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Re-Re-Redistricting Decided


by: Karl-Thomas Musselman

Fri Aug 04, 2006 at 02:47 PM CDT


The courts have drawn the redistricting map. There will be an open primary on November 7th, with a December run-off for anyone who doesn't get a full 50% of the vote. Deadline to file in the new districts will be August 25th.

From the Statesman:

The panel reunited Webb County, which includes the majority-Hispanic city of Laredo, and placed it entirely in the 28th Congressional District, which is adjacent to the 23rd District. It added portions of Bexar County, which includes San Antonio, to the 23rd District.

The district stretches from Laredo to El Paso County and north to San Antonio. The high court ruled that the district boundaries drawn by Republican state legislators in 2003 diminish Hispanic voting power because a large cluster of Webb County Hispanics were divided into two different congressional districts.

The new plan also moves Kerr, Kendall, Bandera, and Real counties into the 21st Congressional District, represented by Republican Lamar Smith of San Antonio.

The 23rd District, represented by Republican U.S. Rep. Henry Bonilla of San Antonio, under the map the judges issued Friday, has a 61 percent Hispanic voting age population, compared with 51 percent under the Republican-led redistricting. It also now will be more evenly divided between Democratic and Republican voters.

Under the new plan, all incumbents would remain in their current districts.

Check out the interactive map at this site as map 1438 (Court Ordered Districts LULAC v. Perry). Here is a population and general election breakdown of the 5 districts that were changed. For reference, here are the 2002-2003 lines, after the regular redistricting, but before the Delay Redistricing which are the 2004-2005 lines.

Here are closeup maps of Travis County as well as Bexar County. White districts are the unaffected CD-10 (McCaul-R) and CD-20 (Gonzales-D).

District 21 & 23- Lamar Smith (R) & Henry Bonilla (R)

District 25- Lloyd Doggett (D)



District 28 & 15- Henry Cuellar (D) & Ruben Hinojosa


Instant thoughts on all this... Cuellar just became safe in his 28th District as all of his Laredo base is united. Hinojosa gets widened a bit as he picks up the leftovers in South Texas after Doggett was retracted north into Travis but I don't see him being affected much. Smith just became a safe seat in 21 as he shed the liberal precincts in Austin (minus the UT campus, dammit) as he picked up 75% Republican rural counties he used to represent.

Bonilla becomes a target as he picks up huge parts of Democratic South San Antonio as he loses some of the Republican Hill Country. Bexar County most recently was known as Ciro Rodriguez's base when he ran against Cuellar in the primary this spring. So does Ciro run against Bonilla? He's got to be thinking about it, but he's still in dept Bonilla has $2,243,274.54 on hand...  There is the current Democratic nominee Rick Bolanos, but he hasn't filed an FEC report to date.

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Check out this cool map made by the Lone Star Project.

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What happens to CD25 - Doggett's district? (0.00 / 0)
Any impact on that one?


This election cycle... (0.00 / 0)
just keeps on getting more and more interesting.  First, four candidates running for Governor, then Delay being forced to run for the 22nd, and now this.  What's next?  Someone please tell me?

I Hate Dallas Blog
"Every reasonable human being should be a moderate Socialist."- Thomas Mann


Dogget's district... (0.00 / 0)
has the two most active politically campuses in the state.

actually no (0.00 / 0)
the UT campus is still in 21 with Smith. Fuckers. The take North Campus and the eastern half of downtown and give it back to Doggett but leave the UT campus and West Campus in Smith's, along with the precinct with the capitol in it.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
north campus? (0.00 / 0)
Did any CD 10 precincts get given back to Lloyd? Is there a place to see precinct by precinct yet? I can't tell from this map what, if anything, happened to my neighborhood. I don't know if north of Hyde Park but south of Allandale is still considered "north caampus".

Hill Country Ride for AIDSmy HCRA Page

[ Parent ]
nope (0.00 / 0)
CD 10 was left untouched. But if you were in the north campus/hyde park part that was in CD 21 with Smith, you have now been moved into Dogget's district. Of course, campus and west capus and parts of downtown are all still in Smiths. Which sucks ass.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
Ugh. (0.00 / 0)
Be careful what you wish for :(

The other thing about this is that this is a open primary... (0.00 / 0)
so any number of dems or repubs could run for it.  Would someone challenge cuellar again in his new district?  Would someone challenge dogget?  Does Ciro run against bonilla?  Who has the most money of any campaigns in these areas?

