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HD 133: Rep. Kristi Thibaut (D) vs. Jim Murphy (R)


by: Phillip Martin, Progress Texas

Tue Sep 07, 2010 at 03:50 PM CDT


Ed. note: The following is one of twenty races we are featuring in the Texas Political Report. Annie's List provided research and analysis for this race.

Candidate Pages: Rep. Kristi Thibaut website, on Facebook, on Twitter
Candidate Pages: Jim Murphy website, on Facebook, on Twitter

District Overview: The Numbers, The Issues, and the Candidates

District 133 is situated in the west side of Houston, outside the 610 Loop. The district has two distinct communities. The southern half is centered in the Alief area, with significant Latino, African-American, and Vietnamese populations. The northern half contains the wealthier, Anglo Memorial community. A majority minority district, Rep. Thibaut and Jim Murphy have been battling back and forth to represent it since 2006, when Murphy won against Thibaut. In 2008, Thibaut claimed victory by just 497 votes. This decidedly middle-of-the-road district split 51.9% for Obama in 2008 and many analysts say it has a small "undecided" swing voter population, meaning elections often rely on who can get the most voters to the polls.

In the Legislature, Rep. Thibaut  has proven herself as one of the most effective and aggressive members of the Texas House. She was named ‘Freshman of the Year' by her peers in the House Democratic Caucus and served in key roles on two conference committees that tackled foreclosure rules for struggling homeowners and university entrance requirements. Meanwhile, Jim Murphy has moved farther to the right in what appears to be an attempt to sweep up surge voters in an tough year for Democrats, but a fire destroying all the Harris County voting machines has brought attention to the election, and that, coupled with Bill White’s popularity in the county should spin turnout for both sides.

Why Rep. Kristi Thibaut Will Return Next Year

Rep. Kristi Thibaut has a strong record in her first term in the legislature going into Round Three with Murphy, and she knows her opponent. She has the mixed blessing of incumbency, a great team, and a strong field plan. She has used the office to help her district in concrete ways, including hosting job fairs, school supply drives, a Veterans Benefits District Fair and more. Rep. Thibaut is running an aggressive grassroots voter contact program and we should look for a healthy amount of advertising on cable TV as well.  A Harris County district, where Bill White took more than 85% of the vote for mayor – twice – Thibaut could also be helped out by turnout for the governor’s race. This race will be a close one to watch all the way until Election Day, as -- along with Rep. Diana Maldonado in HD 52 -- Thibaut is one of the top targets for Republicans this November.

June 30 Campaign Finance Report:

HD 133: Thibaut vs. MurphyContributions
Expenditures
Cash on Hand
Rep. Kristi Thibaut (D)
$116,363$48,002$150,012
Jim Murphy (R)
$111,752
$62,630
$124,915
Thibaut's Advantage
$4,611 -$25,097

 

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Murphy's Law (0.00 / 0)
Kristi won this seat on the strength of the "Obama Factor".
Without it, she loses. Rubber game to Murphy.

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