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Wed Sep 29, 2010 at 03:50 PM CDT
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I'll be the first to say that I don't put a lot of stock in this Republican poll that shows Patrick McGuinness, the GOP challenger in HD-50, less than 2% behind incumbent Mark Strama.
In the race for House District 50 in northern Travis County, 49.7% of those polled now say they favor Republican challenger Patrick McGuinness over incumbent Democrat Mark Strama, who garnered 48.1% in a Gateway Research Group poll conducted in the first week of September. 2.2% of those polled were undecided in this race.
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The Gateway Research Group* is part of the Austin-based Gateway Policy Group. The poll was conducted between August 28 and September 6, 2010 and sampled voters in HD 50. (Questions can be directed to Dr. Greg Hupp or Trey Newton at 512-477-3100.)
*The Gateway Policy Group is a conservative outfit co-founded by Trey Newton, formerly of Wilson Research Strategies, the Texas Center for Public Policy Research, and then Republican Carole Keeton Strayhorn.
This poll is way out of line with other (unpublished) polling that shows Strama comfortably ahead. This smells like a poll crafted and released with the sole purpose to cause more hope than really exists for the McGuiness campaign- and to gin up contributions for a candidate who had just $10,000 in the bank to Strama's $140,000 as of the last campaign finance report. And while I don't expect Strama to roll up a 30 point victory like he did in 2008, the environment isn't so bad that districts like Strama's are legitimate takeover opportunities for the Texas GOP. |
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