Splitting Texas 9 ways and the 2006 Gubernatorial Race

by: RBH

Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 02:17 PM CDT

North Texas: 31%
West Texas: 7%
Harris County: 15%
East Texas: 47%

Sure, there are some obvious questions, such as "When did Austin become East Texas?" or "When did Laredo become East Texas?".

So, let's look at a 9-way split of the state for a moment..

yes, I know the Austin/San Antonio one looks slightly obscene. And I know the West Texas one is also weird (because I had 10 regions, but I got rid of one because it had 2% of voters). But, let's look at the percentages for voting in 2004.

Houston Area (pink): 20% of all votes
Dallas/Fort Worth (green): 17%
Austin/San Antonio (pink): 14%
North Texas (skyblue): 11%
West Texas (orange): 9%
East Texas (orange): 8%
Central Texas (yellow): 7%
The Rio Grande Area (green): 7%
Southeast Texas (skyblue): 6%

And how did these areas split in 2004?

East Texas: 65/35 Bush
Houston: 58/42 Bush
Central Texas: 69/30 Bush
North Texas: 72/28 Bush
Southeast Texas: 66/34 Bush
D/FW: 56/44 Bush
Lower I-35 Corridor (Austin/San Antonio): 53/46 Bush
The Valley: 54/45 Kerry
West Texas: 77/22 Bush

Now, how about the 2002 Gubernatorial race?

East Texas: 58/40 Perry
Houston: 57/41 Perry
Central Texas: 65/33 Perry
North Texas: 70/28 Perry
Southeast Texas: 60/38 Perry
D/FW: 55/43 Perry
Austin/San Antonio: 53/43 Perry
The Valley: 68/30 Sanchez
West Texas: 70/28 Perry

The split in total votes was pretty much the same too.

Houston: 20%
D/FW: 17%
Austin/San Antonio: 14%
West Texas: 10%
North Texas: 10%
East Texas: 8%
Central Texas: 7%
Southeast Texas: 7%
The Valley: 7%

Now, the SurveyUSA numbers could indicate something of note there. Even if their geographic samples are screwy.

Let's compare their numbers for Perry, and for Bush's approval.

North Texas (31%): 31% Perry, 49% Bush approval

West Texas (7%): 44% Perry, 46% Bush approval

Harris County (15%): 28% Perry, 50% Bush approval

East Texas (47%): 38% Perry, 52% Bush approval

If you need to be reminded of where Perry lives, or about the samples, then too bad. ;)

In conclusion, here are my guesses on how the gubernatorial race could go in the 9 regions, in the event of a narrow Bell win.

East Texas: 40/25 Perry, 17 for Kinky, 16 for Carole
Houston: 35/32 Bell, 17 for Kinky, 14 for Carole
Central Texas: 42/28 Perry, 15 Kinky, 13 Carole
North Texas: 44/26 Perry, 15 Kinky, 12 Carole
Southeast Texas: 39/31 Perry, 16 Kinky, 12 Carole
Dallas/Fort Worth: 39/29 Bell, 17 Kinky, 12 Carole
Austin/San Antonio: 43/26 Bell, 15 Carole, 14 Kinky
Valley: 60/21 Bell, 10 Kinky, 7 Carole
West Texas: 46/22 Perry, 18 Kinky, 12 Carole

(the overall split would be 34/34, with 16 for Kinky, 13 for Carole)

So, how do those predictions sound?

Or are some of you still mad that your county is in the wrong region?