Turns Out (So Called) "Push Poll" Was Paid for by Tovo Campaign

Please clarify (0.00 / 0)

The poll mentioned by "the long time user" was described as a push poll for Shade: "when I was polled last time from the company, they were pushing me towards voting for Shade."

Then you point to the fact that the Tovo campaign paid for polls and Shade didn't.

From this you conclude that Tovo paid for a "push poll."

So in your rush to incriminate Tovo, you are arguing that Tovo paid for a push poll against herself. Really?

And you overlooked the fact that Pacs could be paying for a poll or a push poll. So you have not eliminated the possibility that the push poll described in your post was paid for by someone campaigning for Shade even if not by Shade's campaign.  

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 00:45:59 AM UTC

Yes (0.00 / 0)

Because the more complicated explanation is clearly the more likely one.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:22:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In fact (0.00 / 0)

Maybe the Tovo campaign spent $10,000 on polls that they ran solely to make people think that they were run by the Shade campaign so people would complain about her going negative!

I mean who knows what really happened!

/cough

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:26:30 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Whoa. You are pretending to know what happened. (0.00 / 0)

You said Tovo paid for a push poll against herself.

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:28:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does that mean (0.00 / 0)

Which is the more complicated explanation. That Tovo paid to run a push poll against herself or that you are wrong.

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:26:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's even less complicated than that (3.00 / 2)

It wasn't a push poll and it wasn't paid for by Randi Shade. So maybe instead of making accusations that Shade is a Republican, using Rovian tactics, and running push polls we could take a breather.

That's what I'm saying. I will clarify the post as the the subtle ironic humor isn't showing through properly.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:43:53 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have made no such accusations (0.00 / 0)

I was responding to this headline:

"Turns Out "Push Poll" Was Paid for by Tovo Campaign"

Turns out that was false. And it only took me five posts to get you to admit it.

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 01:59:09 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

What's there to admit? (0.00 / 0)

It's in "" because those are the words of someone else, words I do not want attributed to me because a) I don't believe it's a push poll and argued in the comments of the last post about that very fact, and b) because of legal liability. I like Tyson and would rather not be sued for someone else's choice of words.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:18:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Keep dancing. Its getting entertaining. (1.00 / 1)

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:51:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

if you want to duke it out over pollsters ... (0.00 / 0)

here's a nice juicy punch: Shade's C&E lists payments to Mike Baselice. He is on her payroll for a sweet $14,900.

yeah - that's Governor Good Hair's very own tame pollster.

I repeat: Shade paid Mike Baselice $14,900 on May 24 for "polling and research" for her campaign.

here's what the Texas Tribune says about Baselice in its Tribpedia:

Michael "Mike" Baselice is the president of Austin-based polling firm Baselice & Associates and described by the San Antonio Express-News as "perhaps the top Republican pollster in the state."

He specializes in polling for Republican candidates, but his clients also include issue advocacy groups and referendum projects.

Over the last two decades, Baselice has conducted more 1,800 quantitative and qualitative research projects. One of his main clients is current Texas Governor Rick Perry.

....................
and, from the Baselice & Associates own website:

In 1987, Michael produced the first ever ORVS (Optimal Republican Voting Strength) manual in the nation for the Republican Party of Texas. The ORVS was created so districts could be compared on an apples-to-apples basis for the purpose of candidate recruitment and later, resource allocation and helping party officials avoid allocating resources to districts that cannot be won.

Randi, just give it up and admit it:  you're a Republican. I only mention this because K-T made such an epic issue out of Shade's nominal political affiliation in his previous post.

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by: leslie pool @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 04:16:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Baselice is probably the best pollster in Texas (0.00 / 0)

I not going to defend anyone's choice of pollster but just about any political professional on either side of the aisle would likely agree that Baselice does the best polling in the state. So if a Democrat wants to take the hit for paying them money for a poll, at least they can temper their souls knowing they are going to get their money's worth.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 04:29:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

wrong, on many levels. (3.00 / 1)

just as I refused to allow our fundraiser to seek, let alone accept, money from gary bradley when I chaired a county bond election committee, I would ab.so.lute.ly and never hire or choose to pay anyone whose ultimate goal is complete disenfranchisement of persons & issues that I fundamentally care about. it's not always a game, K-T.

