 Below is the July installment of the Presidential Primary Tracking Poll conducted by IVR Polls for Burnt Orange Report.
Hillary Clinton and John Edwards hold steady but Barack Obama and Bill Richardson numbers shift dramatically in different directions.
Hillary Clinton is sitting at 41.5% even though the level of undecideds has dropped three points. Last month we had speculated that her ceiling could be the low 40’s and with this 1.4% gain, we could be proven right or wrong very soon. Last month 73% said they were definitely with Clinton, this month that number is down to 66%. While her numbers continue to climb, her strong support level is dropping.
After a 3-point slide the month before, Barack Obama has rallied up to a new high of 20%. While that is still half of Clinton’s support that is a climb well outside the margin of error. That is 5.1% increase in one month and his strong support level has sky rocketed to 41% (up 12 points from last month).
Obama had much stronger Latino support, going from 8% to 19% as well as stronger white support, going from 13% to 20%. While he has been almost unknown outside of the big cities, he had widespread regional improvement this month, gaining in 2/3 of the area codes.
On the other end of the spectrum, New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson saw a dramatic decline. After a solid gain last month, Richardson as now at his lowest level since the poll began four months ago. Richardson is sitting at 5.7% with a 16-point drop in his strong support levels.
Edwards and Richardson are clearly focusing on winning early and I expect to see their numbers remain flat in Texas because of our very late March 5 primary.
The sample size for the July poll was 596 with a margin of error at plus or minus 4%. |
