TX-23: What We Face

not quite. (5.00 / 1)

Having volunteered with the Ciro Rodriguez campaign, I have to say that the SA express piece really misses the mark on this race.  The basic idea, that we won't give any money to Rodriguez becuase all he does is knock on doors and his wife runs his campaign misses the big point: the Rodriguez operation is homegrown becuase large organizations like the DCCC aren't helping out.  I bet Mrs. Rodriguez would prefer someone else to be fulltime campaign manager, but no one works for what she makes.

Money is important, but money, also, didn't determine this one.  Consider the numbers.  Bonilla didn't break 50%, and he dramtically worse in red counties like Medina, Val Verde, and Uvalde.  The last FEC report of 10/18 shows him having spent 2.5 Million.  Gilliland spent almost a million, and managed to finish at 11.1%.

Here's the task.  Assuming that Rodriguez picked up the votes of everyone who ran against Bonilla, and that Bonilla and Rodriguez both experienced similar % drops in voter turn out, Rodriguez would win run-off (Bonilla had 60147 to the rest of fields 63602).

Assuming that what Ciro Rodriguez turns out is closer to the combined votes of Rodriguez, Gilliland, Uresti, Bonilla wins.  (Bonilla 60147 to Rodriguez/Gilliland/Uresti total of 52847).

I'm with Musselman.  A win in December is possible, and in fact, probable, but only if people can commit to this race.

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by: Emiliano @ Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 23:59:33 PM UTC

A message from David Van Os (3.67 / 3)

Sent to his supporters early this morning:

All the recent statewide candidates are coming together to join Barbara Radnofsky as co-hosts of a luncheon fundraiser for Ciro Rodriguez in Houston on Monday (November 20, details to follow). We are all standing together to demonstrate our determination that the Democratic community must come together and go all out for this opportunity to get rid of Henry Bonilla and replace him with a true representative of the people, Ciro Rodriguez.

Further, tonight at the Bexar County Democratic Executive Committee meeting, the noble brother of us all, John Courage, publicly donated $2,000 to Ciro's campaign.

The Texas Democratic Party, to no surprise, is dragging its feet. But we statewide candidates are plenty used to that because we all experienced the TDP's inertia over the past year. So we are not waiting around for the TDP and I encourage all of you to join us and make Ciro's campaign your #1 political priority for the next month. Please right now set aside the runoff election day, December 12, as a day that you are going to be in the 23rd congressional district knocking on doors all day getting the Democratic vote out. Go to Ciro's website and contact the campaign to find out the other different ways you can help. Also please call and write the State Party Chair, Boyd Richie, and insist that the large paid staff in the party office all be sent out to the field in the 23rd to help win this election behind our candidate, Ciro Rodriguez.

In my recent race for Texas Attorney General the voters honored me by giving me majorities in some of the rural west Texas counties that are in the new district with which Ciro is not familiar. I am fortunate to enjoy some good support networks in those counties and I have offered to travel to the area with Ciro and introduce him to my supporters and ask them to exert maximum effort to get out the votes for his candidacy. Ciro's campaign manager accepted my offer on the spot at the Bexar County CEC meeting tonight. I look forward to doing whatever I can to help pull this one out. I believe that other recent statewide candidates are going to do so also. Several of us will be with Ciro Monday at the Houston fundraiser and will be discussing plans with him and his campaign manager for campaigning for him.

The parts of southwest and west Texas that are in the reconfigured 23rd are Democratic country. Henry Bonilla has been lying his way into people's votes for much too long. Ya basta!

DVO

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by: PDiddie @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 12:07:38 PM UTC

DVO is a Texas hero! (0.00 / 0)

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by: SouthTexasDemocrat @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 12:57:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Runoff date not yet set (3.00 / 2)

I'll be helping on election day for sure, but I just called the Secretary of State's office since they didn't have the runoff date posted to their web site, and they say the date has not been scheduled.  So before you ask for Dec the 12th off, let's keep checking with them.  It may be the 19th instead since they usually have to give at least 30 days notice.

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by: sonia @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 15:06:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

LFT is headed to S.A. (5.00 / 2)

we've been in that part of Bexar multiple, multiple times and a host of people who want to take Bonilla out are joining us... we haven't finalized our plans yet, but check our calendar and come with us.

http://www.latinosfo...

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by: cv172 @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 15:43:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That's the spirit! (5.00 / 1)

Tuesday 11.21.2006
Latinos for Texas Meetup
All are welcome.
Kerbey Lane
2606 Guadalupe St
Austin, TX
7:00 p.m.

Let's put together our plan to help Democrat Ciro Rodriguez beat Republican Henry Bonilla.

Event reminder sign up

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by: sonia @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 16:39:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Some Sugar (5.00 / 1)

I sent Ciro a check last night.  I think the 23 might be the most critical district for building a party in Texas.

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by: blank @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 12:37:02 PM UTC

Video of Bonilla (0.00 / 0)

Karl--This is what we face.

By the way, does any one know how to put this video in a post?  If so, could you explain it to me?  My guess is that I would have to go through youtube.  I am just not tech savvy enough.

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by: blank @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 13:50:32 PM UTC

So let me get this straight... (4.00 / 2)

We have a newly redrawn district in this blood-red state, where an R incumbent drew less than 50% against 6 Dems who put together a plurality in a special election, and the DCCC IS NOT SURE they should put money into the runoff? Because Ciro's campaign is TOO GRASSROOTS?
All the evidence you need to see how out of touch the DLC fools are. Emmanuel's strategy was by and large a failure, while grassroots Dems not connected with party establishment turned miracles and made this a watershed election. To hell with the carpetbagger DCCC and their money; they wasted millions on races that were complete flops, mainly because constituents saw the DLC's fingerprints all over their candidate. I say let's go all in with DVO and B-Rad and get Ciro and his campaign over the hump.

