20 Targets for 2008 (Texas House)

Tip Bucket (4.00 / 2)

When it comes to the Texas State House, we're all 76ers in some way.

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by: RBH @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 04:29:10 AM UTC

PLEASE primary Chisum and Craddick! (0.00 / 0)

Pretty please!  At least SOMETHING of a challenge?  Please?

Disclosure: Former Political Director for Lee Leffingwell for Mayor of Austin ('09)

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by: sccs @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 05:07:58 AM UTC

Did you know that (3.00 / 1)

from 1992 to 2006, Craddick had one Democratic opponent (in 2000) and Chisum hasn't had a single Democratic opponent in (at least) the last eight elections?

The Governor elections from Chisum's district: Perry 49, Carole 20, Bell 16, Kinky 15.

2002 results from HD88: 74/26 Perry and 63/37 Dewhurst.

As for Craddick's district..

2002: 74/26 Perry and 69/31 Dewhurst. In 2006, Perry 54, Carole 21, Bell 13, Kinky 11.

In the AG's race for this year, HD88 went 75/22 for Abbott and HD82 went 79/19 for Abbott.

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by: RBH @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 14:49:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is time for that to change. (3.00 / 1)

There needs to be no Republican in Texas who feels Texas is safe, unchallenged territory for them.

Before you win, you have to fight. Come fight along with us at TexasKaos.

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by: boadicea @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 14:53:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

Very true.

John Smithee was unchallenged in the last eight elections as well.

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by: RBH @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 15:22:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

One problem... (0.00 / 0)

I like the idea of fielding an opponent, but I'd hesitate before we start talking about funding that opponent.  Until we get infinite money, we have to concentrate our meager resources where we can win.

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by: David O. @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 22:33:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yeah (0.00 / 0)

At the very least, getting someone who can raise some money would be good.

Hey, Plan E for the Craddick, Chisum, and Smithee districts involves luring a 'moderate' Republican over to the Democratic party. Although that would go over better if there was nobody running in general. And if the former Republican could mention differences on issues with the current Republicans.

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by: RBH @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 23:05:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mike Krusee (0.00 / 0)

will go down. Just like many of the other officials who backed toll roads, Krusee did horrible on election day. Because Karen Felthauser was an underfunded candidate, Krusee escaped with victory. in 08 he wont be so lucky.

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by: David Mauro @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 06:46:05 AM UTC

Haggarty and Goolsby (3.00 / 1)

were ripe and rotten and ready to fall when Alfred Stanley and I ran the numbers in their districts in 2005. they should be even weaker now.
The problem with Haggarty is he's friends with all the sitting El Paso Democratic Reps because he's a decent guy who's been in office for a thousand years.
We'll have to raise hell and raise money for an opponent to bring someone in to run. Anyone know how Haggarty's district did in the flooding this year?
El Paso is like the New Orleans of Texas -- they got one year's worth of rain in one day this year and the Rio Grande poured forth in rage.
The damage is mostly unrepaired.
All the el paso reps better be busting their asses to get state money to their city.
my gut is that haggarty isn't working as hard as the dems -- pickett, et al. i could be wrong of course.

My comments reflect my own personal opinion and not those of any client or colleague, current, former or future.

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by: Texas Nate @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 21:07:26 PM UTC

Haggerty is a better representative than Chavez. I'd like to see us (3.00 / 1)

replace both with Democrats, but between the two, Chavez occupies the position which would be easier for a Democrat to win.

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by: SouthTexasDemocrat @ Wed Jan 10, 2007 at 22:58:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Newsflash (0.00 / 0)

Hey South Texas,

Save your commentary for South Texas you obviously have no idea about what goes on El Paso.

Norma did have a primary and she won handily.

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by: Aero @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 19:24:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Norma Chavez is Invincible (3.00 / 1)

I'll cross post here some of what I posted on the Pimps thread.

She had primary opposition in March. 

From our unpopular Congressman, Silver Reyes', sister-in-law.

Norma carried every single precinct in her district.  With totals ranging from 70% in some to 86% in others.  The opponent didn't even carry her own precinct.

Norma is out for Norma.  She is ambitious and has made no secret of wanting to seek higher office.  She has had her eye on Congressman Reyes' seat.  Until he got named the only chairman of a House committee in the Texas delegation.  She has admitted publicly she will bide her time for now, but she is ambitious and she will run for higher office.  It's just a question of what office and when.

What you need to know about El Paso is that the interstate is the dividing line.  North and east of I-10 are the middle class Hispanic and Anglo neighborhoods.  South and east of I-10, and sandwiched between the freeway and the international border (look this up on a map) are the Lower Valley neighborhoods that comprise most of her district.  These people are working class Hispanics, many of them recent immigrants,  or the first generation of immigrants still clawing its way up.

