| I'm catching up on some key stories before heading out for Thanksgiving back home in Fredericksburg with Mayor Tom Musselman and the First Frau. Chief among those would be city politics in Austin. While last week wasn't the start of filing for office, it was the beginning of the fundraising period and public announcements by incumbents as to whether they are running for re-election.
Places 1, 3, and 4 are on next May's ballot and incumbents Chris Riley, Randi Shade, and Laura Morrison have all announced they are running for re-election with the following treasurers and advisors.
Place 1: Chris Riley
Democratic and neighborhood activist Mike Clark-Madison will serve as treasurer of Riley's re-election campaign. Longtime Austin political consultant David Butts will help lead the campaign, with support from fundraising consultant Susan Harry, who also worked for Riley's 2009 campaign. More information is available at Riley's re-election campaign website: www.ChrisforAustin.com.
Announced challengers include former Mayoral candidate Josiah Ingalls who received less than 1% of the vote in the 2009 contest against Lee Leffingwell. Riley won Leffingwell's unexpired term that year and as a result is back on the ballot aiming for a full term.
The only other rumors in the race involve Austinites for Action's Dominic Chavez who was one of a handful of people opposing this November's Proposition 1 Mobility Bond campaign. Chavez is also considering running against Laura Morrison in Place 4 but has yet to make a decision on which seat he'd prefer to run in, if either. The only thing that's different about the two seats is the margin Chavez would lose by and how much money he'd have to waste in the process.
Place 3: Randi Shade
Of the three races, this is the "hottest" but that's still not saying much. Burnt Orange Report's Katherine Haenschen, who's coming off leading the 2010 Travis County Democratic Party coordinated campaign and managed Riley's 2009 successful campaign, will be managing Shade's race. Susan Harry will serve as Shade's fundraiser. Well known consultants Mike Blizzard and Mark Littlefield will act in advisory roles.
Shade is up for her first re-election bid after defeating incumbent Jennifer Kim with 64% of the vote in 2008 which was nearly equal to then Councilmember Lee Leffingwell's margin against Jason Meeker & Friends. Shade definitely has a base from which to start but this race is already being defined as a referendum on the incumbent, much like her original race three years ago. Shade has not been one of the more visible councilmembers due in part to her governing style as well as the birth of her second child Emme just two months after taking a seat on the council dias- something Shade's campaign acknowledged in their first email to supporters.
Rumors of challengers started back in October with much of the attention being focused on former Democratic State Representative Ann Kitchen who was being urged to challenge Shade focusing on the debate over Water Treatment Plant #4. WTP4 has split the local environmental community and the council with a series of 4-3 votes pushing the project forward. Kitchen has since withdrawn her name according to the Austin Chronicle leaving environmental activist Robin Rather's name in the mix.
Rather would be a credible candidate and would occupy a lot of space to Randi's left flank which is somewhat exposed with quiet grumblings among some union players and some members of the GLBT community who don't see Shade as a fierce advocate on their behalf. But the talk about Shade keeps coming back to the Water Treatment Plant which isn't a broad enough or damaging single issue for a challenger to run on. Based on polling I've seen over the last two years, the public is pleased with the city council at above average levels and messaging around WTP4 actually works in Shade's favor. As much as people are pro-conservation in this town, when push comes to shove, they aren't willing to risk their water supply to two half century old water treatment plants (already down from three) as the city doubles in population yet again by ~2030.
I hate to say this 6 months out from the election, but the clock is ticking. If the forces behind Kitchen and now Rather don't formalize an announcement by the second week of December they will be severely weakened. That means they would have to be canvassing key voters and city political players right now to get their ducks in a row in time; every day that goes by in this 'silent campaign' period is one day closer to victory for incumbents. Even for the "buzziest" of the 3 seats, there has been remarkably little chatter, leaving Shade an opportunity to solidify some of her more 'squishy' support and pull in a lot of cash.
Place 4: Laura Morrison
Consultant David Butts will be chief consultant to Laura Morrison's re-election bid with Jim Wick filling in a campaign manager. Wick was largely responsible for Karen Sage's upset victory over Mindy Montford in the 2008 judicial primaries and recently led Rep. Valinda Bolton's field campaign. Dean Rindy will be the media consultant with Jeff Smith as pollster and former Leffingwell field hand Shawn Badgley doing field.
Morrison has evolved and grown into her position on the dais- and in a good way from most anyone you talk to. She's disarmed many potential opponents and does not have any announced challenged other than the same rumors of Dominic Chavez (see my notes under the Place 1 area). If you asked folks 3 years ago if Shade or Morrison would have a tougher re-election the vast majority would have said Morrison, myself included. That appears to be wrong. Morrison has shored up her (non-neighborhood) left flank since being elected and doesn't face any particular issues with the environmental community (she voted with Riley opposite of Shade on WTP4). That doesn't leave a lot of space for a challenger, at least among the traditional city electorate and power bases.
I expect that all three council members will end up being re-elected, continuing a long period of stability on the city council. It's quite possible that we'll have a 5 year stretch of the Leffingwell/Martinez/Cole/Shade/Morrison/Spelman/Riley council- at least until Austin votes on an expected Single-Member District plan in 2012 which could alter the makeup of the dias considerably. And both of those things, and in that order, might be what Austin needs as it finalizes a number of major long range planning processes in the next couple of years. |
