Yesterday, we looked at a PPP poll that shows how lukewarm the general voting public is on a Rick Perry presidential bid, as he currently narrowly trails Obama. However, it's a different story here in Texas in a potential Republican primary, where Perry leads the rest of the GOP brigade right now. From the poll:
If Rick Perry ran for president, and the choices were Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Sarah Palin, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, Rick Perry, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?
Rick Perry 31%
Mitt Romney 15%
Michele Bachmann 11%
Sarah Palin 9%
Ron Paul 9%
Newt Gingrich 8%
Herman Cain 6%
Tim Pawlenty 2%
Dear God, Please, Someone Else/Not Sure 9%
According to PPP, Perry has surged into the lead since January, when they last ran this poll:
When PPP looked at Texas in January only 9% of Republicans said Perry was their top choice, putting him in 6th place overall and well behind Mike Huckabee's 24%. But Perry's shown a lot more interest in a bid since then, Huckabee's out of the picture, and Gingrich who was in second place at 17% in January has tanked. Perry has likely picked up a lot of the lost support of his fellow southern candidates in the race.
This seems to echo other national analysis I've read on the Republican primary field--essentially Perry is running strong in the South, but seems to be alienating northern / coastal Republicans.
If Perry were not to run, what then?
If Sarah Palin didn't run, and the choices were just Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Jon Huntsman, Ron Paul, Tim Pawlenty, and Mitt Romney, who would you most like to see as the nominee?
Michele Bachmann 19%
Herman Cain 10%
Newt Gingrich 13%
Jon Huntsman 5%
Ron Paul 12%
Tim Pawlenty 7%
Mitt Romney 21%
Seriously, Why Do I Have to Pick Between These Jokes/Not sure 13%
PPP sez:
Those numbers show what's becoming a pretty common pattern--Bachmann leads Romney 22-15 with the 'very conservative' voters who constitute the largest segment of the Republican electorate. But Romney's strength in the middle- leading Bachmann 19-9 with moderates and 21-13 with 'somewhat conservative' voters gives him the overall advantage.
It's an interesting contrast in electorates. A statewide poll shows Perry losing by 2 points in a General Election match-up with Obama (though the 8% of undecideds are pretty anti-Obama in general). In that poll, Perry has a gaping chasm of support from self-described "Independents," 62% of whom view him unfavorably. Yet he runs very strongly with the Republican base, a plurality of which are self-described "very conservative" individuals.
These results are somewhat akin to Nate Silver's great post on how Republican voters, both primary and general-election, are overwhelmingly very conservative, rather than the mix of independents and moderate Republicans we've seen in the past. It's worth a read.
In any case, while the majority of Texans love America too much to want to see Rick Perry to run for President, our Governor still enjoys strong support from the die-hard base here in Texas. That should be concern to all of us, especially if he starts to take hold with Republicans in the many early primary states he's been visiting. |