They don't read the El Paso Times.  A lot don't listen to or watch English-language media.  Most don't use the Internet.

So, Norma takes $25,000 from Bob Perry and votes with Craddick in Austin.  Then she comes home, waves her Farmworkers' flag, throws a few pachangas in her district, and her people love her and re-elect her. 

In her district, she's invincible.  In a county-wide race, she's almost electable, but not quite. 

Her ambition for higher office and the unlikelihood of her being able to carry a county-wide race by herself is one of the reasons she's recently forged a political alliance with our decidedly progressive State Senator, Eliot Shapleigh. 

He, in turn, faced election opposition for his seat from a Perry-financed Republican this past November.  He needed every single vote in Norma's district to guarantee he'd keep his seat.  The campaign ineptitude of his Republican candidate didn't hurt, either.

Meanwhile, as for Pat Haggerty ... he voted his constiuents', not Perry's/Craddick's, interests in the special sessions on school finance.  Perry and Craddick then found and funded some primary opposition for him.  This scheme was exposed locally and he hung on in his primary.

His district is mostly white and mostly Republican, with a lot of retired military thrown in. That seat's not going to turn Democratic any time soon.

He supported Pitts (what did he have to lose?  He's already got on Craddick knife in his back.) in the Speaker Election. He votes what's best for El Paso, not what Craddick dictates.

Which is a lot more than can be said of Norma Chavez.

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by: carmelita @ Thu Jan 11, 2007 at 17:28:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Carmelita (0.00 / 0)

Your assessment of Norma is incorrect.  Norma does serve her community.  You on the other hand I do not know.

As far as ambitious, what politician is not ambitious?  What is wrong with swinging for the fences.

Norma has done for more El Paso in her 10 years in the House than the "Dean of the House" has done in his 30.  Pickett, unlike Norma, voted in 2003 for the budget that kicked thousands of children off of CHIP.  Chente not much to say there.  And Haggerty, what has he done that Norma hasn't?

Norma also voted against "Perry/Craddick interests.  But like you said many people don't read the newspaper in El Paso, among those people that includes you.

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by: Aero @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 19:21:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

EP Reps (0.00 / 0)

Haggerty votes his district... I wish I could say the same for more R's.  Norma drives everyone insane - both in and out of El Paso.  And after spending all session working on the budget in Appropriations, why would Pickett vote against it in the end?  That wouldn't make any sense. 

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by: Noonie @ Sat Jan 13, 2007 at 19:27:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

STORM'N NORMA CHAVEZ (0.00 / 0)

It's funny to say that you have to look up how El Paso is divided up, the interstate has nothing to do with how the community is divided. You have the beautiful Northeast which consist of lower, middle class families, and Ft. Bliss.  The Westside/Upper Valley consist of higher class families. Central is almost like the Northeast. Eastside is middle and higher class famlilies. Segundo Barrio, Downtown, and Lower Valley consist of lower class families. You see that's what happens when your an effective representative, the people see the progressivness in thier district.  So when your EFFECTIVE and PROGRESSIVE, you when the people and vote.  Marty Reyes never stood a chance in that race (she's better off running for Precinct Chair). Who gives a flying flip who she's related to, she was just a pebble on the campaign trail.  It's very hard to read that Norma Chavez just comes home and waves her farmworker flag, when in fact she fought hard for the farmworkers, along side Cesar Chavez himself.  If you don't know the roots of Norma Chavez, don't write stupidities about her.

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by: txpapi915 @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 21:09:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haggerty isnt as Republicanly strong as you think (0.00 / 0)

His district is very swing (with a 53% DPI), much more than his brother's commissioners spot (49.9% DPI), but you're right, we (El Paso) love the guy, he even shows up to Democratic events once in a while.  I will tell you a funny story about how much Haggery is one of those old moderate Republicans you dont see anymore.  In 2003, because the College Republican president was a guest (or punishment by one of our friends) to our University Democratic banquet, he gave us seats to their poorly attended banquet.  Rep. Haggerty was a speaker there, and he kept saying the state is doing nothing to fund mental health, and we need to fund more.  The only applause he was getting was myself and my UD secretary.  Yup, he votes on Redistricting, but he knows a bad bill and will vote for El Paso.  It will take the Republican side to kick him out. 

His brother on the other hand, (Dan), who sits on commissioner's court really needs to go out.  If you want to see a far righter, Dan is a good example.  At a forum against our Democratic candidate, he told a non profit (who was helping flood victims) that receives funding from the county straight out "I'm not voting to fund you because the county shouldn't be paying for that service." He votes NO on everything.  Dan only lost with a 500 vote margin, so that's the Haggerty El Paso should focus on again. That's my plan for 2010. 

