In 2012, Texas gained four new congressional seats, signifying that our state is clearly the second most populated in the nation, behind only California. While we still do not know what the final shape of our congressional map will be when this decade ends, the annual US census update has some news for us for the 2020s.
In the next round of congressional reapportionment, set to occur in the 2022 election, Texas is currently projected to gain a 37th and 38th congressional seat.
However, in 2011, just after the 2010 census, Texas was projected to gain a 39th congressional seat in 2022 as well. While population growth in Texas may not have slowed, other states have picked up the pace to keep district 39 out of reach, for now. The overall trends of the last three years remain the same, with states from the northeast and midwest losing congressmen with those seats being reapportioned to the mid-Atlantic, south, and west.
It is too early to project what regions these new seats will be awarded to or if these seats will be created as minority opportunity seats under the now-crippled Voting Rights Act.
Take a look at all the projected congressional changes for 2022 after the jump.There are several ways to project how seats will be apportioned; I will be using the method compiled by Roll Call Politics and my friends at DailyKos Elections. I will also compare this to how each state was projected to change three years ago, just after the 2011 reapportionment.
|State||Current Congressmen||2022 Projection Today||2022 Projection in 2011|
As Roll Call points out, their 2003 projection had eight seats misappropriated compared to the final 2011 result, while their 2007 projection only had four misappropriated seats. We should expect several more changes in the appropriating of 2022's congressional seats between now and 2021 and not expect today's projections to be final and certain.
Visually, based on current projections, the 2022 is currently expected to yield these results:
See who is running for US Congress in Texas this year in our US Congress Candidate Tracker.
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