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by: leslie pool @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 04:42:29 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not defending it (0.00 / 0)

Though I think people would like to think that I am.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 05:00:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think Shade is a Republican. I think she is a Democrat. (0.00 / 0)

But her campaign is being heavily financed by real estate interests. These are the same interests that fund Republican candidates at every level of government. Since Republican money is running Shade's campaign, I would not be surprised, if it is true, that she is using pollsters that primarily work for Republicans. She is their candidate. She wants to turn the page on the environmentalists.

The development  interests  are trying to buy this election for Shade. If she wins the runoff she will owe it to the builders, developers and their lobbyists. Put differently, she could not possibly win the runoff without their money. When all is said and done, they will probably have spent over $200,000 - maybe well over -- to save her campaign. She will owe her victory to them. They will not let her forget it, as if she could forget or even wants to.

The development community is probably the most powerful interest in the State. They have supported/elected all of our Republican office holders. They share power with the insurance companies, oil and gas companies, and doctors, of course, but they are one of the most powerful interests in the State. What this runoff will determine is whether they control the Council as well. The  are supporting Shade for a reason.  If they pull this out for Shade they will be well on their way.

So Shade is a Democrat but the kind of Democrat that Republican developers can love. At least that is what their money is saying.

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 05:19:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think you are off message (0.00 / 0)

I thought that Shade was a Republican straight up, and that there was no chance of her winning the runoff so she shouldn't contest the election. Is the wind no longer blowing in the same direction???

I tease. You know, most of those things could and were said about Kirk Watson. And you see where that got him. The thing with Kirk is that he was just so much better at threading the needle.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 05:27:32 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

It is not the way the wind is blowing. It is the way the $ is flowing (0.00 / 0)

You can't compare Kirk to anyone.

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 15:49:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Since I'm dragged back into this one... (3.00 / 2)

Since I don't know the purpose of the poll (obviously since I am not on the Tovo, Shade, or any connected PACs to Austin), I think that me feeling as though it's a push poll (whether it was or not) is the problem. Since I haven't run campaigns in Texas, I don't know or have worked with The Tyson Organization (which they didn't use to identify themselves either, you helped me with that KT), so I won't implicate their name in being a push poll if this was not one.

My initial post was made out of anger at receiving a call from a pollster who lead me to believe the poll wasn't a scientific one. He didn't identify at the start of the call and sounded like he was talking on a cell phone. These are cues for me that send up red flags. He may have been a frazzled pollster who decided to end the call when confronting a more hostile caller, which was probably true. I wouldn't have been hostile though if I didn't think something was fishy, and having been previously push-polled in Austin city council races, I may have been just tilting at windmills here. Fair enough.

I certainly urge the Tovo campaign, if they were the ones that petitioned for this poll, to reexamine their questions in the future. It felt like an unbalanced series of hit questions on Tovo, with no Shade lines, when I presented as a neutral voter. Perhaps they were testing for what attacks might work against her, but it sure felt like they were doing the attacking in the first place. Again, no clue, since I didn't issue the poll, but if I wasn't such an avid voter, I can see how the poll itself would not turn me out to vote.

Either way, I quickly got over the incident and voted anyway, dispassionately and strictly on the issues each campaign had presented before I was polled, so no harm, no foul for me. KT, I do appreciate your attempts to educate the public to what push polls are, but it's also up to the pollsters themselves to realize that some of us are educated enough to know what to look for in push polls and to avoid them. Perhaps their effort to remove bias in this instance actually instilled a perception of bias, or maybe that's just me tilting some more. I do hope that you won't have a heart attack over all this though, as you seem to be quite up in arms over my comments, something completely unintentional.

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by: tbobmccoy @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:56:30 AM UTC

PS: I like you (0.00 / 0)

No need to grill me over here. I wasn't trying to get you into any legal hot water and if you want, I'll delete my comments altogether. I'm actually a bit tickled to have any sort of billing on the front page of BOR, having been a reader for far longer than my created date signifies. Working at the Capitol made me too wary (or paranoid) of press to post anything before I left the Pink Dome.  