As for Norma, you can read the bills she's passed and my opinion about her here http://www.burntoran...
You all have some truth, she's not the most loyal Dem in the house, but she gets stuff done in the district and that's why she gets re-elected by 70%.  Also, with some conversations with Miss Chavez, I dont think she's planning a countywide race anytime soon, but then again, she does ride a motorcycle, so who knows.

And Texas Nate, we are in no way the New Orleans of Texas.  Our city and state officials (namely our senator) got the work done in a timely matter.  There are still some few kinks, some final approvals, and some families and businesses still waiting for some checks, but we were able to clean up very quickly. That's what happens when you have some good Dems in your city council. You can read Carmelita's article on Texas Kaos about it all.

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by: michaelapodaca @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 22:00:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Haggerty and Flooding (0.00 / 0)

Haggerty's district was hard-hit by the flooding.  The City, more so than the State or Feds, has been responsive.  The City is buying out the homes of homeowners who suffered total losses.  They're paying for it with funds from the city budget and FEMA funds, although the amount of FEMA payments have been anemic (Thank you, Gee W.). 

Haggerty hasn't been really visible on the issue, but hasn't been blamed for anything, either.

In addition to the property damage, for which the state and city have been helpful, the main problem was mosquitoes in the aftermath.  Another City/County problem.  The City/County Health Director was fired as a result, the City/County Health District was audited by One Tough Grandma, and the new Director is implementing changes under the supervision of the City Council.

Again, Haggerty's not been visible in any of this, but he's not being blamed, either.  The EP County delegation was fairly united in their efforts to get us some relief.

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by: carmelita @ Thu Jan 11, 2007 at 17:40:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

John Davis HD-129 (0.00 / 0)

Two things:
2006 was the first time he's had a challenger and the results were 57.69% Davis, 42.31% Matula. Matula overperformed in this (seemingly) solidly red district that performs closer to 65-35 for other races.

Also, word is that Davis might run for State Senate in 11 (if Mike Jackson retires.)

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by: muse @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 14:27:25 PM UTC

Bohac, HD138 (0.00 / 0)

Dwayne Bohac's HD138 is about as purple as HDs 144 (Talton) and 133 (Murphy), and it's trending the right way. This will (damned well better be) one to watch next year.

FYI, in Harris County at least (and Fort Bend and Dallas, too), you really need to look at countywide candidate performances rather than statewides to get a feel for the true index. Countywides in Harris outperformed the statewides by three points on average.

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by: kuff @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 15:53:10 PM UTC

Goolsby (0.00 / 0)

Owes his victory to the gutter politics of Dallas County Republican Chairman Kenn George, who with the help of Goolsby's consultants, alleged that Harriet Miller was involved in voter fraud in their 2004 race. They got channel 11 to run this story as an exclusive two days after early vote started, and then preceded to run mailings, push polls and other tactics to bring out the straight ticket Republicans who probably would have sat at home. I think he also outspent her nearly 2-1. He had like 400k on hand in the October report.

HD102 probably still leans Republican because there are about 7 or 8 hardcore straight ticket Republican precincts, and nothing like that on the Democratic side. The apartment dwellers along the LBJ freeway don't turn out.

Still with all the money and dirty campaiging, Tony only received 52% and is vulnerable. People barely see him in the district, probably because the man has 6 houses.

If Tony retires, it would be a toss-up, depending on the Democrat. The GOP still has an institutional advantage in Far North Dallas, but the winds of change are blowing.

I think England, Murphy, Haggery, Cook, Zedler, Talton, Krusee, and hopefully Goolsby should all have top tier challenges. Shinoda ran a good campaign against Hartnett and will likely run again. We need to protect our new Reps Garcia, Pierson, Vaught, Cohen, Heflin, and Farias to go along with the WD40s.

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by: billytx @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 16:35:31 PM UTC

forgot to mention (0.00 / 0)

Tony has done a great job of masquerading as a pro public schools moderate suburban grandad, when he has a 18 year record of being the opposite. If he does run it will be tough to beat him, but maybe after 20 years, voters will say enough is enough.

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by: billytx @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 16:38:43 PM UTC

Get Hartnett! (0.00 / 0)

If I had realized what would happen on Tuesday would happen (Hartnett's amendment) I would've volunteered for Shinoda.  But I was deep in the HR 110 race.

Whoever knows Shinoda make sure he runs again! If not, get someone else that can win that district.

Mike Davis
Dallas Progress

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by: Dallas Progress @ Fri Jan 12, 2007 at 17:15:33 PM UTC

The Reason Hughes Was Unopposed... (0.00 / 0)

Have you seen the R numbers in Wood County? That's an awful district for mid-level races like state rep.

The only way a D could win it is if it was a D from Marshall/Harrison County with a ton of money...then maybe. 

Vince Leibowitz

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by: Vince Leibowitz @ Tue Jan 16, 2007 at 22:49:32 PM UTC