| For reference, here's the map:
Kelly v. Hutchison produced these results:
Statewide: 65/32 KBH
East Texas: 65/34 KBH
Houston: 62/36 KBH
Central Texas: 71/28 KBH
North Texas: 75/22 KBH
Southeast Texas: 67/31 KBH
Dallas/Fort Worth: 63/35 KBH
Travis/Bexar Corridor: 61/33 KBH
The Rio Grande Valley: 50/47 Kelly
West Texas: 78/21 KBH
Gene Kelly won 17 of 254 Counties in 2000.
Those 17: El Paso, Reeves, Presidio, Maverick, Zavala, Dimmit, Frio, La Salle, Zapata, Starr, Jim Hogg, Duval, Jim Wells, Brooks, Hidalgo, Willacy, Newton.
How about Mauro/Bush?:
Statewide: 68/31 Bush
East Texas: 65/35 Bush
Houston: 67/32 Bush
Central Texas: 71/29 Bush
North Texas: 77/23 Bush
Southeast Texas: 70/29 Bush
D/FW: 67/33 Bush
Tra-Bex Corridor: 66/34 Bush
The Rio Grande Valley: 51/48 Bush
West Texas: 79/21 Bush
Mauro won 16 of 254 counties.
Those Counties: Reeves, Presidio, Maverick, Foard, Delta, Zavala, Dimmit, Webb, Zapata, Jim Hogg, Starr, La Salle, Duval, Jim Wells, Brooks.
Due to the huge split, it is very likely that Bell will win more than 17 counties.
But, there wasn't as much of a competition for the Kelly and Mauro votes as there is for the potential Bell base.
In order to win, or come close, Bell has to bring together the Kerry voters, along with some others to make up for losses.
The more optimistic idea is to bring out more about him that would appeal to those voters. After all, there's a counter-message to just saying "He's a Democrat, vote for him".
Basically there's a lot of people who don't like Perry and Bush. And there's around 38% of them who voted for John Kerry, despite the lack of a chance that Kerry could win Texas.
This time around, 38% could be enough to win (especially if Kinky and Carole don't totally melt down).
And focusing a bit more on the areas where there was Kerry support is smart. He's probably doing that. Or at the very least, spending more time in Austin than he did in Denton.
Ann Richards got 46% in 1994, running above that average in Dallas/Fort Worth, Tra-Bex, and the Rio Grande Valley.
As noted, Mauro ran above his statewide average in East Texas, Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Tra-Bex, and the R.G. Valley.
Tony Sanchez ran above his statewide average in East Texas, Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Tra-Bex, and the R.G. Valley.
Kerry ran above that average in Houston, Dallas/Fort Worth, Tra-Bex, and the R.G. Valley.
Basically, there's a note on fertile targets.
East Texas: This area is probably going to be slightly better than average for Bell. As it typically is in non-federal elections.
Houston: This area is due to get bluer, as one of the old foundations of the 1970s-era Texas GOP moves to the left, or gets a lot of newcomers engaged in the process. Also, Bell being a Harris County resident is going to be very helpful.
Dallas/Fort Worth: This is the other old foundation of the 70s-era Texas GOP. Dallas County almost went for Kerry. And this is a very likely point for a Bell plurality victory.
Tra-Bex: Austin and San Antonio are blue pieces of bread, the rest are red meat. Bell has a good shot of getting a plurality here.
The Rio Grande Valley: This area is going to be underpolled. And the 7% it provides should include 60% or so for Bell.
And for reference, here's the regions where each candidate is from for this race, and others.
Governor: Austin for Perry (Austin by way of West Texas, of course), Bell is from Houston, Kinky lists Austin too (Austin by way of Kerr County), and Strayhorn lists Austin too. Bell is the only candidate with ballot access to not claim residence in Austin. In all reality, Perry has a West Texas base (which is crumbling). Kinky has a base amongst people who sincerely think that Pot can be legalized in Texas by 2010.
U.S. Senate: Dallas for KBH, Houston for Barbara Ann.
As for Down Ballot..
From Austin: Dewhurst, Alvarado, Abbott, Combs, Patterson, Jones
Not from Austin: Van Os (San Antonio), Fred Head (Athens, Henderson County), Hathcox (Sulphur Springs, Hopkins County), Staples (Palestine, Anderson County), Gilbert (Whitehouse, Smith County), Henry (South Lampasas, Lampasas County)
Summary: Office Holders claim Austin as a residence [Which is unusually honest], and 3 of the Democratic candidates are from East Texas. As is Staples.
As well, some county races could actually buoy Democratic turnout in various counties.
But basically.. the trip goes from Dallas to Austin to San Antonio to Laredo to Houston to Beaumont.
That looks like a good summary of the base for Bell. If the dots can be connected, he can get over 32% and he could claim a surprise victory.
It's all in the base. Ya know.
Any thoughts? |
