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HD-29: Prediction Attempt; Probably Wrong (but actually not after all)


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Tue Dec 19, 2006 at 09:19 PM CST


I've run a table of numbers in an attempt to try to predict how the last results could end up. Of course, given that the final half of Brazoria is not likely to be *exactly* the same as the first half, this can easily be off. But I have nothing else to report so here goes.

If Brazoria comes in at the same levels and percentages, this is what the following would be.

(D) DiNovo  1641  22.8%
(R) Gorman  126  1.8%
(R) O'Day  3528  49.0%
(R) Weber  1900  26.4%

Total voters: 7195

If that were true, we'd be looking at a runoff but between two Republicans. Now, It is my gut feeling that the remaining boxes are from Pearland where there are more votes and turnout was heavier. This prediction only gets us to 7200 voters which I believe is lower than the total that will be there.

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Looks like all the boxes are in (0.00 / 0)
O'Day and Weber are going to a run-off.

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