| The Burnt Orange Political Report (BOPR) is an analysis and prediction on the upcoming elections in Texas. We have looked at 207 races Texas voters will decide on this November 7, including all federal, statewide, state senate, and state house races. To learn more about the Burnt Orange Political Report, including the purpose and methodology of the project, you may read the Burnt Orange Political Report Explanation. (X-posted to kos, mydd, tk)
Burnt Orange Political Report: Overall Predictions
Former Congressman Nick Lampson's race in November will be the most closely watched race in Texas, and deseveredly so. Replacing indicted former Majority Leader Tom Delay will be a welcome sight for many Democrats in Texas and across the country.
We believe that Republican incumbents Henry Bonilla and Ron Paul may be surprised by their vote totals this Election day. If Chris Bell can't capture the hearts and minds of Democrats this November (and if Democrats aren't willing to open their hearts and minds to Bell in return), then we will likely see another sweep of the Republican statewide ticket. Any changes in the Texas Senate are extraordinarly unlikely.
Overall, we believe that Texas Democrats will have the strongest showing in Texas House races. We expect a four-to-six net pick-up this election cycle, and though it would be a surprise, we wouldn't be shocked to see more.
U.S. Senate and Congressional Races: Predictions
At the federal level, we believe Nick Lampson will soundly defeat Seukla-Gibbs in TX-22, giving Democrats a pick-up in Texas. Though the final numbers may show it to be a closer race than it ever really was, we have complete confidence that Congressman Chet Edwards will hold off Republican challenger Van Taylor in TX-17.
We're eager to learn more about the Democratic challenge to Republican Congressman Henry Bonilla, as a well-executed GOTV campaign could provide a terrifc upset. We're just not sure if there is one in place. Additionally, at least one of our senior writers remains thoroughly convinced that Shane Sklar, with more national attention and national dollars, could knock off Republican incumbent Ron Paul in TX-14 and provide Democrats nationwide with a surprise victory this November.
Many other Democrats are making excellent progress in strongly held Republican areas that have previously gone ignored. We applaude the efforts of such Democratic candidates as Mary Beth Harrell, Will Pryor, John Courage, Ted Ankrum, Robert Ricketts, Glenn Melancon, and of course, Barbara Ann Radnofsky. A perfect political storm could put any one of those candidates into office, and while we continue to work to make that possibility a reality, we also recognize the difficulty they will all face at the ballot box.
Statewide Races: Predictions
Democratic Gubernatorial candidate Chris Bell, whose campaign has gained significant momentum in recent weeks, still stands as the most credible threat to defeat Governor Perry. We firmly believe that if Democrats across Texas look to the issues, they will soon learn that Bell is likely the most progressive Democratic candidate for Governor they will see for some time.
However, if Democratic voters continue to cower until Election Day to show their support for Bell -- therein becoming the embodiment of the tepid Democratic Party many of those same voters have come to loathe over the past few years -- then Bell stands a tough chance at gaining enough momentum to carry him to the top and overtaking Perry. And despite what independent candidates Carole Strayhorn and Richard Friedman are selling, Chris Bell is the only candidate who stands a chance at defeating Perry on November 7.
While the potential is there for several surprises -- including Commissioner of Agriculture candidate Hank Gilbert, Attorney General candidate David Van Os, and Lieutenant Governor candidate Maria Luisa Alvarado -- at this point in the election cycle, a Democratic victory in any of those races would be an upset.
Texas Senate Races: Predictions
We don't expect anything to change in the Texas Senate, save the loss of Democratic Senator Armbrister. Though longtime political observer Paul Burka has described the battle between Democratic incumbent Senator Shapleigh and Republican challenger Donald Margo as "the biggest race" in Texas, we just don't see it happening. But we thought it at least warranted a mention.
In a different year with a bit more organization and without its more moderate Republican incumbent, SD25 would qualify as one of the few competative state senate races in Texas, and Kathi Thomas would be a great candidate to lead that change.
Texas House Races: Predictions
Currently, the best chance for Democratic victory is in the Texas House, where four of five "toss-up" races for this November are currently in Republican-incumbent districts. If Rep. Chuck Hopson can hold off his most formiddable Republican opponent to date, Larry Durrett, then we could easily see Democrats sweeping all five "toss-up" races, and gaining anywhere from four to six seats this November.
The race for former Speaker Pete Laney's seat provides the other diffucult hold seat for Democrats. Though we believe the edge would go towards Republican challenger Jim Landtroop if the election were today, the edge is not much thicker than a few hundred ballots. When all is said and done, we think this is the election that will turn the most heads on Election Day.
In the toss-up seats, we believe that Ellen Cohen and Paula Hightower Pierson both stand excellent shots at knocking out their Republican opponents, Rep. Martha Wong and Rep. Toby Goodman, respectively. In fact, one expert we talked to said that, within two weeks, both candidates may likely be considered favorites for the seats.
Embracing our spirit of fairness, we acknowledge that the race for the open HD-47 seat between Democrat Valinda Bolton and Republican Bill Welch remains a toss-up. Embracing our Austin-bias, we expect that Bolton will have a new job on Congress Avenue this January. And the same could very likely be said for Democrat Juan Garcia, whose youthful energy and excitement stands to overthrow the scandal-ridden Republican incumbent, Gene Seaman, in HD-32. |
