega - $ 510,314

It's going to be a fun race.


[ Parent ]
must be nice to be so crazy (0.00 / 0)
unless I am mistaken, this quarter was Noriega's first...i.e. his low-hanging-fruit-quarter.

you and your friends DID fall silent because you were let WAY down by Noriega.

the recent news could be characterized by some (including me) as "listen to the silence", but I'm trying to be a little more polite. clearly you are not.

noriega's numbers are pathetic and will likely get worse.

Please refer to KT's signature.


[ Parent ]
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