| If you are anything like Phillip, you believe that local Austin elections are decided by a machine of Democratic groups that often exercise in groupthink and comprise almost all the opinion-makers in these races.
If you're more like him, you hate that. But that's how elections often work in this town. With three incumbents up for reelection at City Hall, it's time for a little update.
Before Council Members Randi Shade, Chris Riley, and Laura Morrison even hired their reelection teams, most observers thought that the three were in pretty good shape. They also thought that, if anyone was in any trouble at all, it was Council Member Shade, who has critics from both left and right. If club endorsements are the guide, those initial guesses were true. All three Council Members seem to be leading their races.
The following Democratic organizations (in a relative timeline order) have endorsed the following candidates:
North by Northwest Democrats: Chris Riley (Place 1), Kathie Tovo and Randi Shade dual endorsement (Place 3), Laura Morrison (Place 4)
Black Austin Democrats: Chris Riley, Kathie Tovo, Laura Morrison
Austin Tejano Democrats: Chris Riley, Laura Morrison
South Austin Democrats: Chris Riley, Kathie Tovo, Laura Morrison
Capital Area Progressive Democrats: Chris Riley, Kathie Tovo, Laura Morrison
Circle C Area Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
University Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
Central Austin Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
Austin Progressive Coalition*: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
Capital Area Asian American Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
Capital City Young Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade, Laura Morrison
West Austin Democrats: Chris Riley, Randi Shade and Kathie Tovo (dual endorsement), Laura Morrison
*NOTE: The University Democrats and the Central Austin Democrats are the two organizations that come together to make the Austin Progressive Coalition (APC), which endorses candidates that both other clubs endorse. When APC endorses candidates, it prints and distributes thousands of fliers to help elect them.
Chris RIley and Laura Morrison have received every single Democratic club endorsement thus far, and so long as they maintain normal, active campaigns; losses by them would come as major surprises. Morrison was supposed to have tough opposition from radio-man Toby Ryan, but he's fared very poorly in the endorsement game (not even showing at many endorsement meetings!). Ryan's campaign hopes to reach out to non-traditional voters for victory, but they'll likely need quite a few of them.
Not counting APC, Randi Shade leads opponent Kathie Tovo in Democratic club endorsemetns 7-5. Tovo started strong out of the gate, and her biggest victory was with the South Austin Democrats, a big organization that has sent city council mailings in the past. Council Member Shade won the biggest prize when she won the APC endorsement: their mail and enthusiasm may very well put her over the top.
The Place 3 race is also interesting in that the opposition support for Kathie Tovo seems to come entirely within the establishment. The University Democrats, always made up of members new to the scene, has a history of endorsing anti-establishment and challenger candidates more often than other organizations. In their endorsement vote, Randi Shade received over 80%.
That said, the Tovo-Shade race is still a competitive one, and the endorsement game is close enough that the field campaigns will make the difference over the next month. With other candidates on the ballot, too, a runoff won't be surprising. I wouldn't be surprised to see the incumbent win without a runoff, either.
With city council talking about single member districts, this may be one of the last times that every Democratic club has quite this type of influence on the council. With a mid-May election, there's one other thing that can still swing things, too. You'll still need to vote.
Disclosure: I am now a public supporter for all the incumbents (Riley, Shade, and Morrison). I am also the President Emeritus of the University Democrats. |