Final List of Re-Re-Districting Candidates

Hm (3.00 / 1)

it's probably a disappointment to Republicans that the guy that they nominated to face Hinojosa didn't actually file for this election.

And here's a fun summary of the list, with hometowns/home counties included

TX-21
Tommy Calvert (I-San Antonio, Bexar)
John Courage (D-San Antonio, Bexar)
Gene Kelly (D-Universal City, Bexar)
James Peterson (I-Austin, Travis)
Mark Rossano (I-Austin, Travis)
Lamar Smith (R-San Antonio, Bexar)
James Strohm (LP-Austin, Travis)

TX-23
Augie Beltran (D-San Antonio, Bexar)
Rick Bolanos (D-El Paso, El Paso)
Henry Bonilla (R-San Antonio, Bexar)
Adrian DeLeon (D-Carrizo Springs, Dimmit)
Lukin Gilliand (D-San Antonio, Bexar)
Ciro Rodriguez (D-San Antonio, Bexar)
Craig Stephens (I-San Antonio, Bexar)
Albert Uresti (D-San Antonio, Bexar)

So, which candidate is going to show up in the parts of the district that are between El Paso and San Antonio?

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by: RBH @ Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 23:33:02 PM UTC

Re: TX-28 (0.00 / 0)

Ron Avery filed with the SoS as a "Conservative", not Republican. So can he be counted as the GOP candidate, or as a third-partyer?

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by: Non-Texan @ Fri Aug 25, 2006 at 23:36:33 PM UTC

I think he could have filed as a Constitution Party member (0.00 / 0)

just a suspicion.

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by: RBH @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 00:43:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Paul Burka has two posts up about the 23rd (0.00 / 0)

This one, focusing on an already-out-of-date poll, and this one about Luke Gilliland, the late Democratic entry.

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by: PDiddie @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 04:07:54 AM UTC

Kelly Fero may like to throw the party under a bus... (0.00 / 0)

but the guy can sure run a campaign.  I can see Gilliland winning it if ciro dosent raise any dough.

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by: eric.heggie @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 08:38:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Gilliand could be useful for lowering Bonilla's percentage (3.00 / 1)

Here's Bonilla's 2002 and 2004 showings in each county that has stayed entirely in his district (IOW, no Bexar due to the blue shift there):

2002 (against Cuellar):

Brewster: 55% (1367 to 1039, 2466 votes)
Crockett: 66% (620 to 315, 945 votes)
Culberson: 46% (266 to 306, 580 votes)
Dimmit: 31% (775 to 1723, 2515 votes)
Edwards: 69% (475 to 206, 688 votes)
El Paso: 35% (858 to 1532, 2451 votes)
Hudspeth: 51% (331 to 310, 654 votes)
Jeff Davis: 68% (665 to 284, 974 votes)
Kinney: 72% (790 to 290, 1090 votes)
Maverick: 30% (1845 to 4298, 6200 votes)
Medina: 73% (7063 to 2447, 9660 votes)
Pecos: 60% (2256 to 1437, 3767 votes)
Presidio: 34% (465 to 893, 1381 votes)
Reeves: 45% (1106 to 1363, 2483 votes)
Sutton: 70% (731 to 290, 1037 votes)
Terrell: 52% (196 to 178, 379 votes)
Uvalde: 57% (3485 to 2576, 6110 votes)
Val Verde: 54% (4118 to 3403, 7589 votes)
Zavala: 24% (613 to 1908, 2534 votes)

2004 (against Joe Sullivan):

Brewster: 71% (2200 to 1363, 3622 votes)
Crockett: 78% (1264 to 303, 1628 votes)
Culberson: 62% (446 to 264, 721 votes)
Dimmit: 49% (1614 to 1586, 3280 votes)
Edwards: 83% (747 to 152, 901 votes)
El Paso: 45% (1764 to 2105, 3933 votes)
Hudspeth: 69% (508 to 216, 737 votes)
Jeff Davis: 76% (817 to 242, 1078 votes)
Kinney: 72% (1078 to 401, 1491 votes)
Maverick: 59% (5151 to 3363, 8662 votes)
Medina: 74% (10705 to 3689, 14555 votes)
Pecos: 72% (3094 to 1109, 4270 votes)
Presidio: 50% (837 to 806, 1664 votes)
Reeves: 60% (1932 to 1256, 3208 votes)
Sutton: 75% (631 to 196, 836 votes)
Terrell: 67% (287 to 141, 429 votes)
Uvalde: 67% (5530 to 2590, 8257 votes)
Val Verde: 68% (7838 to 3552, 11479 votes)
Zavala: 35% (1031 to 1861, 2920 votes)

Since 2004 is a best case scenario for Bonilla, don't expect him to win a majority in any of the counties he lost to Sullivan, or lost to Cuellar.

And here's a list of TX-23 counties that Bush didn't get 60% in:

Brewster (52.65), Culberson (51.64), Dimmit (33.31), Maverick (40.11), Presidio (37.83), Reeves (52.34), Val Verde (59.07), Zavala (24.91)

When it comes to deflating Bonilla's percentage, some candidate is going to have to go to Medina County and see what they could do there.

And the split means the Bexar vote will probably come out like this

30% for first place, 25% for second place, 20% for third place, 18% for fourth place

Gilliand could be useful if he can get votes from the people who vote for Bonilla and also vote for local Democrats.

