Now that the long primary season is over the sprint to the general election has began, and the struggle to control the narrative continues. The Republicans are going to try and promote the narrative that this election is about repudiating the agenda of the Obama Administration and Congressional Democrats, while attempting to use the enthusiasm of the Tea Party without losing to many elections in places like Delaware and New York. The Democrats are going to be trying to tout some of their legislative achievements while ignoring others, and they will be using their fundraising advantage to ensure that their Senate and House majorities are not taken without a fight. The question that will be answered is how will each party be able to affect the narrative, and how will that affect the polls and subsequently the election. So, what do the polls look like now?
According to analysis by Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight (now at the New York Times), the Republicans have a two-in-three chance of winning the majority in the House and a one-in-four chance of winning the majority in the Senate. The current conventional wisdom seems to be that the Republicans are going to win the majority in the House and slim the Democratic majority in the Senate. The forecast vary, but only a few analysts are predicting that the Democrats will be able to maintain control of the House. John Sides at the Monkey Cage created a useful graph of the predictions that shows that most are predicting the Democrats are going to be on the wrong side of the majority in the House.
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Despite the apparent Republican advantage, they are not exactly the most popular team (fortunately for Republicans and Democrats third parties are relegated to minor league status). According to a recent Gallup Poll, Republicans and Democrats are tied at 46% among registered voters, which marks a shift from a Republican advantage but continues a trend throughout the year that has shown the public going back and forth congressional voting preferences. However, the poll also shows a 25 point gap in the all important enthusiasm measure as 50% of Republicans described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting. Despite the voting preferences both parties are equally disliked it seems. The generic ballot split between Democrats and Republicans was replicated in the Politico/George Washington University Battleground poll, as Republicans and Democrats were tied at 43%. According to another recent Gallup poll, Congressional Democrats have 33% approval rating and Congressional Republicans have 32% approval rating. While both parties enjoy support within their own parties of over 60%, independent voters approve of Congressional Democrats and Republicans is 24% and 25%, respectfully.
Then there is Texas. This election cycle there is not a Senate seat up for election, and only two house races appear to be competitive (TX-17 and TX-23). However, the gubernator race does appear to be competitive, and you can beat that as Election Day draws near the polls will tighten and you won't be able to watch much television without seeing either an advertisement for Republican Governor Rick Perry or Democratic Challenger Bill White. According to a University of Texas/Texas Tribune poll released this week, Perry currently leads White 39%-33% with a 3.5% margin of error. However, the Governor only enjoys a 40% approval rating, but Republicans lead the generic ballot in Texas 48%-33%. The Talking Points Memo PollTracker shows that the Texas gubernatorial campaign has been tightening, but if White expects to upset Perry he is going to swing a significant amount of the undecideds his way. If this was any other year Perry would not be this close to spending a third term in the governor's mansion.
