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Polls show Bell breaking out of the pack; Kinky just a spoiler; Strayhorn falling


by: stopkinky

Sat Oct 21, 2006 at 04:29 PM CDT


In the only two polls conducted after the gubernatorial candidates' debate, Bell is in second place emerging as the only challenger who has a chance of beating Perry.  Both polls confirm that Kinky is nothing but a spoiler bottoming out in the polls more than 10% below Bell.

Wall Street Journal (an internet based poll using a methodology that may oversample pro-technology voters, but the poll is weighted to match the race, age, economic profile, education profile, and party affiliation splits corresponding with the splits from the latest exit polls from comparable elections in Texas):

37.5% - Rick Perry
26.2% - Chris Bell
13.2% - Richard Friedman
13.0% - Carole Strayhorn

Texans for Insurance Reform (a land-line telephone based poll using a methodology that may undersample younger, pro-technology, economically disadvantaged voters, and the poll is weighted to match the polling population to the assumption that 40% of the voters will be Republicans, 30% will be Democrats, and 30% will be independents - this poll is conducted by an independent polling firm but it is financed by Strayhorn supporters):

34.4% - Rick Perry
18.7% - Chris Bell
18.5% - Carole Strayhorn
_8.6% - Richard Friedman

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Notwithstanding these polls, some Kinky supporters remain reluctant to accept that Kinky cannot possibly win.

To those stubborn Kinky supporters, I say vote for him of not, as you decide, but don't delude yourself with the fantasy that Kinky stands a fraction of a chance of finishing even as high as second, let alone any conceivable chance of beating Perry.

Kinky wins a certain pro-pot, pro-animal rights segment of the typical Democratic voters who place a lower priority on immigration, reproductive freedoms, peace, racial equality, and beating Perry as compared to their concern for animal rights or legalizing pot.  That's everyone prerogative to support the candidate who best reflects their values, but I wish those people wouldn't delude themselves with the phony notion that Kinky is anything other than an entertainer who has right-wing views on more issues than not.

Kinky actually relishes his role as spoiler, and Kinky is not bothered by boosting Perry into office because

Kinky ran for office in the past as a Republican
Kinky voted for Bush/Cheney in '04
Kinky says Bush handled his Mid East policy well
Kinky says Bush is an "honorable cowboy"
Kinky has made numerous recent racially offensive statements
Kinky has suggested that anti-war Democrats are anti-American
Kinky lied about voting for Gore/Lieberman in '00
Kinky lied about voting for Ann Richards in '94
Kinky lied about voting against the gay marriage ban
Kinky's immigration policy is right of Perry's
Kinky's school prayer policy is right of Perry's
Kinky's abortion policy is right of Perry's
Kinky's equal access to college policy is right of Perry's

I could go on, but that should be enough background to confirm that Kinky is really nothing more than a pro-pot, pro-animal rights Republican.  You can call him an independent if you want; it makes no difference to me - I vote for candidates based on the policies they support and not based on party affiliation.

Please do not mistake my focus on Kinky as a silent endorsement of Strayhorn.  With respect to Strayhorn, even the polling of her supporters at Texans for Insurance Reform show her falling back to third place with significant downward momentum (the Wall Street Journal has her in fourth place, more than 13% behind Bell and barely behind Friedman).

Not only is it clear that Strayhorn cannot win, the more important fact is that Strayhorn is a political opportunist with no core values.  Here is a summary of her waivering positions on important issues:

# Political party switches - In 1985, she said "I have been a lifelong Democrat, but I'm going to spend the rest of my life vigorously and wholeheartedly in the GOP."  Now she says, "I am a Republican. But I know I must set partisan politics aside and do what's right for Texas. That is why I am running for governor as an independent."

# Toll roads - In 2000, Strayhorn said, in a review of the Texas Department of Transportation recommended toll roads, "Building highways through toll financing rather than pay-as-you-go financing dramatically speeds the time it takes to complete a given project." Now she says "I am adamantly opposed to this massive toll plan," Strayhorn said. "Rick Perry calls it Trans-Texas Corridor. I call it Trans-Texas Catastrophe, and as governor, I will blast it off the bureaucratic books."