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by: RBH @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 12:30:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

very interesting analysis (0.00 / 0)

thanks for these detailed voter turnout numbers. 

please keep posting anything else you might know about this district.  it apprears to be the biggest district in texas, and there must be lots of interesting sub-plots in all these different counties in between san antonio and el paso.

this definitely seems like a winnable district as long as our many candidates don't get bitter in this free-for-all.  hopefully, everyone will join together for this run-off.

bonilla's days are numbered.  let's take back texas 23!

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by: takebacktexas23 @ Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 16:08:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Adrian DeLeon was the fellow who (0.00 / 0)

came in third in the Lt. Governor Democratic primary in March, IIRC, behind Maria Luisa Alvarado and Ben Z. Grant.

If this is the same Frank Enriquez, then he has previously run for the 13th Court of Appeals.  From that bio (scroll down to bottom):

Enriquez, a Vietnam veteran with 20 years experience practicing law, argued a case in front of the U.S. Supreme Court. Enriquez said he wants to serve on the 13th Court of Appeals because it is one of the most respected courts in the state.

"Very few of their cases are reversed by the Supreme Court of Texas," Enriquez said.

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by: PDiddie @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 13:03:46 PM UTC

De Leon info from the March election (0.00 / 0)

He did win his home county (Dimmit) with 66% in the primary.

He also won Gray County. And nothing other than that.

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by: RBH @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 13:53:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Same Enriquez (5.00 / 1)

If this is the same Frank Enriquez, then he has previously run for the 13th Court of Appeals.

It's almost certainly the same person.  The Frank (or Francisco Javier) Enriquez who ran for the 13th Court of Appeals is a partner at Enriquez & Cantu, which is in McAllen and in  TX-28.  In 2004, he gave $1000 to Lloyd Doggett and $2000 to Leticia Hinojosa.  (He also gave $500 to John Edwards).  When he ran in 2000, he was 47 years old.  The Frank Enriguez who is running in TX-28 is also an attorney from McAllen and is now 53 years old.

Sounds like the same guy.

When he ran against Errlinda Castillo in 2000 Dem primary, he got 22,538 votes to her 13,203 in Hidalgo.

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by: blank @ Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 09:50:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lukin Gilliland is the favorite (0.00 / 0)

He has the profile, the resources, the team and the momentum in an anti-incumbent year.  Rodriguez is old news and the others are no news.

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by: BenBentzin'sBrain @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 15:14:49 PM UTC

An Anglo in a 61% Hispanic district? (0.00 / 0)

I don't think so. This is Texas, not California or New Mexico.

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by: Non-Texan @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 15:56:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lloyd Doggett? (3.00 / 1)

He's a proud anglo progressive representing a Hispanic district.  And he's one of the best congressman in the country in serving his constituents.

You're right.  This is Texas.  But that doesn't necessarily mean we can predict which nominee the district 23 voters will eventually select.  Ethnicity will be a big factor, but it won't be the only factor.

This is a wide open ball game.  We just need to make sure Bonilla doesn't get 50% in November.  As long as we can get one of our folks into the run-off, we can win this thing.

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by: takebacktexas23 @ Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 16:15:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wrong conclusion (0.00 / 0)

We will forgive Non-Texan for drawing the wrong conclusion since they aren't from here. This race has little to do with Hispanic vs. Anglo and much to do with Old vs. New.  If it was about Hispanics, we could just keep the one we have there now. 

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by: BenBentzin'sBrain @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 18:11:26 PM UTC

My point of view here is that (0.00 / 0)

Lukin is probably going to send this election to a runoff, but he may not be in that runoff.

Just because you have money doesn't mean you're automatically a contender. Hopefully he'll be able to make a good impression too.

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by: RBH @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 18:34:31 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Huh??? (0.00 / 0)

Ben seems to imply that a virtually unknown Anglo can transcend ethnic politics in a 61% Hispanic district.

Against a very well-known Hispanic incumbent with a couple million in the bank.

In a field with other qualified Hispanic Democratic candidates who are, at minimum, qualified.

In less than three months. 

That's interesting.

What's more, how will Lukin get even half of the Anglos when many of them -- probably a majority of them -- are solid Republicans?

I mean, really.  I like Lukin a lot and will support him, but did he get into this race without doing a poll?

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by: El Jefe @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 19:50:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not exactly (0.00 / 0)

There is a long list splitting the 'Hispanic name' vote and nobody with any money in the bank except Lukin and Bonilla. I'd say he has an excellent shot at making the runoff. In the runoff is where things get muddy, but there are probably a lot of white Republicans who would rather not vote for a Hispanic if they could help it.

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by: George @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 20:22:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lukin wins (0.00 / 0)

The answer to El Jefe's last question in "No."  You're supporting the winner, and George gives you part of of the reason why.

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by: BenBentzin'sBrain @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 22:13:33 PM UTC

let's just get this into a runoff... (5.00 / 1)

...and then elect the candidate who is the choice of Hispanic voters, and that will be the Democrat, whoever he is. That's why people spent years fighting for this opportunity.

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by: getreal @ Sat Aug 26, 2006 at 22:56:30 PM UTC

Title Error (3.00 / 1)

Matt--You have the title of the post wrong.  It's re-re-redistristricting.

2000 was redistricting.
2003 was re-redistricting.
2006 is re-re-redistricting.

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by: blank @ Sun Aug 27, 2006 at 08:48:45 AM UTC