| At this point there have probably been more news articles written about the Iowa Caucus than there were caucus-goers supporting Mitt Romney. (Definitely more than voted for Jon Huntsman, amirite?) So rather than add to the pile, here's a round-up of some of the more interesting post-Iowa analysis.
First, up the social scientists. Over at Pew Research Center, there's a good post on "Six Small but Significant Iowa Indicators." They write:
Romney Gets 1% of "True Conservative" Voters. A quarter of Iowa caucus voters said the most important candidate quality was that they be a "true conservative." Among these voters, just 1% supported Romney; 37% backed Paul and 36% supported Santorum.
More Independents. Independents comprised nearly a quarter (23%) of GOP caucus voters, up from 13% four years ago. As was the case in 2008, roughly six-in-ten caucus voters were white evangelicals.
Republicans Split Their Votes. Three-quarters of caucus voters were Republicans and they split their votes almost evenly between Santorum (29%) and Romney (27%). Paul drew a sizable plurality (43%) among self-described independents.
The bad news for Romney (and good news for Obama!) is that he still can't land the right-wingers -- if he can't motivate the base, that's bad news for him come November, should he win the nomination. Clearly, if Romney is to be replaced with a "real" conservative, the splintered right wing voting bloc will have to unite behind a not-Mitt for good. Santorum's impressive caucus results may make him the most likely choice, except for, you know, that whole frothy fecal matter thing.
Over at Business Insider there's some interesting analysis suggesting that Ron Paul may actually have won the Iowa Caucuses. Why? He may have organized the most delegates. They report:
Paul's massive organizational push in Iowa focused on both winning votes, and also on making sure that Paul supporters stuck around after the vote to make sure they were selected as county delegates - the first step towards being elected as a delegate to the Republican National Convention.
That's because Iowa's Republican caucuses are non-binding - they are technically just a straw poll, so once selected, delegates are free to vote for whichever presidential candidate they choose.
Takes me back to 2008, begging people not to leave our over-crowded elementary school auditorium while we waited for everyone to sign in. Depending on how long this contest drags out, Paul's delegate-winning strategy may be a factor when the RNC convenes in Tampa. If they pursue this organization, the odds are that Paul will only increase his delegate share, as other also-ran supporters stop bothering with the county, district, and state convention process.
File this next one under "not ready for prime time": TechPresident reports that Santorum's website crashed for 20 minutes last night. The campaign also failed to send a fundraising email right away to capitalize on the results. TechPrez also reviews GOP contenders' websites to see who updated their pages:
Rep. Ron Paul's campaign website still leads with a how-to on caucusing in Iowa; the best real estate on Rep. Michele Bachmann's campaign home page on Wednesday was devoted to selling her book. In the first two of four slides rotating in pride of place on Romney's site, the former Massachusetts governor's campaign emphasized the Iowa victory and a contest in which one lucky campaign donor will spend New Hampshire election night with his team - both of which came with a fund-raising ask. Texas Gov. Rick Perry, who is "re-evaluating" his campaign after a lackluster performance in Iowa, also has a website that doesn't look to have been updated since last night.
Meanwhile, back here in Texas, Jason Stanford says Perry has no one to blame but Perry himself:
Perry's untethered arrogance is the only logical explanation for how a skilled politician flopped so badly as a presidential candidate. In Texas, his campaign team innovated new ways of polling and imposed a scientific rigor on paid communication unheard of at the state level. Strategically, his campaigns minimized risk and but were bold in seizing opportunity where others saw threats. In 2006, he turned a backlash on lax immigration policies into a talking point on border security. In 2009, he came from way behind against Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison by co-opting the Tea Party movement when no other politician would go near it.
None of those political traits showed up in the presidential campaign. Despite an extended exploratory phase this summer, his team did not do the quiet, hard work of a campaign: no polling, no self-research, and no debate prep. Perry's hubris blinded him into giving too much credit to the evangelical supplicants who promised to anoint him as the anti-Romney as soon as he entered the race. His campaign seemed like all he and his consultants did was sit around and tell each other how great it was going to be. No one ever bothered to get ready for the actual campaign.
Got any links you want to share about Iowa? Post 'em in the comments. Otherwise, it's onward to New Hampshire (next Tuesday, Janaury 10), South Carolina (Jan. 21), Florida (Jan. 31) and Nevada! (Feb. 4). Byaaaargh!! |