# Private school vouchers - Strayhorn won election as comptroller in 1998 with the help of a $950,000 loan from voucher advocate James Leininger. Strayhorn said she supported vouchers as a means of giving parents a choice when their children were trapped in failing schools.  9 months ago, she said "When I've talked about vouchers; philosophically I wouldn't have a problem with that for disadvantaged kids."  Now she says, "I'm not saying I would never support them. I'm saying that I would take vouchers off the table for discussion. No more talk until we address the needs of public schools."

# Abortion - in 1985 "She refused to discuss her position on abortion" (Austin American-Statesman) and "She has been pro-choice on abortion, although she now says she opposes abortion personally and would rule out tax dollars for its practice, except in cases of rape incest or where the mother's life is threatened." (Christian Science Monitor).  But in the 1990s she signed pledges for the Republican National Coalition for Life to oppose abortion and told Greater Austin Right to Life that she supported overturning the Supreme Court decision allowing abortions.  Now she says "I have made my position very clear. As a mama and a grandmama, I believe in the sanctity of life, but I understand that there are those heartbreaking situations where heartbreaking decisions have to be made."

# Redistricting - As a member of the Legislative Redistricting Board, Strayhorn in 2001 cast the deciding vote to re-draw Texas House districts to reward Republicans and punish Democrats. In 2002, with corporate campaign funding help engineered by then-U.S. House Majority Leader Tom DeLay, the GOP took over the House, installed Tom Craddick of Midland as Speaker, and with direction from DeLay and help from Perry, re-drew Texas' congressional district lines to kill off half a dozen Democrats with decades of seniority. Now she says partisanship is killing Texas.

# Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) - Called for cutting CHIP spending in 2003, by requiring registration every six instead of 12 months. But in 2004, she blamed Perry's tight-fistedness for a large drop in enrollment. "It's time to put children first," Strayhorn said. "It's unconscionable that we're dead last in percent of children on health insurance."

# Tuition Deregulation - Strayhorn called for it in 2003, but nine months later said a student's tuition rate should be frozen at what they paid as a freshman.

# TAKS Test - She endorsed grade advancement based on testing in 1998. But a few weeks ago, she said she would "scale back the importance of the state's standardized TAKS test."

Finally, there is Perry.  The most recent SurveyUSA approval ratings show Perry in freefall, generally and across many democraphic groups:

Among all Texas voters: 54% disapprove, 40% approve
Among male Texas voters: 54% disapprove, 40% approve
Among female Texas voters: 54% disapprove, 40% approve
Among 18-34 Texas voters: 58% disapprove, 33% approve
Among white Texas voters: 59% disapprove, 38% approve
Among independent Texas voters: 63% disapprove, 33% approve
Among moderate Texas voters: 62% disapprove, 35% approve
Among liberal Texas voters: 78% disapprove, 22% approve
Among North Texas voters: 61% disapprove, 32% approve
Among West Texas voters: 55% disapprove, 40% approve
Among Harris County Texas voters: 57% disapprove, 35% approve

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I have to keep commending you, stopkinky (0.00 / 0)
For single handedly keeping the stinky news on Kinky front and center.  You do us an incredible service.  I applaud you!

Comprehensive as ever (0.00 / 0)
Thanks, stopkinky!

Disclosure: Former Political Director for Lee Leffingwell for Mayor of Austin ('09)

New SurveyUSA poll confirms Bell's big momentum (3.00 / 1)
Just as early voting begins, the new SurveyUSA poll is coming out, and it confirms the two other post-debate polls:  Chris Bell is the only candidate to emerge from the pack of challengers to have any chance of beating Perry.

36% - Rick Perry
26% - Chris Bell
19% - Carole Strayhorn
16% - Richard Friedman

Chris Bell is also the only candidate with consistent upward momentum (Strayhorn and Perry wobble up and down and Kinky has a consistent downward trajectory).

The rest of the good news is in a separate journal entry.


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