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Analysis of PPP/SEIU Poll Shows Obama and Romney Tied in Texas


by: Katherine Haenschen

Fri Jul 06, 2012 at 02:13 PM CDT


Worth sharing: DailyKos user dreaminonempty aggregated the Texas results of a national PPP survey on Obama vs Romney, and found that Texas respondents were tied:

Over the period of April 12 - July 1, 662 respondents to the Daily Kos/SEIU/PPP State of the Nation poll were reached at a Texas phone number.  Among these respondents, Obama and Romney were tied 47-47.  (Please note that this is an aggregation of interviews from the weekly poll, not a stand-alone poll.)

The two stand-alone polls from the same time period also show a relatively tight margin among registered voters.  Texas is a Tossup at least by New York Times standards, based on this result and the two other polls with Romney +7 and Romney +8, for an average of Romney +5.

The post goes on to state that while this is a poll of registered, not likely voters, and that we saw similar trends in 2008, our state isn't too likely to go Blue this cycle, but we've got strong potential.

Granted, Texas is an expensive state to campaign in given our sheer size, population, and number of costly media markets. But we've got great potential. One of the most pressing needs for Democrats here in Texas is to register and turn out our substantial Latino and African-American populations. Newly elected TDP Chairman Gilberto Hinojosa has shown a strong commitment to base mobilization, and these poll numbers should just reinforce the need to turn Texas into a competitive battleground, and eventually flip the state into the Blue column.

After all, when Texas goes Democratic again, it will be nearly impossible for the Republican party to elect a President ever again. That alone is a good reason to fight this fight, as far as I'm concerned.

What do you think? Will the Obama-Romney margin in Texas be narrower than 10 points?

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Likely voters (0.00 / 0)
I wonder what the score is once screened for likely voters.

John Woods

10 points? (0.00 / 0)
McCain only won by 12 last time. I'm optimistic we can get it in high single digits.  

awesome! (3.00 / 2)
So, no reason for Texans to work out of state for Obama, right? Let's turn those registered folks into likely voters with 3-5 touches between now and November and help all our downballot Dems in the bargain.  

Help down downballot Dems-sounds good. (0.00 / 0)
We really need to find some way of getting more of OUR base out to vote.  If not, Texas is condemned to many more years of rightwing GOP rule--with no healthcare exchanges, sorry schools, etc.  We've had enough of that already.

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