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by: tbobmccoy @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 02:58:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree with Centex's comment below (5.00 / 1)

I too appreciate your comments and have no quarrel with you. :) This is one of those things where I want to make it clear that I'm not taking issue with you personally. It's more focused on illuminating concerns borne out of passion when other information reveals that something else is going on. Don't feel like you need to delete anything, I certainly have no issue with it, but that's always your call.

I will correct myself. Maybe it wasn't a good job if the poll sounded so one sided that it people thought it was something other than it was. The Tyson folks do a quality job in general, that's why I thought it was strange.

But you are still totally on point with feeling upset- I would too if it were really run with the intention to be a push poll, and would probably express exactly the same concerns even if it was a campaign I was supporting. There are some standard that all political professionals, regardless of party, should agree to hold true to. Unfortunately, we're not all unionized that way!  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 03:14:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Appreciate your comments. I have and had no quarrel with you. (0.00 / 0)

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by: Centex @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 03:06:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Wait till it's over to check all the campaign filings (0.00 / 0)

The post-election filings by the PACs of RECA,the other special interest groups and outfits like Michael Levy's portentous "Committee for Even Minimally Sane and Rational Government in Austin" may produce a definitive answer to the question of who paid to the push poll. Considering the scare-mongering, fear-inducing tenor and tone of Levy's mass mailing and of Shade's TV ads and mailers, complete with grainy doctored pictures of her opponent, in juxtaposition with the content of the push poll, is there anyone willing to bet lunch that the source of those funds  is not somewhere in the Shade camp? Remember that it was a front-page article in the Statesman several months after the election in which Brewster McCracken defeated Margot Clarke that reported that the Austin Police Association's PAC was used to launder $30,000 from the Real Estate Council of Austin that paid for mailers. Correct me if I'm wrong, but wasn't Michael Levy peddling the same fear tactics on behalf of McCracken that he employs in every election---unless the Establishment's
candidate wins the public safety will suffer, emergency services will be impaired, and the damage to police and fire protection will cause loss of life. He's never lacked for less than a 4-3 majority on the Council since he's been publicly involved, his endorsed candidates have been beating the ones that I've voted for, but he's still trying to scare the daylights out of people with the same scare tactics.  

  Dave Shapiro

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by: Dave Shapiro @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 03:41:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

mystery (5.00 / 1)

I love how you didn't say anything about the poll in the other thread when it was assumed it was done by Randi Shade, but now that it's shown that the poll was done by Kathie (and that it wasn't a push poll), instead of just accepting it and moving on, we're now creating a new theory that there simply must be some other as of yet unheard of poll that is actually a push poll and is somehow tied to the Shade campaign even though there is zero evidence of such a thing.

I've forgotten how much I have I've missed BOR comment threads.  

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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Sat Jun 11, 2011 at 03:54:27 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mud is flying all around (3.40 / 5)

Sitting on my dining room counter are:

1) An over-the-top hit piece by Mark Levy on Kathie Tovo,
2) An almost-as-over-the-top hit piece by the Sierra Club on Randi Shade,
3) A hit piece by the Tovo campaign on Shade that quotes the Sierra Club piece, and
4) A letter from neighbors (paid for by the Tovo campaign) that actually has something favorable to say.

The point is, this has become a free-for-all, with a lot of exaggerated and downright false accusations. Let's not add to the mix.  On the "push poll", it's clear that Shade didn't commission it, so scratch that accusation off your list. Tovo did pay for it, maybe to gauge her own vulnerabilities (a sensible tactic, BTW). End of story.

Let's stick to what each candidate has done or would do on the council, instead of wading through the gutter. I agree a lot more with Shade than Tovo on the issues, and I trust Shade's judgment better, so I'm voting for Shade. Other people agree more with Tovo and are voting for her. Fine! Just don't paint either one of them as a fire-breathing dragon, an agent from Mordor, or a Republican.  

