| But how do we maximize this vote? I read an interesting article that suggests we may need to work to get out the college vote if we hope that it will have any measurable effect:
Republican pollster Mike Baselice, probably the state's preeminent political number cruncher, has examined the results of the last mid-term election backward and forward. In case you've forgotten, that was the 2002 campaign in which Democratic gubernatorial nominee Tony Sanchez spent millions to drive up turnout.
According to his research, Baselice said Texans between the ages of 18 and 29 made up 19 percent of registered voters, but only 5 percent of the 2002 turnout. He said that means Friedman could double that number to 10 percent and it still would have minimal impact on the overall numbers.
"(Friedman) is playing on a battlefield where the chances are so slim," said Baselice, who is doing polling for Perry. "Things don't change that drastically overnight."
I know that many might be inclined to discount Baselice's analysis because he's Perry's pollster, but Baselice is very vain about his accuracy record (which he is rightly proud of) and doesn't throw out statements like this without good data to support those statements. This analysis is a fair prediction of what will happen with the college vote unless we take action now and for the next weeks.
Another factor which makes me suspect that we need to work on the college vote is that Kinky was supposedly registering new voters, and it appears that Kinky failed miserably at this task. The preliminary reports from around the state indicate that new voter registration was up only slightly and not as high as in past years.
One hopeful note from the newly registered voters, however, is the early indication that Hispanic voters appear to have registered as new voteres at a higher rate than others, which suggests that the pro-immigration marches may have yielded some new voters with working class values.
So with the Daily Texan doing its best to turn the election into a fraternity prank, what can we do to get out the college vote? |