Julian Castro Can Beat Bonilla (0.00 / 0)
Of all the Democrats in San Antonio, I think former councilmember and mayoral candidate Julian Castro has the best shot of beating Henry Bonilla.

He used to represent the northwestern parts of San Antonio that's been added to CD-23, and so the voters there know him well.  Julian still has the highest name recognition of Dems who could challenge Bonilla in the city, having polled 48 percent in the city-wide mayoral election...


[ Parent ]
You are the same guy as on KOS arent you... (0.00 / 0)
just created this username on here I see.  You gotta be working for him now.

[ Parent ]
Block-walked in 2005 (0.00 / 0)
I actually handed out flyers and knocked on doors for him with my brother in the mayor's race.  I sure hope he runs...

[ Parent ]
If (0.00 / 0)
If you actually do know more (or anyone does) go ahead and e-mail me.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
Courage is screwed (0.00 / 0)
Sorry folks, but Doggett getting what he wants has f__ked John Courage.

CD 21 is now a 65% Republican seat; even the Travis County portion is pretty conservative.

So Doggett's gain is Courage's loss.


Well ohh welll... (0.00 / 0)
thats life.

[ Parent ]
so let's get busy (4.33 / 3)
and put these true blue action tools to work and get John Courage elected

[ Parent ]
daunting indeed (0.00 / 0)
if he decides to stay in it, we got some work ahead. and, i have to admit i am glad i dont have to make that kind of call...


-my comments at BOR are mine, and do not represent anything official from LFT.

[ Parent ]
Let's not write off CD21 just yet (3.00 / 1)
Keep in mind that when they look at these numbers they are looking at old data too.  Things have changed and the country is not happy with the Congressional leadership.  Nobody said it was going to be easy before and it certainly got harder.  If John decides to stay in CD21 we have a much more organized campaign than he did 4 years ago.  I'm not giving up without a fight.  Don't write us off.

[ Parent ]
I'm not Sonia (0.00 / 0)
But it was hard before and it just got moved about about 5+ points. That's really hard to make up now and it lost the best parts of Travis County while picking up horrible Hill Country Counties. I know, I was in that old 2002 district with some of them in it. Sadly, I really do think Courage is mostly screwed here.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
Who else can take on Lamar? (2.00 / 1)
Are we going to let this seat go unchallenged?  This is no doubt a tougher district, but John has been in these counties before.  He campaigned there in 2002 in his first run, when the district was even worse.  So he has some name recognition, he has a campaign team in place and at least some seed money.  We obviously need a hell of a lot more in this district.

If he can get the support of people who already know him, I think he'll go for it.  I'm counting on the UT students to stand and fight with us.  Never give up and never surrender.


[ Parent ]
TX-21 (0.00 / 0)
There will be other Democrats running in the open election.

[ Parent ]
Who? (2.00 / 1)
John Courage has money in the bank, tons of contacts in the rural counties, and has become a netroots candidate on the national level. Who else would challenge him and if so are there enough people to keep Lamar Smith under 50%?

Read Just Another Blog

[ Parent ]
runoff (0.00 / 0)
Only hope is two candidates run v. Smith to keep under 50 and hope for lightning to strike in the runoff.
How much does Smith have in the bank? Courage?

[ Parent ]
I feel bad for John Courage (3.00 / 2)
But I couldn't be happier that I'm back in Dogget's district again. For people living in Austin to be represented by someone based in San Antonio is ridiculous. I moved back to Austin in 2000, and have lived in three different congressional districts in that six year span!

[ Parent ]
Incumbent protection? (0.00 / 0)
The court's protected Smith, Doggett, and presumedly Cuellar -- but it seems they hurt Bonilla. CD-23 just went from 62-38 Republican advantage to 53.7-46.3. He can't be as happy as he's pretending...

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

That being said (0.00 / 0)
I think Bonilla is fine for the fall. Two years from now is another story, though, if someone starts raising money today for that race.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

[ Parent ]
Well... (0.00 / 0)
I wouldn't count on Bonilla being fine.  If the right candidate, with the right DCCC connections got in, it'd be a HELL of a great race. 

[ Parent ]
current candidates (0.00 / 0)
While the money would have to be coming in from DCCC to a large degree, of the current candidates, Courage actually has the most on hand in the area. I'm not sure actually if Courage's house in San Antonio got moved to Bonilla's or not (don't think so) but I'll try to find out. I love Bolanos, met him in Val Verde county during the TDP chair race. But he hasn't filed an FEC report and I've heard nada.

