Lozano claims that the Republican "values" resonate more strongly with him, so clearly he supports slashing the budget, denying women basic healthcare, closing schools, firing teachers, and forcing his constituents to pay a poll tax in the form of requiring a Voter ID. After all, that's what the Republicans in the legislature are all about.
Why JM Lozano Will Lose
By Jeff Rotkoff
I met Mr. Lozano about six weeks before his 2010 primary election, and the first thing he told me then was how important he believed it was to defeat Democrats who get elected, come to Austin, and take orders from Republicans. This sentiment was his unprompted answer as to why he was running for the Texas House. Unfortunately for him, his decision to switch parties and run for re-election in 2012 as a Republican demonstrates that not only is he untrustworthy and unprincipled, but that he also posses downright terrible political judgement.
Past election results indicate that JM Lozano will likely lose to an Anglo Republican primary opponent:
As of this writing, Mr. Lozano faces at least one known Anglo Republican primary opponent. For an informative look as to how Latino Republicans fare against Anglo primary opponents in the new HD 43, the 2010 Victor Carrillo vs. David Porter race for Texas Railroad Commission is instructive. Carrillo was the incumbent and well-funded Railroad Commissioner. Porter was his unknown and unfunded primary opponent. After the primary election, Carrillo blamed his defeat on voters' reaction to his Hispanic surname.
The new HD 43
- Bee County -- Carrillo: 26.1% & Porter: 73.9%
- San Patricio County -- Carrillo: 16.1% & Porter 83.9%
- Jim Wells County -- Carrillo: 21% & Porter 76%
- Kleberg County -- Carrillo: 26.2% & Porter 73.8%
To say Porter trounced Carrillo in the new HD 43 would be an understatement. Add to that dynamic the fact that Lozano voted against key Republican priorities in 2011, including the Voter photo-ID bill and Governor Perry's centerpiece so-called "sanctuary cities" legislation, and it is clear Mr. Lozano will enter the Republican primary as an underdog against any Anglo opponent.
Past election results indicate that the Republican candidate will likely lose the 2012 general election in HD 43:
Even if Lozano is to somehow squeak out a primary win; or more likely, if Republican power-brokers in Austin are able to bully potential primary opponents out of the race, Mr. Lozano is running in a district that is, at best, a toss-up for him in a presidential election year.
It is clearly true that in 2008, President Obama lost HD 43. However, in every county in the district, down-ballot Democrats performed quite well.
- Bee County -- In 2008, President Obama received just under 47% of the vote in this county. That same year, Democratic Congressman Ruben Hinojosa took nearly 60% of the vote, and Democratic candidates for Railroad Commissioner, Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals all carried Bee County.
- San Patricio County -- President Obama received 41.3% of the vote. But despite that lackluster performance, the county was toss-up down ballot. Democratic candidates for State Senate, State House and State Board of Education all carried the county. Republican candidates for Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals won the county.
- Jim Wells County -- President Obama received 57.7% of the vote here. Every other Democratic statewide candidate received between 57% and 60+% of the vote.
- Kleberg County -- President Obama carried the county with 53.2% of the vote. U.S. Senate candidate Rick Noriega came in at 57.4%, and all statewide Democrats received between 57% and 60+%.
Little doubt can remain that county-by-county, there is a clear path to victory for a Democratic candidate in HD 43 in the 2012 presidential election. It is also clear that the decision by Mr. Lozano to leave the Democratic Party puts him square in the path to defeat -- either in the upcoming Republican primary, or in the November general election.