| Even though I've lived in Austin non-stop for the last 3 and a half years, Fredericksburg out in the Hill Country's Gillespie County will always be home. And since it's been months since I've entertained you with my obsession of political reports on things in Fredericksburg, here's an update.
Early voting as of Tuesday was 2,369 out of 16,816 registered voters (14% turnout). Total Early voters in 2002 was 2,735.
Gillespie traditionally has had about 35% vote early in federal elections (50% in my dad's city council election which was an oddity but the first time we pushed for early vote). I'd expect 40% cast early there this year at best which would mean a total vote of 10,075 with 60% turnout if I use the same scaled factor for Gillespie turnout on W-Th-F that Travis has.
That's higher than normal. There were 7,918 votes cast in 2002 in Gillespie total. That would be a 27% increase in raw votes.
So what would be driving it? A small part of it is population growth. In that county, I'm sure there is a higher than average Kinky effect simply because it's right next door to Kerr (his home turf if you can say he has any left). There is a proposed TTC corridor but it barely nicks the southwestern edge of the county. There are no contested county races and it is one of the few counties in Texas that has no major party challenge on the Congressional, State Senate, and State House level (though write-in candidate Daniel Boone to whom I have donated is gunning against James Leininger Nathan Macias).
Either I'm greatly undercounting Friedman activity in Gillespie County (possible) or people are very motivated to vote there for other reasons. The only thing I can think of, and my best gut feeling, is Republican leaning traditional and drop-off voters are coming out to the polls to send a message. I'm just not sure what that message is yet. Hopefully, it's a rural revolt. |