3 more flips next cycle and we'll be even in the House delegation! Onward to a progressive Texas!

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by: SouthsideSmoke @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 15:05:59 PM UTC

yup (0.00 / 0)

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 16:38:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well, actually... (0.00 / 0)

If we want to get "facts" correct, the DCCC is deciding if they want to give $$ directly to Ciro, or if they should do it all through independent expenditures.

Having worked with folks that tried to do direct mail through Ciro, I can say that the independent expenditure route is probably the best way to go...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

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by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 16:43:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no (0.00 / 0)

ya think?

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Thu Nov 16, 2006 at 02:37:28 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This district is winnable (5.00 / 2)

I supported Lukin in the November election, and it's fairly obvious now that Lukin may have picked the wrong district.  His family has lived in Alamo Heights for generations, and he has a huge supporter network in Northwest San Antonio.  But none of those folks could vote for Lukin, and it was simply too much of an uphill climb for Lukin to overcome Ciro's huge name ID in just 2 short months.

But we should all be glad Lukin tossed his hat in the ring.  He never said one negative thing about any of the other Dems.  Some pundits have suggested that Lukin could have beaten Ciro if he had gone negative against his fellow Dem, but Lukin took the high road and instead used his resources to directly attack Bonilla through TV, radio and mail.  It's safe to say that Lukin's focused attacks on Bonilla dropped the incumbent by a couple of points, and let's not forget that Bonilla only missed the runoff by a couple of points. 

For the runoff, Lukin has generously offered his north SA office to Ciro for free.  This office is conveniently located just 10-15 minutes from the SA airport, so if anybody wants to fly in and help Ciro during Early Vote weekend (could be the first weekend of December), then come on down.  Since voter turnout will naturally drop off in a runoff (and unfortunately our side will suffer the biggest turnout dropoff), we should all join together on Early Vote weekend and raise some hell. 

KT is right that this district is winnable, and it'd be nice to win it now instead of waiting until 2008.  Bonilla thinks he's already won this booger, so let's give him a little surprise.

Even though I supported Lukin, I thoroughly enjoyed watching Ciro campaign.  He was the best candidate on the stump, and he's truly a man of the people. If he wins this seat, he'll keep TX-23 in the Democratic column for a generation.  This will in turn help down ballot Dems and nurture our farm system in Bexar County and West Texas.  And this will in turn help future statewide Dems who need to rely on already-established Democratic networks.

Ciro can win this.  The only question is how hard will we work on behalf of Ciro.  Bonilla is corrupt, and he's an easy pinata.  Let's take a whack at him in 2006, and if we come up short, then we'll be better prepared for 2008.

Dirty Henry's days are numbered.

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by: Ian @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 18:16:36 PM UTC

A North Texas view of TX-23 (0.00 / 0)

I am watching the Ciro Rodriguez campaign with interest. 

I spoke with him in Boston about the Texas redistricting situation, as well as one of those gnawing questions that should have been asked of his opponent in a previous race.  This is the matter of Rick Perry's former Secretary of State, Henry Cuellar who resigned abruptly from that office.  Inquiring minds wanted to know why. 

I'm a long way from the 23rd CD, but if Rodriguez campaign feels it needs advice from Dallas County, the former home of Bush and Cheney where we did rather well for Democrats in our local races, they should know where they can find us.

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by: Tom Blackwell @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 19:29:31 PM UTC

Invitation to Monday's luncheon in Houston (3.00 / 3)

along with the following preface:

Congressman Ciro Rodriguez needs our help in his runoff against incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla. Democratic voters on November 7th in the 23rd Congressional District comprised more than 50% of the vote. Please help Barbara Ann raise needed funds for Ciro?s December runoff and convey this invitation to your list.

Even if you cannot attend, send your donation to www.cirodrodriguez.com or to P.O. Box 14528 San Antonio, Texas 78214. Or, come to Barbara Ann?s house Monday and hand it to him in person while you shake Congressman Lampson?s hand.

Barbara Ann Radnofsky

Invites you to

a fundraising reception

Honoring

Ciro D. Rodriguez

2006 Democratic Nominee for US Congress 23rd Congressional District

With Special Guest

Congressman Nick Lampson

&

Honorary Hosts

Chris Bell, Maria Luisa Alvarado, David Van Os, Fred Head, Hank Gilbert,
William Moody, and Richard Morrison

Monday, November 20, 2006
11:30 a.m. ? 1:00 p.m.

303 Timber Terrace

Houston, TX 77024

Contribution Levels:

Sponsor $2,100 ? Host $1,500

Co Host $1,000 - Guest $500- Ticket $200

Please respond to Katie Floyd at katie.floyd@radnofsky.com

Contributions or gifts to Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress Committee are not tax deductible.

Checks may be made payable to ?Ciro D. Rodriguez for Congress Committee? P.O. Box14528, San Antonio , TX 78214. You may contribute online at www.cirodrodriguez.com. No corporate checks please.

Paid for by Radnofsky U.S. Senate Committee, Inc.

Federal Law requires us to use our best efforts to collect and report the name, mailing address, occupation and name of employer of individuals whose contributions exceed $200 per election cycle.

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by: PDiddie @ Wed Nov 15, 2006 at 23:15:20 PM UTC