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by: LSadun @ Sun Jun 12, 2011 at 04:50:50 AM UTC

Sound advice. (2.00 / 1)

I can't know what you saw, but the Sierra Club mailer I got quoted Shade's email to the City Manager and noted that she is the developer/lobbyist backed candidate which is true. Nothing over the top about that. Again, maybe you got something different.

You can never know for sure what someone will do on the Council. I voted for Shade when she first ran. Because of what she did on the Council I am voting for Tovo. I am comforted in my decision by the fact that the developer's have so much confidence in her. I respect your and everyone else's right to disagree.

I do appreciate the fact that you placed Republicans in the same class as fire-breathing dragons and Mordor. I checked the lobbyist filings and neither candidate is registered as an agent of Mordor, so you were absolutely correct.

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by: Centex @ Sun Jun 12, 2011 at 06:05:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The Opposite of Levy (3.00 / 2)

As a general rule, I've found it best to vote for the candidate that Mike Levy is eagerly trying to tear down.

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by: McBlogger @ Sun Jun 12, 2011 at 18:06:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

last try...with feeling (3.00 / 2)

jesus h. cristo.

IT WAS NOT A PUSH POLL.

If you think it was, you are either too impassioned (read: biased) or too stupid to understand.

Now I loathe getting involved in ATX politics because an utter lack of perspective and observance of blatant facts permeates every discussion...but come on!!!

1) if you don't understand what quotes around a few words mean, I'll refer you to Friends...ask Joey.

2) the call was identified as legally required. The company in question would never, ever engage in a wholly unethical and immoral act as was purported to have occurred.

3) No, I don't think Shade should have stayed in the runoff...but, Yes, I think she has a legit shot to win.

4) Baselice is a great pollster, but I'd never hire him. I'm a Democrat. Who wants Rick Perry's sloppy seconds? Put your money where your mouth is.  Buy D.

5) Any poll that doesn't examine HOW a constituency moves when presented with contrasting messages is a total waste. Send me the check and I'll pull a number out of my ass and it will be just as accurate.

6) Settle the F down. The fact of the matter (apparent to the rest of the world) is that the City of Austin (under varied leadership) for the past 20 years has allowed growth upon growth upon growth.  At least a majority consistently fostered a ridiculous level of sprawl and growth that has nearly ruined one of the jewels of Texas.  Why is downtown making a resurgence?? BECAUSE IT TAKES 2 FUCKING HOURS TO COMMUTE TO WORK. Instead of making downtown/near downtown living a mission, current and prior councilmembers sanctioned sprawl on steroids.  And no amount of reverse engineering will erase the damage to the natural landscape and beauty that has drawn Texans to this city for 200 years. I hate to be the surly, old guy who breaks it to you...but neither candidate (from my perspective) has made a compelling case that they would do much more than the other to give us back Austin.  The mere fact that virtually no one bothers to vote in City Council races should be the biggest indicator that they are missing mark entirely. If you can't even do enough to piss people off in large numbers, you aren't even trying.

Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Mon Jun 13, 2011 at 22:50:15 PM UTC

No growth can't work here (2.00 / 1)

There's one simple question to ask those who think that the city council was bad for not stopping growth in its tracks:

If Austin did what Jeff Jack and Laura Morrison and Kathie Tovo want and banned all construction of new housing in the city limits, how much support do you think the state would give us in stopping housing unit construction directly outside the city limits?

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by: m1ek @ Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 13:31:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Minor detail: your premise is false. (1.00 / 1)

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by: Centex @ Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 15:25:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sorry i'm so late on this (0.00 / 0)

i don't really care about help from the state.

Austin has extended her limits and ETJ to the ends of the earth. Furthermore, Austin proper dominates Travis County. If there had been/was now real leadership on the issue, the case would be made and action would be taken.

I first moved to Austin in the summer of '94. Unfortunately, I have witnessed first-hand the degradation of Austin and too many missed opportunities.

As I observe the existing mayor and council from an outsider's perspective, I see limited vision and action for modernizing Austin into the progressive, urban center that it should be.

