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LIGHT OF TRUTH: Saving Capitalism Part 3 - Done Right, Bailouts Work and are Sometimes Necessary


by: Eric Roberson

Sat Nov 19, 2011 at 01:00 PM CST


As the GOP Presidential primary continues, the amount of Tea Party infused, economic Dogma that is mandatory for GOP candidates to accept, but that is wholly unrelated to economic reality, continues to grow like Pinocchio's nose.  In saving Capitalism Part 2, we discussed how the Stimulus actually worked and saved between 2-3 million jobs.  

This week, we will discuss how TARP and the bailouts of GM, Chrysler, and AIG, literally saved American Capitalism as we know it, prevented the loss of over 1 million jobs, stopped a depression from occurring, and since the loans are being repaid with interest, will make the taxpayers a profit.  

In this entire Light of Truth series, my goal is to frame good economic policy in accordance with Mainstream Capitalism, not by the current misguided notions of Tea Party driven Laissez Faire Capitalist Dogma.  Mainstream Capitalism is defined by what works in the real world, not by what is good dogma.  GOP Dogma today is that Capitalism is always good.  Therefore, any government interference with Capitalism is bad.  The historical reality is quite different.  Smart government actions can save jobs, save industries, and if done properly make taxpayers a return on investment.

Recent GOP Statements Against Bailouts
  • Mitt Romney:  "They [GM/Chrysler] needed to move into a managed bankruptcy process rather than getting money up front by President Bush or President Obama. They wasted a lot of money."
  • All 8 GOP Candidates at recent debate: Answered in the negative "Is there anyone here who, given that prospect, and President Bush started the program, given that prospect, anyone here who would have stepped in and said, 'I don't want to do this, but this is the backbone of American manufacturing, I'll do something?'"

And the truth is ....

REALITY CHECK ON TARP and the BAILOUTS

Capitalism is Not Divine; Government Intervention is a Part of Mainstream Capitalism

Even though Capitalism is the best economic system the world has ever known, it is merely a man-made system.  It is not divine  The reality is that the flaws of Capitalism are many, and well known.  The goal of a government in a Capitalistic economy must be two-fold.

First, in a Capitalistic society, it is the economic and moral duty of government to create the infrastructure needed by Capitalism that Capitalism cannot or will not provide for itself in an efficient manner (roads, justice, police, education, fire, social safety nets.

Second, it is the economic and moral duty of government to intervene in the market place to prevent the unnecessary and socially unwanted extremes of unregulated or  Laissez Faire Capitalism.  These extremes include boom and bust cycles, depressions, banking instability, monopolies, trusts, and yes- entire industries facing economic failure when the business cycle has temporarily failed.

Past and Current Bailouts Were Effective, Saved Jobs, Turned Profits, and Were Bi-partisan

What is most amazing about these bailouts is that although being initially bipartisan, and are successful by almost any measure (often making a profit for taxpayers), they remain politically unpopular in many circles - especially in the Dogma-driven GOP.  Indeed, despite savings jobs and industries, and despite a past history that shows they have become necessary about once a decade in the past 50 years, future bailouts appear to be politically untenable unless Mainstream Capitalists start speaking the truth.

(Below the fold is detailed data on how the current Auto and AIG bailouts, and the past bailouts of Airlines in 2001, of the S&L industry in 1989 and of Chrysler in 1979 were succesful and often made money for taxpayers).

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GM/Chrysler Bailout Saves over 1 million jobs

The facts regarding the Auto Bailouts are clear and positive.  The Wall Street Journal has reported  
industry experts at the Center for Automotive Research in Ann Arbor, Michigan, (CAR) as finding the Auto Bailout "appears to be a win for Americans" and "was clearly a very successful policy intervention at a critical time."

Indeed, has estimated the bailouts saved over 1.4 million jobs over 2 years, prevented over an additional $97 Billion in downstream lost income, saved GM and Chrysler from closure, and will allow the government to break even depending on future stock prices.  

The government loaned Chrysler $12.5 Billion, of which $11.2 Billion was repaid.  Chrysler recently reached a contract with the UAW and is hiring.  

