A poll from a traditionally Republican-leaning pollster shows Wendy Davis down only 8 points to Greg Abbott.
The poll, by Rasmussen, shows Davis eating in to Abbott's lead.
The last Rasmussen poll had Abbott up 12%, and a poll released last month (with terrible methodology) had Abbott up 17%.
The results caused Rasmussen to upgrade the race to “Lean Republican” from “Safe Republican.”
Part of the reason why we're seeing these varied polls is because of who is sampled in them and how the voters are contacted. The YouGov poll that gave Abbott a 17% margin used an Internet panel, and most likely under-sampled minorities and low-income Texans.
Many of these polls — such as PPP Polling — also only sample “Likely” Voters, usually defined as voters who have cast a ballot in one or two previous November general elections.
That methodology fails to include new registrants who were inspired by Wendy Davis last summer, or the folks newly engaged by Battleground Texas.
This Rasmussen survey was a phone poll of Likely voters, so this 8 point margin also fails to include new registrants and people who may not have a good voting history.
You've heard it before but it bears repeating: Texas isn't a Republican state. It's a non-voting state.
Polls that show Wendy gaining ground among Likely voters is a tremendously positive sign given all of the work that is also being done to expand the Democratic electorate in Texas.
So while Wendy Davis may still be down, she's far from out of this race.