The city leaders could have (and still could) take many, basic actions to keep growth in check. And, if they are going to allow unfettered growth, that new growth should be compelled to meet the highest standards of efficiency, affordability and access to mobility. But to allow the continued sprawling of construction of virtually the same single-family structures from 1998 down 2-lane streets/roads that cannot even manage their existing traffic load is irresponsible at best and asinine at worst.

Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 16:06:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Again, this is foolish (0.00 / 0)

Suburban crap can and does locate immediately outside the city limits/ETJ of Austin. And our authority to regulate land use EVEN INSIDE OUR OWN BOUNDARIES is subject to the caprice of the state.

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by: m1ek @ Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 17:10:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

okay, genius (0.00 / 0)

i knew before responding that you would assert your all-knowing positions on issues regardless of the facts poured before you in concrete and crepe myrtle trees.

you win. a city has virtually no authority to regulate growth. the city of austin did everything they could to manage growth over the last 20 years responsibly. happy?

you can hide behind the "outside the city limits" argument to avoid the point i'm making. i'm fine with that. as someone who loves austin, it pains me personally to see tens of thousands of model homes INSIDE THE CITY change the unique landscape and character of austin.


Please refer to KT's signature.

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by: colin @ Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 18:29:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Growth rates (0.00 / 0)

Greater Austin has been doubling in population every 20 years for that last 150 years. The one constant thing is that people who have lived here a while (who are always the minority!) always complain that the quaint livable city they moved to or grew up in has been lost. The newcomers repeat the same refrain 20 years later.

The difference in the last 20 years is that most of the growth has occurred outside the city limits, and that population growth in Austin proper has slowed way down, especially in the last 10 years. Partly this is because it has become harder for the city to annex more land. Partly it's because the suburbs (especially in Williamson County) have encouraged growth and have developed their own economic base.

The question for the city isn't whether to allow growth or even how much growth to allow, but how to manage that growth. Do you promote infill or build new freeways to the suburbs? Where do you build infrastructure? And so on.

A complication is that a lot of construction isn't driven by higher population, but by higher per-capita consumption. The house across the street from me that once held a family of 5 now houses a single person. It will never house 5 people again, since nowadays we all demand more personal space. The planning process has to address changing lifestyles and tastes as much as actual growth.

The bottom line is that it's a really tough problem, with a lot of subtleties that don't fit into the "pro-developer vs. pro-environment" or "growth vs. neighborhoods" story lines. Unfortunately, the political system is built around those lines, which means that a lot of decisions are NOT well-considered. As control of the council bounces back and forth, we get attempts to limit growth that only reduce quality of life (the "if we don't build it they won't come" fallacy), followed by free-for-all construction binges.

BTW, I moved to Austin exactly 20 years ago, when the Arboretum was at the northern edge of the universe, and when the radio would warn us to "expect 3-5 minute traffic delays on MoPac". That city is long gone, and we're not getting it back.  

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by: LSadun @ Wed Jun 22, 2011 at 19:41:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Push poll? I thought you said Bush poll ... (3.67 / 3)

... nevermind.

"The eyes of the people are fast opening! Fight on!"--Andrew Jackson

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by: Al Stanley @ Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 08:59:41 AM UTC

Huh? (1.00 / 1)

You want us to believe Tovo paid for a push poll against herself by the 'proof' that Shade hasn't reported the push polls she paid for?

If Burnt Orange is comprised of "Good Democrats" - let's take a look at what a "Good Dem" Shade is:  http://www.austinpost.org/cont...

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by: Deb @ Tue Jun 14, 2011 at 15:13:28 PM UTC

posts (0.00 / 0)

Just an FYI Deb, your one line diary was removed because it doesn't follow the previously laid out rules of this site.

3) Substantive posts only: No one line posts or cut and paste press releases. // Journals violating these rules may be deleted without notice.


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by: Karl-Thomas Musselman @ Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 02:16:48 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Go back and read the post and discussion with Centex. (0.00 / 0)

If after doing so you still believe that K-T is trying to say "Tovo paid for a push poll against herself," just remember that it will all be moot on Sunday.

"The eyes of the people are fast opening! Fight on!"--Andrew Jackson

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by: Al Stanley @ Wed Jun 15, 2011 at 07:06:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]