With the only polling in the 17th Congressional district coming from the Republican candidate Bill Flores, it's not entirely surprising that Democratic incumbent Chet Edwards would share his numbers as well.
Yesterday the Edwards campaign released internal polling showing he's trailing Flores by 4 points, as compared to the 12 point deficit Flores's poll showed three weeks ago. Edwards' longtime pollster Bennett, Petts & Normington released a memo outlining their findings.
Findings from our most recent survey conducted October 4-5 show Chet Edwards gaining ground and moving into a tight race with challenger Bill Flores. Over the lass 3 weeks Edwards has cut Flores' margin by more than half, with the race closing from ten points own to only four. Currently, Edwards received 42% of the vote while Flores receives 46% and 11% are still undecided in the race for Congress in TX-17. In a district where Republicans outnumber Democrats by a margin of two-to-one, Chet Edwards is in a neck-and-neck race with his opponent.
The Edwards campaign stated their internal numbers had him down 10 points three weeks ago, which would track with the Flores campaign poll from that time showing a 12 point gap. That gives some credibility to Edwards's release, even with it being partisan internal numbers, because they appear to mirror Flores's partisan internal numbers.
While the DCCC has canceled a week's worth of airtime from October 19-25th, Chet Edwards has picked up the endorsement of the Dallas Morning News. But GOP 2008 Presidential nominee John McCain has cut an ad for Bill Floresin the midst of a multi-million dollar tv ad war which Texas writer Nate Nance has compiled at the Huffington Post.
If Chet were able to pull out a victory next month in the most Republican district held by a Democrat in the U.S. House- especially this cycle- it would be the upset of the year and a testament to the relationship he has built with voters in his district (as well as his field operation).