The government loaned GM $49.5 Billion, and currently owns 30% of the company.  Since the GM IPO the value of that stock has been fallen and taxpayers are underwater $10-15 Billion depending on daily fluctuation, the fact is the GM's current product line is strong, quality is up, and long term forecasts for the company are good.
The result of the auto bailout, while not complete, clearly are a success.

AIG Set to Repay 100% of $182 Billion in Bailout Loans

According to contemporaneous accounts during the height of the financial crisis the Wall Street Journal reported, after attempting to obtain private financing to bailout AIG, and fearing the collapse of the worldwide insurance giant would cause a ripple effect that would bring down the entire worldwide banking and insurance sectors,  the federal reserve took over AIG in what was described as a "hard bargain" that guaranteed both short term stability in the marketplace, and had significant safeguards for taxpayers.  Initially, the taxpayer expenditure was $85 billion, but the final outlay totaled $182 Billion.

However, the cost was worth it, not only was the financial sector stabilized, but AIG has returned to profitability.  Approximately a year ago AIG still owed $100 Billion to the federal government when the parties announced final plans for the taxpayers to  receive 100% repayment , of all loan amounts.  

These payments continued and as of May 2011,AIG's net debt to the fed had been reduced to $60 Billion with AIG paying interest and principal on time.  "  As of 2011, according to Forbes  AIG is  the 29th largest company in the world.  Until all loans are paid off, to protect US Taxpayers, AIG remains majority owned by the US government.    

Past Bailouts Worked and Were Bipartisan

Historically in US Mainstream Economic Theory, which until recently was embraced by both the GOP and Democrats, when an entire industry faced failure, and the cost of that failure was economically untenable, it was well recognized that the economic duty of government was to serve as a lender of last resort to save that industry and the jobs in it.  

Accordingly, for decades the US government has bailed out entire industries when the industry was otherwise capable of returning to solvency, but was facing a crisis beyond the capability of Capital markets.  Thus, although the amount of public support differed, past government bailouts have been both bipartisan and successful.  

Chrysler Bailout - Saved an Industry; Loan Repaid; Taxpayers Profited

We have had the  Chrysler Bailout, under Jimmy Carter in 1979, which saved a major American company, its suppliers, allowed it to return to profitability, and profited the national treasury $350 Million , when Chrysler paid back the loan in full.  

To be clear, conservative think tanks suggested Chrysler should be allowed to fail, and that saving Chrysler feudalism.  Even so, the legislation received bipartisan support.

The Savings and Loan Bailout - Saved an Industry - Prevented Market Collapse

The savings and loan bailout of 1989 under George H.W. Bush saved the financial sector and prevented the market collapse of the thrift industry and related effects in the entire financial sector.

Although the reasons and the  lessons learned pdf] vary, the total costs to taxpayers was $124 Billion [pdf.  
Unlike the Chrysler bailout, where the txpayer's made a profit,  the benefit to taxpayer's from the S&L Bailout was that the contagion causing the failures of thrifts was contained and did not spread any further to the rest of the financial industry.

Airline Bailout of 2001

After the 9/11 attacks, the airline industry faced a severe crisis.  Like his father's bailout of the Thrift Industry, the George W. Bush Administration offered a $15 Billion of the airline industry that was so successful, even the Wall Street Journal lauds it as an example of effective government intervention to save an industry.    

At the end of the program, the airline sector had been saved, and the government had made loan profits of over $300 million.

CONCLUSION

The world is real, not nirvana.  In the real world, we need police officers, judges, bank examiners, central banks, anti-trust laws, and yes, lenders of last resort.

Although we all wish Capitalism worked without the need of government bailouts, the historical and present fact is that sometimes bailouts are needed.  When they are, government intervention in the form of financial bailouts, when performed with proper safeguards, and in a manner that takes into account market realities, have proven to be successful in saving industries, preserving millions of jobs, preventing market contagion or collapse, and often making taxpayers money in the process.

Although unpopular, Mainstream Capitalists should admit that, when necessary, and when done with proper safeguards, being the lender of last resort to prevent the collapse of major industries is a proper economic and moral duty of government in a modern world.  

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