Please read the Community Guidelines and How to Rate Comments.

[ Parent ]
if the DCCC found a candidate right now... (3.00 / 1)
setup a competent staff, and tossed 2.2 - 3 mil at the race.  It could be winnable this time around.

[ Parent ]
DCCC (0.00 / 0)
I've heard the DCCC has been thinking about putting 1.5 to 2 million in this race.

I think you're right--bonilla has about 2.3 mil, and with 2 million from DCCC, a candidate could raise enough to run ads and "hammer" bonilla on DeLay.


[ Parent ]
Biggest Point (0.00 / 0)
The Republicans went too far, and they got called on it. They've spent years trying to defend a map that violated the voting rights of Hispanics. The out-of-control Republican Leadership caters to folks like Tom Delay and James Leininger, and in the last two days, we've seen how well those two have done.

Now, a very great man once said that some people rob you with a fountain pen.

6 Months Ago (0.00 / 0)
Had this been the map 6 months ago Ciro and Bonilla would be in a dog fight and Richard Raymond might have targeted Cuellar in the primary.  It would be a fight for both of them today.

Ruling out Ray Raymond? (0.00 / 0)
Remember that Ray Raymond announced
a run against Cuellar and Ciro in the
recent primary, but then backed out.

Saved himself a lot of money and grief
with that strategic retreat. If he's
as smart otherwise, maybe he's smart
enough to take down Cuellar now.

Cuellar claims Laredo as his base.
When it came to finding uncounted
absentees and other missing ballots
when he needed them, Laredo worked
for him.

But Ray Raymond claims Laredo as his
base, too. He's been popular there,
winning re-election to the Texas lege
with nice numbers.

So I'm hoping Raymond will go for it
this time around, and not let Cuellar
get settled in. Seems like a good year
to go up against George Bush's very
own(ed) Hispanic Congressman.


[ Parent ]
Not Ruling It Out (0.00 / 0)
I'm not ruling it out.  Just saying that it would be very uphill.

[ Parent ]
Not so bad? (0.00 / 0)
Looks to me like we could have done
worse -- much worse.

The lines submitted by the Texas AG
took gerrymandering to another level,
attempting to take out Doggett but
protect Bonilla, Smith, and Cuellar.

But these districts make sense.

Laredo, which was so unfairly split,
now dominates a district. Doggett's
district looks fair, as well. Most
of the population now is within the
Austin-San Marcos Metropolitan Area,
and one TV market.

Back in the days of LBJ and Homer
Thornberry, Central Texas counties
like Gonzales, Bastrop, and Caldwell
(Lockhart, Luling) were full of
yellow dog Democrats. Of course,
those days are gone (Caldwell is
still blue) but there is a common
interest.

Hays County (San Marcos, Austin
suburbs) was split, now it is whole
again. Comal (New Braunfels, Canyon
Lake) was split, now it's whole.

Even the lines in Bexar County and
Travis seem somewhat less tortured.

Those (R) Hill Country counties
deserve Lamar Smith, and he them.
They had nothing in common with the
Border counties except for Bonilla.

Not a perfect plan, but pretty good
for us considering where we were
and could have been.

BTW That map from the Lone Star
Project is AWESOME! Everything
becomes clear with it.


OPEN PRIMARY? (0.00 / 0)
In this situation, does an open primary mean Independents and Republicans will also have a vote?
This would create a potential oppurtunity for sabotage.

actually (0.00 / 0)
its not so much an open primary as an open general election like the process that Louisiana uses.

[ Parent ]
so no (0.00 / 0)
worry for sabotage

[ Parent ]
Downtown this evening (0.00 / 0)
Around 6:30, I saw Jennifer Gale gathering signatures to run in CD-25.

She doesn't waste any time at all with those petitions, huh?


Red Viewer Site (0.00 / 0)
Seems like you used to be able to zoom in on that site (link in original post).  Anyone found a close up of Austin?

I found it (0.00 / 0)
I had to use Internet Explorer for the link to work. And I had to keep zooming in several times to get it close enough to tell. My precinct is RIGHT on the border of 21 and 25 now. Thankfully on the 25 side! It was so close that I couldn't tell from the close-up map printed in Saturday's Statesman.

http://gis1.tlc.stat...


[ Parent ]
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